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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 8)

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  • MKnight98
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    #1203217306

    When can we predict the VFX shortlist in the center?

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  MKnight98.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  MKnight98.
    John Berchmans
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    #1203217324

    Just saw Bombshell missed AFI too. That’s looks dead in BP. Looking forward to watching it though and rest of screeners that came in the mail while I was gone!

    I’m starting to worry about Bombshell. It seems like a strong contender right now, but bad reviews and a lack of precursor buzz could easily sink it. And right now it looks like at least one of those things will happen.

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    Victor Cruz
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    #1203217328

    Just saw Bombshell missed AFI too. That’s looks dead in BP. Looking forward to watching it though and rest of screeners that came in the mail while I was gone!

    Vice missed both too. lol

    TVFan365
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    #1203217403

    I think this may be a year of 9 nominees for best picture. My guess is that it will be all of the AFI films minus Knives Out and Richard Jewell.

    JackO
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    #1203217423

    Vice missed both too. lol

    Not buying this as a Vice comp. Little Women and 1917 already have the BP late comers covered. Also doesnt really fit the pattern of films that miss as Bombshell has zero shot at directing and it’s not a british indie film. I could see some films that missed today hit PGA and throw folks off. AFI is very good at nailing the obvious films for BP.

    MMartin
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    #1203217476

    Then again it only showcases more for how out of touch the Oscars are

    No it doesn’t, just because something is the highest grossing film of the year doesn’t mean the Academy has to nominate it. They have ignored plenty of genre blockbusters better than Endgame before: Terminator 2/Jurassic Park/Who Framed Roger Rabbit, and oh so many animated films from Fantasia to The Incredibles.

    And I am all for the Academy nominating more genre films, movies like The Incredibles, Jurassic Park, and Who Framed Roger Rabbit should have been nominated. But Endgame? It is a very fun well made fan service film that serves little emotional connection to people who haven’t seen any of the other films and is going to be get lost in the sea of Marvel films in 20 years after we have had 50 more films in the MCU. And it is filled with fan service and references that nobody is going to get in the future when they haven’t seen all the films that have come before, they shove in every random character possible from the MCU in there.

    Endgame is a film designed to be dated, which makes it not a very good Best Picture nominee.

    MMartin
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    #1203217478

    I’m starting to worry about Bombshell. It seems like a strong contender right now, but bad reviews and a lack of precursor buzz could easily sink it. And right now it looks like at least one of those things will happen

    Bombshell from early reactions seems like a film with no edge and just another Jay Roach HBO project.

    It doesn’t seem to go into the fact that Megyn Kelly/Gretchen Carlson are horrible racist people. Their is a creative way to show that the sexual abusers and enablers at Fox News are evil, while also showing that Megyn Kelly is a horrible person (that still doesn’t deserve abuse). But this movie seems to just want to paint them as martyrs who stood up to the evil men at Fox News. And gloss over Megyn “Santa is white” Kelly’s terrible journalistc history.

    Scorsesefan
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    #1203217504

    No it doesn’t, just because something is the highest grossing film of the year doesn’t mean the Academy has to nominate it. They have ignored plenty of genre blockbusters better than Endgame before: Terminator 2/Jurassic Park/Who Framed Roger Rabbit, and oh so many animated films from Fantasia to The Incredibles. And I am all for the Academy nominating more genre films, movies like The Incredibles, Jurassic Park, and Who Framed Roger Rabbit should have been nominated. But Endgame? It is a very fun well made fan service film that serves little emotional connection to people who haven’t seen any of the other films and is going to be get lost in the sea of Marvel films in 20 years after we have had 50 more films in the MCU. And it is filled with fan service and references that nobody is going to get in the future when they haven’t seen all the films that have come before, they shove in every random character possible from the MCU in there. Endgame is a film designed to be dated, which makes it not a very good Best Picture nominee.

     

    So you’re basically proving my point of how out of touch they are.

    Scorsesefan
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    #1203217510

    No it doesn’t, just because something is the highest grossing film of the year doesn’t mean the Academy has to nominate it. They have ignored plenty of genre blockbusters better than Endgame before: Terminator 2/Jurassic Park/Who Framed Roger Rabbit, and oh so many animated films from Fantasia to The Incredibles. And I am all for the Academy nominating more genre films, movies like The Incredibles, Jurassic Park, and Who Framed Roger Rabbit should have been nominated. But Endgame? It is a very fun well made fan service film that serves little emotional connection to people who haven’t seen any of the other films and is going to be get lost in the sea of Marvel films in 20 years after we have had 50 more films in the MCU. And it is filled with fan service and references that nobody is going to get in the future when they haven’t seen all the films that have come before, they shove in every random character possible from the MCU in there. Endgame is a film designed to be dated, which makes it not a very good Best Picture nominee.

    Designed to be dated? It’s a conclusion to the first three phases as well as certain character arcs who have served major purposes throughout these movies. And how are certain characters “shoved in” when the whole point of the movie is to revive them?

    Nikhil
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    #1203217544

    Bombshell from early reactions seems like a film with no edge and just another Jay Roach HBO project.

    It doesn’t seem to go into the fact that Megyn Kelly/Gretchen Carlson are horrible racist people. Their is a creative way to show that the sexual abusers and enablers at Fox News are evil, while also showing that Megyn Kelly is a horrible person (that still doesn’t deserve abuse). But this movie seems to just want to paint them as martyrs who stood up to the evil men at Fox News. And gloss over Megyn “Santa is white” Kelly’s terrible journalistc history.

    So, I think Bombshell is solidly in the 10th spot right now. What I will say is that people drastically overestimate the impact that the whole Bombshell’s conservative, vindicating bad people, Fox News is evil, etc has. I don’t even know what to call it but you know what I mean. If it was a bunch of internet movie forum folks deciding or even liberal critics I can see why it would miss for that reason, but Academy voters couldn’t give two shits.

    Vice, Two Billboards, The Big Short, The Social Network, Hacksaw Ridge, American Sniper, The Wolf of Wall Street, I can keep going. So many of these movies feature conservative ideas or characters, portrayed both positively or negatively. The Academy has conservatives in it, and they are obviously less bothered by their on screen presence than we think. Personally, I don’t think they are reflecting on what they are watching in the same way. If they really like Bombshell then it gets in, and I’m not going to feel good about making that determination until I see it. Right now, Bombshell’s biggest problem is that I just think the competition is too heavy.

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

    Seven
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    #1203217573

    If Sandler, Murphy, and Jlo all get nominated. They’ll have a combined total of 70 razzie noms together. Not to mention the 3 razzie redeemer award nominations they’re getting this year.

    oh my god

    HawkWD
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    #1203217579

    Bombshell from early reactions seems like a film with no edge and just another Jay Roach HBO project. It doesn’t seem to go into the fact that Megyn Kelly/Gretchen Carlson are horrible racist people. Their is a creative way to show that the sexual abusers and enablers at Fox News are evil, while also showing that Megyn Kelly is a horrible person (that still doesn’t deserve abuse). But this movie seems to just want to paint them as martyrs who stood up to the evil men at Fox News. And gloss over Megyn “Santa is white” Kelly’s terrible journalistc history.

    I actually read in an interview that the “Santa is white” rant is actually in the movie.

    Victor Cruz
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    #1203217583

    Not buying this as a Vice comp. Little Women and 1917 already have the BP late comers covered. Also doesnt really fit the pattern of films that miss as Bombshell has zero shot at directing and it’s not a british indie film. I could see some films that missed today hit PGA and throw folks off. AFI is very good at nailing the obvious films for BP.

    1) AFI is usually 70% right.
    2) Vice, Lion, Philomena, The Theory of Everything all missed both AFI and NBR.
    3) If Bombshell misses Globe nom it’s really over. And it’s just an acting + Makeup play. But Bombshell is the kind of movie that I think plays better with industry than critics.
    4) Finally, Little Women for a 90+ metacritic score is doing terribly. That’s supposed to be a critics film.

    JackO
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    #1203217602

    1) AFI is usually 70% right.
    2) Vice, Lion, Philomena, The Theory of Everything all missed both AFI and NBR.
    3) If Bombshell misses Globe nom it’s really over. And it’s just an acting + Makeup play. But Bombshell is the kind of movie that I think plays better with industry than critics.
    4) Finally, Little Women for a 90+ metacritic score is doing terribly. That’s supposed to be a critics film.

    I know you are stan but you are not entitled to your own facts. There is literally a front page article on Gold Derby about AFI

    The AFI has a strong track record at previewing the Best Picture line-up at the Oscars. Since the academy expanded that category in 2010, the AFI has previewed 70 of the 80 nominees that were American-made; that translates into a staggering 87.5% success rate.

    You naming british indie films doesnt help your cause.

    And bombshell is doing worse than little women so what does that say about that film?

    Babygirl
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