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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 9)

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203266726

    I still have Missing Link in 3rd or 4th place at the Oscars. No idea why the Globes went for it (they’ve awarded sequels before), though I’d guess it’s Laika having goodwill and getting so close to their first win with their previous film (Kubo). Animated Feature almost always goes to hits, if not the biggest moneymaker in the category. Missing Link was a box-office bomb.

    I think Missing Link is the Globe winner that has the worst chance of repeating at the Oscars. The Globes can be weird about this category at times.

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    Babygirl
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    I’m not sure why that would be true. Precursor wise the only leg up those two have is a golden globe win, and the globes aren’t even that good at predicting Best Picture (about 50% accuracy in the last ten years). That’s pretty low considering they get two tries each year. 3 out of the last 10 Drama Globe winners went on to win Best Picture. 2 out of the last 10 Comedy Globe winners went on to win Best Picture. A win at the Globes is great but it isn’t an end all coronation.

    Because Hollywood basically will take SAG, 1917 will do well with BAFTA and the two films will battle out on PGA and DGA…. Parasite could take WGA but since Hollywood wasn’t eligible the season will probably end with Hollywood winning Screenplay and 1917 taking Director.

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    Eddy Q
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    the costume branch isn’t so keen on rewarding recreations of specific outfits

    They nominated Jackie which was mostly recreations. Rocketman is obviously more flamboyant and the designs deviate from the originals quite a bit. Julian Day wasn’t nominated for Bohemian Rhapsody but I think Rocketman is different, there’s a bit more invention.

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    Eddy Q
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    I do think Rocketman will win something. But Original Song seems like a safer pick. Costume Design is probably Sandy Powell’s to lose, again.

    Sandy Powell was snubbed at the guild, strangely. She and her collaborator Christopher Peterson could still get nominated at the Oscars but a win is unlikely I think.

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    Brae
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    #1203266952

    I’m new to commenting here but not new to the awards seasons, and I think it’s ridiculously presumptuous of anyone to talk in absolutes with these things. It doesn’t really further any kind of discussion, and the past is becoming increasingly irrelevant given that the voting members recently increased by the thousands. Nothing is concrete until nominations are announced and names are called out on the oscars stage. No ones won an Oscar without [X], yeah, until someone does.

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    JackO
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    Netflix had 34 GG nominations but only won 2 (acting) awards! People should keep that in mind when making Oscar predictions.

    Ouch. Maybe payback for coming so close last year? I was wondering how would the industry would react if they came close with a film from scorsese but instead they slammed the door shut!

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    cinetastic
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    I don’t think the Academy is going to award a Netflix film as BP. So, The Irishman, Marriage Story and The Two Popes. The Academy has never awarded a foreign film as BP yet (Correct me if I’m wrong). I think, that’s why Parasite is going to lose because it’s not in English. Unless The Academy agrees with Bong’s speech about cinema being the only language and subtitle barrier should be overcome. Since 1917 and OUATIH won GGs, they will be locks. Joker and Jojo Rabbit’s chances are higher than Marriage Story and the Irishman at this point.

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    Rowan
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    I’m new to commenting here but not new to the awards seasons, and I think it’s ridiculously presumptuous of anyone to talk in absolutes with these things. It doesn’t really further any kind of discussion, and the past is becoming increasingly irrelevant given that the voting members recently increased by the thousands. Nothing is concrete until nominations are announced and names are called out on the oscars stage. No ones won an Oscar without [X], yeah, until someone does.

    Unfortunately this is just the atmosphere around here in general. People pick their favorites and declare that anyone else has zero chance and insult anyone who doesn’t like their favorite. Other just seem to hate the entire process in general and just want to post their negativity any chance they get. You could make a decent compilation post every year of all the people smugly saying what’s going to happen and what’s not going to happen, only to be completely wrong, and they’ll go right ahead and do the same thing the next year. It’s pretty toxic tbh, shuts down any kind of decent discussion. I find the ignore button pretty useful and use it frequently.

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    sofan
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    #1203267095

    I’m new to commenting here but not new to the awards seasons, and I think it’s ridiculously presumptuous of anyone to talk in absolutes with these things. It doesn’t really further any kind of discussion, and the past is becoming increasingly irrelevant given that the voting members recently increased by the thousands. Nothing is concrete until nominations are announced and names are called out on the oscars stage. No ones won an Oscar without [X], yeah, until someone does.

    Your comment is so naive that it shows you are new around here. Soon you’ll get the hang of it and you’ll probably start making the same comments you are complaining about right now.

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    MMartin
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    The four acting races seems like locks, it their is a upset I would say it would be Renee. She did not give a great speech at the Globes, and the film isn’t a hit.

    But it is a great performance, plus Hollywood loves Judy Garland.

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    DaKardii
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    #1203267152

    POST-WGA NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS

    BEST PICTURE

    1. The Irishman
    2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    3. 1917
    4. Marriage Story
    5. Jojo Rabbit
    6. Joker
    7. Parasite
    8. Knives Out
    9. Little Women
    10. Ford v Ferrari

    BEST DIRECTOR

    1. Sam Mendes (1917)
    2. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    3. Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
    4. Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
    5. The Safdie Brothers (Uncut Gems)

    BEST ACTOR

    1. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
    2. Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
    3. Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
    4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    5. Taron Egerton (Rocketman)

    BEST ACTRESS

    1. Renee Zellweger (Judy)
    2. Lupita Nyong’o (Us)
    3. Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
    4. Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
    5. Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    1. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollyw00d)
    2. Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
    3. Al Pacino (The Irishman)
    4. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
    5. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    1. Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
    2. Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
    3. Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
    4. Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
    5. Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    1. Marriage Story
    2. Parasite
    3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    4. Knives Out
    5. 1917

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    1. The Irishman
    2. Little Women
    3. Jojo Rabbit
    4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    5. Joker
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    TVFan365
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    #1203267311

    Yeah 1917’s Best Picture chances looking even stronger now.

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    Moviebuff22
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    I’m new to commenting here but not new to the awards seasons, and I think it’s ridiculously presumptuous of anyone to talk in absolutes with these things. It doesn’t really further any kind of discussion, and the past is becoming increasingly irrelevant given that the voting members recently increased by the thousands. Nothing is concrete until nominations are announced and names are called out on the oscars stage. No ones won an Oscar without [X], yeah, until someone does.

    Literally every year there are sweeps in the acting categories, with the exception of maybe one category. You can have discussion but a lot of people are just in denial over certain outcomes they don’t want to happen. When a category is locked, it’s locked. Happens every year.

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    Eddy Q
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    They nominated Jackie which was mostly recreations. Rocketman is obviously more flamboyant and the designs deviate from the originals quite a bit. Julian Day wasn’t nominated for Bohemian Rhapsody but I think Rocketman is different, there’s a bit more invention.

    I see this was premature as Rocketman didn’t even get a BAFTA costume nom while Bohemian Rhapsody did last year. I now expect the Oscar lineup to be the same as BAFTA but with Dolemite replacing Judy.

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    John Berchmans
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    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1203268263

    The Two Popes seems increasingly more like a foreign thing, with several nominations at BAFTA and the Globes but a complete shutout everywhere else. I’m starting to think that American shutout will continue at the Oscars too.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

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