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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 9)

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    JackO
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    #1203231432

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has its controversies to face. I think the hatred against Netflix is diminishing day-by-day (by actually being a savior of movies etc.), enough for The Irishman to pull through.

    They awarded Green Book over a Netflix movie just last year. I think Academy is willing to give it everything but BP. At this point though, Once can win on its own merit.

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    The Cool Guy
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    I’m going to predict Parasite to win Picture & Director. People keep bringing up Roma, but that movie was hurt being a very slow paced, inaccessible, art film(loved the movie btw), Netflix also likely dinged it a bit. Parasite is very acessible, and even made SAG ensemble.

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    JackO
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    Pending BAFTA I really think Yeo-jeong Jo has a shot to surprise Marina De Tavrina style in a wide open category

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    LegendOfMatt
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    Pending BAFTA I really think Yeo-jeong Jo has a shot to surprise Marina De Tavrina style in a wide open category

    This but Song Kang-ho in Best Supporting Actor.

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    sofan
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    If I didn’t have Tom Hanks with 1/100 odds I would replace him with Song Kang-ho in a heartbeat. If Hopkins misses BAFTA I’ll replace him I guess.

    And can we get the rest of the Parasite women in Supporting Actress category, please? Downton Abbey has a bunch yet Parasite only has one.

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    JackO
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    #1203231680

    This but Song Kang-ho in Best Supporting Actor.

    I assumed folks were already predicting him like I have

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    Tyler
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    Just had to take out The Farewell in Picture to make room for Joker…

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    DaKardii
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    #1203231913

    POST-SAG PREDICTIONS (MAJOR CATEGORIES ONLY)

    BEST PICTURE

    1. The Irishman
    2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    3. Marriage Story
    4. 1917
    5. Jojo Rabbit
    6. Joker
    7. Parasite
    8. Knives Out
    9. Little Women
    10. Ford v Ferrari

    BEST DIRECTOR

    1. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    2. Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
    3. Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
    4. Sam Mendes (1917)
    5. The Safdie Brothers (Uncut Gems)

    BEST ACTOR

    1. Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
    2. Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
    3. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
    4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    5. Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)

    BEST ACTRESS

    1. Renee Zellweger (Judy)
    2. Lupita Nyong’o (Us)
    3. Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
    4. Scarlett Johannson (Marriage Story)
    5. Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    1. Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
    2. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
    3. Al Pacino (The Irishman)
    4. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
    5. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    1. Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
    2. Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
    3. Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
    4. Scarlett Johannson (Jojo Rabbit)
    5. Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    1. Marriage Story
    2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    3. Parasite
    4. The Farewell
    5. Knives Out

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    1. The Irishman
    2. The Two Popes
    3. Jojo Rabbit
    4. Little Women
    5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
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    justonemorething
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    Rambling thoughts: I don’t think we can count “Little Women” out quite yet. I think that Saoirse has a chance of making the Oscar cut, though it’s for the 5th spot. Don’t know about Pugh. There will be continued backlash that no female directors were nominated at the Globes – hoping Sciamma is this year’s surprise, but with Joon Ho in contention I wonder if there’s support for multiple foreign language film directors. Baumbach, Gerwig, and Wang will get screenplay nominations as consolation prizes. It’ll be Joon Ho, Mendes, Scorsese, Tarantino with the final slot leaning towards Phillips at the moment. I thought this year was shaping up to be a lot more exciting than it seems to be – maybe I should be grateful for “Parasite” doing so well, but I’m left wanting. I don’t think “Bombshell” is going to have such a strong showing at the Oscars. Still holding out hope for Zhao Shuzhen, Willem Dafoe, and Song Kang-Ho.

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    John Berchmans
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    Rambling thoughts: I don’t think we can count “Little Women” out quite yet. I think that Saoirse has a chance of making the Oscar cut, though it’s for the 5th spot. Don’t know about Pugh. There will be continued backlash that no female directors were nominated at the Globes – hoping Sciamma is this year’s surprise, but with Joon Ho in contention I wonder if there’s support for multiple foreign language film directors. Baumbach, Gerwig, and Wang will get screenplay nominations as consolation prizes. It’ll be Joon Ho, Mendes, Scorsese, Tarantino with the final slot leaning towards Phillips at the moment. I thought this year was shaping up to be a lot more exciting than it seems to be – maybe I should be grateful for “Parasite” doing so well, but I’m left wanting. I don’t think “Bombshell” is going to have such a strong showing at the Oscars. Still holding out hope for Zhao Shuzhen, Willem Dafoe, and Song Kang-Ho.

    I’v said it before and I’ll say it again: the academy doesn’t care about backlash or controversy. Little Women isn’t happening anywhere except Screenplay and Score, (with the former being Gerwig’s consolation prize), so it has zero shot at Director. And no other female is even close. The Director nominations will be Joon-Ho, Scorcese, Mendes, and Tarantino, with Baumbach taking the 5th slot to make up for his Globe snub.

    You’re right about Bombshell though, that film’s still going to underperform at the Oscars despite the SAG love. Theron and Robbie and the makeup will be nominated, but there’s no way in hell it’s nominated for Picture with a 63% on Rotten Tomatoes and no Drama, Director, or Screenplay nods at the Globes (Vice had all 3). Same goes for Original Screenplay and Kidman.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Arthur J. Fleck
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    #1203232085

    Stay in denial but… Joker is getting in Best Picture as it deserves.

    Joaquin’s masterclass is sweeping the season while Driver, DiCaprio, Banderas and De Niro/Egerton will make it.

    It’s Johansson v Zellweger. Erivo is very likely to get nominated (I pray to God that it doesn’t happen) and Lupita has more support than we imagined. Theron is also a lock. Awkwafina looks like a dark horse right now.

    Brad Pitt and Joe Pesci are locks while Pacino is right there, too. Hanks will be snubbed again and Song Kang-ho may surprise.

    Sadly, Laura Dern is a lock to be nominated and Jennifer Lopez is right there with her (the unfair bias against her could hurt her, but I feel her performance is strong enough to overcome it). Margot Robbie is very likely to happen for Bombshell and Kidman could sneak in if the movie is liked. Pugh and Zhao are dark horses right now, while I think Johansson is very possible for Jojo Rabbit. Kathy Bates could get in, but her film is being underseen and Bening is really buzzless, even though she could get in by name-checking, which I doubt as she’s been snubbed a few times before.

    All I have are negative thoughts

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    Human Bartender
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    #1203232098

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>

    Pending BAFTA I really think Yeo-jeong Jo has a shot to surprise Marina De Tavrina style in a wide open category

    </p>
    I think this is gonna happen with Shuzhen Zhao. Maybe Song Kang-ho too.

    Let’s Go Bucks

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    Michel Nardini
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    Stay in denial but… Joker is getting in Best Picture as it deserves. Joaquin’s masterclass is sweeping the season while Driver, DiCaprio, Banderas and De Niro/Egerton will make it. It’s Johansson v Zellweger. Erivo is very likely to get nominated (I pray to God that it doesn’t happen) and Lupita has more support than we imagined. Theron is also a lock. Awkwafina looks like a dark horse right now. Brad Pitt and Joe Pesci are locks while Pacino is right there, too. Hanks will be snubbed again and Song Kang-ho may surprise. Sadly, Laura Dern is a lock to be nominated and Jennifer Lopez is right there with her (the unfair bias against her could hurt her, but I feel her performance is strong enough to overcome it). Margot Robbie is very likely to happen for Bombshell and Kidman could sneak in if the movie is liked. Pugh and Zhao are dark horses right now, while I think Johansson is very possible for Jojo Rabbit. Kathy Bates could get in, but her film is being underseen and Bening is really buzzless, even though she could get in by name-checking, which I doubt as she’s been snubbed a few times before.

     

    Joker get in BP, but Phoenix isn’t sweeping

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    John Berchmans
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    Alright, after the SAG nominations I think I know what our Top 10 Best Pocture contenders are. The first 7 being locks and the last 3 fighting for the remaining 1-2 spots.

     

    1: Parasite-Despite the potential foreign film bias facing this film I think Parasite stands the strongest chance of winning this award right now. It’s loved by everyone and widely seen, and it’s over performing at the precursors so far with the most critic awards, 3 Golden Globe noms, and an unexpected SAG nom for Cast. I think this could be the year we finally get a foreign winner. If this film does win I’d be very happy, since it’s my favorite of the year and of all time since Fury Road.

    2: The Irishman-Most people consider this the frontrunner right now, which may hurt it’s chances. The early frontrunners rarely seem to win here. And of course the Netflix bais could hurt it yet. That being said, it has most of the biggest critic wins so far, and despite snubs for De Niro, it’s also over performing at the precursors, especially in Supporting Actor. So a nom at least is all but locked.

    3: Marriage Story- Despite key under-performances in areas like Director (at the Globes) and Cast (at the SAG’s), this film beat every other at the Globes and remains a strong force. With the potential to win Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay, this film could walk away from this season as one of the biggest winners, Picture or no.

    4: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood-Once Upon a Time, many people (including myself) thought this early release could underperform at the Oscars. Several critic awards, 5 Golden Globe nominations, and 4 SAG nominations later, no one is doubting this film’s potential to take it all. But as I said before, early favorites tend to lose here. And before The Irishman, this was the early favorite.

    5: Joker-Doubting this film’s potential is foolish at this point. With a massive over-performance at both the critic awards and the Globes, Jojer will likely be one of the most nominated films of the ceremony. But with a divisive critical reception and only one locked win (for Phoenix’s masterful performance), it’s unlikely Joker will go all the way.

    6: 1917-Some guy guild snubs and a late release date may sew doubt for this film’s Oscar potential, but Picture nominations at the Globes and several critic awards, plus frontrunner status in Cinematography and Score, should assuage those doubts.

    7: Jojo Rabbit- How the mighty have fallen. I once predicted this film to take it all, now it’s not even in the Top 5. But with the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, as well as a Comedy and Cast nominations at the Globes and SAG’s and Picture nominations at most of the critic awards, it’s chances at a nomination remain stronger than not.

    8: The Two Popes-Shut out at the SAG’s and most critic awards, this film is by no means a lock. But it’s rare for a film that did so well at the Globes to miss out.

    9: The Farewell-I’ve doubted this film for too long, but no longer. It may have been shut out at the SAG’s, but the critics and Globes gave it more than enough love to keep it in the race.

    10: Ford v Ferrari-The least likely of these films to be nominated, this film barely hangs on to hope thanks to Bale’s success at the Globes and SAG’s, plus it’s potential below-the-line, strong box office haul, and Fox’s campaign savvy.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Victor Cruz
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    I’v said it before and I’ll say it again: the academy doesn’t care about backlash or controversy. Little Women isn’t happening anywhere except Screenplay and Score, (with the former being Gerwig’s consolation prize), so it has zero shot at Director. And no other female is even close. The Director nominations will be Joon-Ho, Scorcese, Mendes, and Tarantino, with Baumbach taking the 5th slot to make up for his Globe snub.

    You’re right about Bombshell though, that film’s still going to underperform at the Oscars despite the SAG love. Theron and Robbie and the makeup will be nominated, but there’s no way in hell it’s nominated for Picture with a 63% on Rotten Tomatoes and no Drama, Director, or Screenplay nods at the Globes (Vice had all 3). Same goes for Original Screenplay and Kidman.

    Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Reader, The Blindside all got less than 70% on RT and were nominated for Best Picture.

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