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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 9)

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  • John Berchmans
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    Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Reader, The Blindside all got less than 70% on RT and were nominated for Best Picture.

    (sigh) Well Victor, I tried to make peace with you, but here we are at odds once again.

    Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, and The Reader all had Best Drama nominations at the Globes. The former won, while the latter two had nominations in Director and Screenplay. The Blind Side came at a time when the academy had to nominate 10 films for Picture: they were desperate to fill that 10th slot. Bombshell has none of those advantages. I will admit Extemely Loud and Incredibly Close had none of those advantages either, but that film is the exception (and a pretty incredible one at that), not the rule.

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    justonemorething
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    I’v said it before and I’ll say it again: the academy doesn’t care about backlash or controversy. Little Women isn’t happening anywhere except Screenplay and Score, (with the former being Gerwig’s consolation prize), so it has zero shot at Director.

    Hammad Asif
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    #1203232302

    Does AACTA International awards have any significance to Oscars like BAFTAs or they are just nothing?

    Kubrick-Scorsese-Nolan-Coens-PTA-Fincher-Hitchock-Spike Lee-Tarantino
    19yr old Film School Student

    thatnerdgreg
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    Gerwig deserves that nomination, but I still found Portman’s comment to be unprofessional, biased, and rude.

    justonemorething
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    Gerwig deserves that nomination, but I still found Portman’s comment to be unprofessional, biased, and rude.

    My only point is that you can’t say that they don’t care about backlash. I agree she deserved it, but the connection between these two moments fit a very loud narrative that year. That year she was kind of the lone female director in the conversation, but this year you have Gerwig, Wang, Sciamma, Scafaria, Heller, Matsoukas, and Lemmons who’s films are in the conversation.

    John Berchmans
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    My only point is that you can’t say that they don’t care about backlash. I agree she deserved it, but the connection between these two moments fit a very loud narrative that year. That year she was kind of the lone female director in the conversation, but this year you have Gerwig, Wang, Sciamma, Heller, Matsoukas, and Lemmons who’s films are in the conversation.

    But none of those films are in the conversation for multiple major awards though, except for Wang’s, and The Farewell, even if it does get a Picture nomination, is one of the lesser contenders this year in that category.

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    justonemorething
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    But none of those films are in the conversation for multiple major awards though, except for Wang’s, and The Farewell, even if it does get a Picture nomination, is one of the lesser contenders this year in that category.

    Gerwig: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Score

    Wang: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best (Adapted/Original) Screenplay

    Har’el: Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay

    Sciamma: Best Director & Cinematography

    Scafaria: Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay

    Heller: Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay

    Matsoukas: Best Original Screenplay

    Lemmons: Best Actress, Best Original Song

    I know this list is from the MOST optimistic of projections and when the films were at their peak in discussions, but they’re there. And these will all be cited in the op-eds between today and January.

    Rachel
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    Ugh, it hurts to take Robert De Niro out of my predictions…

    Eddy Q
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    The Blind Side came at a time when the academy had to nominate 10 films for Picture: they were desperate to fill that 10th slot.

    Actually I think The Blind Side would be nominated under the current 5-to-10 system, it was such a popular hit (unfortunately). It pains me to say it but I think the first one to fall out would’ve been A Serious Man.

    thatnerdgreg
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    My only point is that you can’t say that they don’t care about backlash. I agree she deserved it, but the connection between these two moments fit a very loud narrative that year. That year she was kind of the lone female director in the conversation, but this year you have Gerwig, Wang, Sciamma, Scafaria, Heller, Matsoukas, and Lemmons who’s films are in the conversation.

    I understood what you were saying, I was just expressing my dislike for Portman’s comment.

    Matheus Ambrosio
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    Best Picture

     

    The Irishman

    Parasite

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Marriage History

    Jojo Rabbit

    1917

    Joker

    Ford V Ferrari

    Little Woman

    MrGoodWood
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    I just put Rocketman in my BP line-up and I think a lot of people are sleeping on it. It’s getting in at Actor, Sound Mixing, Costume Design and Original Song, and possibly at Sound Editing. Surely a movie with that many nominations can get in at Picture.

    Also, Egerton is campaigning heavily, Elton John just had a book release that he is promoting, and the movie is just so Oscar-baity. There are just so many things going for it. Bafta at least is going to go crazy for it.

    John Berchmans
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    Gerwig: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Score Wang: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best (Adapted/Original) Screenplay Sciamma: Best Director & Cinematography Scafaria: Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay Heller: Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay Matsoukas: Best Original Screenplay Lemmons: Best Actress, Best Original Song I know this list is from the MOST optimistic of projections and when the films were at their peak in discussions, but they’re there. And these will all be cited in the op-eds between today and January.

    Notice that I said multiple major nominations, as in Top 8. Gerwig won’t get Picture, Director, Actress or Supporting Actress nominations: only Screenplay. Harriet will only get a Best Actress nomination maximum, and Hustlers will get Supporting Actress at maximum. The others will be shut out. Wang’s film is the only one that still has the potential to max out. I think all 5 of those nominees are possible, but unlikely.

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    John Berchmans
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    I just wanted to let you guys know that I’m going to take a 3 week break from these forums. This has become a massive time sink, and I have more important things in my life that I need to do right now than spend hours posting on these forums and make predictions. Plus the next 3 weeks will be very uneventful anyways. I’l be back after the Golden Globes, when Joaquin Phoenix and Bong-Joon Ho have the first of their well deserved trophies. Until then, farewell!

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    Tyler
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    Jan 9th, 2018
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    #1203232897

    Notice that I said multiple major nominations, as in Top 8. Gerwig won’t get Picture, Director, Actress or Supporting Actress nominations: only Screenplay. Harriet will only get a Best Actress nomination maximum, and Hustlers will get Supporting Actress at maximum. The others will be shut out. Wang’s film is the only one that still has the potential to max out. I think all 5 of those nominees are possible, but unlikely.

    well maybe that’s also the problem? Little Women and The Farewell are two of the most acclaimed movies of the year, and 100% more supported than Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Ford v. Ferrari, Bombshell, and on par with everything in the top 5 besides maybe Parasite and The Irishman. I understand critical acclaim does not equal awards recognition, but quite frankly if females are making movies of this caliber I don’t quite see why  they aren’t in the conversation more.

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