January 10, 2020 at 9:19 am #1203273837
I say eightJanuary 10, 2020 at 9:23 am #1203273841
Voting for nine.January 10, 2020 at 9:55 am #1203273907
Seven seem pretty safe for nominations:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women is vulnerable but still a solid 8th after bouncing back with WGA and PGA noms. A last remaining slot could go to one The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Knives Out or even wildcard Uncut Gems, though it’s hard to say which if any of these will generate enough no. 1 votes for that 9th slot. (I seem to remember hearing that a full 10 nominees is extremely unlikely according to mathematical experts.)
Final guess: 8January 10, 2020 at 10:04 am #1203273933
My guess is 8 simply because it’s easy to get to 8 with
Everything after these eight feels more like a guess, which makes me think with the competition sucking up most of the air in the room, those final 9-10 nominees won’t be able to garner enough support.
I may just predict nine even though I think eight and do Ford v. Ferrari because I think that has the best shot, although it also feels a little like First Man from last year.
Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIHJanuary 10, 2020 at 10:10 am #1203273943
I am predicting 8: I think Parasite, Hollywood, Little Women, The Irishman, 1917, Joker, Jojo Rabbit and Marriage Story will be the nominees.January 10, 2020 at 10:21 am #1203273957
There’s only 7 locks right now, but since we’ve never had less than 8 nominees since the new rule was implemented I’m guessing Little Women makes it in to give us 8, and also avoid backlash. If we were to have 9 nominees I think Knives Out would be the 9th, since it’s a lock for Original Screenplay and films sometimes make it into Picture with only 1 other above-the-line nom or a win below-the-line (The Blind Side, Extremely Loud, Selma, The Post). Ford v Ferrari is 10th on my list, but I don’t think it makes it in unless Bale surprises. Films rarely get into Picture with no above-the-line support, and Black Panther just reset that cycle last year.
Fuck the GrammysJanuary 10, 2020 at 10:22 am #1203273963
I just love movies. And awards.January 11, 2020 at 11:26 pm #1203276154
It is looking like eight, but I will continue to keep nine in my predictions (Ford v Ferrari). It does seem rather easy to draw the line this year at five (Joker) or six (Jojo Rabbit) though, so I am hopeful.January 12, 2020 at 1:41 am #1203276266
Nine. But I’m preparing myself for a breakdown if Ford v Ferrari or The Farewell misses.January 12, 2020 at 1:43 am #1203276270
I think it will be nine.
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