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2020 Oscars: Best Picture predictions

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  • Josh5890
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    it’ll be interesting to see if all 3 netflix films ( Marriage Story, The Two Popes and The Irishmen) make it into the bp lineup…. many think the academy aren’t ready to embrace netflix that much

    I feel like Scorsese’s name and the cast  will automatically get them a BP nod, regardless of how the film is. I’m hesitant to call Two Popes close to a lock for BP with the field being crowded. Marriage Story seems to be at this point.

    As for the Netflix bias, it will be interesting to see how that plays out. The academy seems fine with giving nominations. It is the actual gold statue that is a different story.

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    JackO
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    I feel like Scorsese’s name and the cast will automatically get them a BP nod, regardless of how the film is. I’m hesitant to call Two Popes close to a lock for BP with the field being crowded. Marriage Story seems to be at this point.

    As for the Netflix bias, it will be interesting to see how that plays out. The academy seems fine with giving nominations. It is the actual gold statue that is a different story.

    That didnt work out for Silence, and Irishman is more Silence than Wolf of Wall Street.

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    Marcel Carneiro
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    That didnt work out for Silence, and Irishman is more Silence than Wolf of Wall Street.

    Silence was released too late in the year.

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    Marcel Carneiro
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    There are three pictures that are a LOCK for BP:

    Once Upon…
    Marriage Story
    Joker

    These 3 pics are >95% sure to get a nom. There are others with maybe 80%, 60% of chances, but can’t be considered lock.

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    Matthew anzalone
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      As for the Netflix bias, it will be interesting to see how that plays out. The academy seems fine with giving nominations. It is the actual gold statue that is a different story.

    The academy were willing to give netflix director but not best picture. Im very curious to see how netflix does in terms of wins (especially in the acting categories. Are they willing to give netflix acting wins)

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    Alan McFly Chrzan
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    Once upon a time in…Hollywood
    1917
    Joker
    Bombshell
    Beautiful day in neighborhood
    Harriet
    Waves
    Marriage Story
    Farawell

    Maybe:
    Pain and Glory
    Parasite (plz academy)
    Ford v Ferrari

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    John Berchmans
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    With all the universally good reactions that Ford v Ferrari and ABDITN are getting out of TIFF, I still think they will be strong oscar contenders this year: and the latter could be a threat for Picture. Just Mercy feels like the new Political nominee of the year, and Joker’s buzz is undeniable after Venice. I’m removing Bombshell, Endgame and Jojo Rabbit.

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    The Irishman/Marriage Story

    1917

    Little Women

    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

    Ford v Ferrari

    Just Mercy

    Joker

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    MMartin
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    My current Best Picture nods:

    1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Tarantino has a lot of fans, the film has good reviews, has made 310 million worldwide, and is about Hollywood)

    2. The Irishman (even if this gets mediocre reviews it will probably get in, Netflix is going to spend a lot promoting this one. Scorese doing a gangster film is going to play well with a large segment of the Academy, and the cast is filled with Oscar winners)

    3. Marriage Story (Netflix seems to be making a big push for this, the type of drama the Oscars like, big name cast, and stellar reviews)

    4. 1917 (going with my gut feeling, Sam Mendes has done well at the Oscars before, Roger Deakins cinematography, subject matter that is going to appeal to old voters at the Academy, good trailer, same editor as Dunkirk)

    5. The Farewell (one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, adds some diversity to the lineup, going to get a big push by A24 come Oscar time, the type of moving family drama the Academy likes)

    6. Little Women (Greta Gerwig’s follow up to Lady Bird, material we know does well at the Oscars with three previous nominated versions, could do well at the box office around Christmas, perfect awards contender release date)

    7. Parasite (might end up being regulated to foreign film, but this seems like the most critically acclaimed and talked about film of the year in the film critic/twitter community, and has been doing well at the global box office)

    8. Ford v Ferrari (great early reviews, biopic story, two huge stars leading the cast, and the type of film that has the ability to get a lot of technical nominations)

    9. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (I am hesitant on this one after the documentary was snubbed, Mr. Roger just might not have much meaning to non-American voters, but I can also see this being a box office hit crowd pleaser and doing well with old voters, big star in the lead role, heartwarming subject material, solid reviews out of TIFF)

    10. Joker (Won the Golden Lion, is probaley going to make a ton of money at the box office, I am hesitant because genre films like this can have a uphill battle, the darkness of it may turn people off, and the RT score has fallen a lot, down to 78 percent at the time of me typing this)

    Other Possibilities: I really hope JoJo Rabbit is great but it seems to be to divisive. Waves could be this years Moonlight. Don’t think three Netflix films are happening with The Two Popes.

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    Foolio
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    Frontrunners

    Marriage Story
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Could win

    Joker
    Little Women
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    Waves

    On the brink

    Parasite
    The Two Popes
    Ford v. Ferrari
    The Farewell
    The Irishman

    Next in line

    Bombshell
    1917
    Just Mercy
    Dolor y Gloria

    Strong possibilities

    Us
    Hustlers
    Booksmart

    Possibilities

    Ad Astra
    Dark Waters
    Uncut Gems
    The Aeronauts
    The Laundromat
    Lucy in the Sky
    The Report
    Queen & Slim
    Gemini Man
    Avengers: Endgame
    Dolemite Is My Name

    Longer shots

    JoJo Rabbit
    Judy
    Knives Out
    Downton Abbey
    Harriet
    Rocketman
    The Last Black Man in San Francisco
    The King
    Motherless Brooklyn
    A Hidden Life
    Luce
    Cats

    Shouldn’t be written off

    Star Wars: the Rise of Skywalker
    The Lighthouse
    Clemency
    Wendy
    Toy Story 4

    Theoretical possibilities

    The Goldfinch
    The Good Liar
    The Rhythm Section
    Honey Boy
    Scary Stories to Tell
    Shirley
    The Peanut Butter Falcon
    Little Woods
    Wild Rose

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    Mickmack
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    That didnt work out for Silence, and Irishman is more Silence than Wolf of Wall Street.

    The Irishman is closer to The Godfather than Silence too.

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    Lil Tony
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    The Last Black Man in San Francisco deserves to be nominated

    Taron Egerton (Rocketman) for best actor. Charlize Theron looks great in Bombshell teaser

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    John Berchmans
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    My Best Picture predictions after TIFF

     

    1: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    2: Marriage Story

    3: Jojo Rabbit

    4: The Irishman

    5: Little Women

    6: 1917

    7: Parasite

    8: Joker

    9: Ford v Ferrari

    10: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

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    OneAndOnlyMe.
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    Picture:

    1. Marriage Story
    2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    3. 1917
    4. Little Women
    5. Parasite
    6. Ford v Ferrari
    7. The Irishman
    8. Jojo Rabbit
    9. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    10. Avengers: Endgame (yeah, I know)
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    Cordelia
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    1. Marriage Story
    2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    3. The Irishman (only this low because unseen)
    4. Parasite
    5. Little Women (only this low because unseen)
    6. Jojo Rabbit
    7. The Farewell
    8. A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood
    9. Just Mercy (alt: Joker)

    Since 10 nominees basically can’t happen in this current system, I’m using my 10th slot to will a candidate’s presence into existence

    10. The Lighthouse

    • This reply was modified 2 days, 4 hours ago by  Cordelia.
    • This reply was modified 2 days, 4 hours ago by  Cordelia.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Do my forum games!

    https://www.goldderby.com/forum/games-lets-play-games/72nd-oscars-runner-up-5-elimination-game-nominated-but-not-for-best-picture/

    https://www.goldderby.com/forum/games-lets-play-games/81st-oscars-runner-up-5-elimination-game/

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    Darlings, Jojo Rubbish is getting in, sadly.

    LENA HEADEY hasn't got an Emmy for Game of Thrones????? Emmys you need to win her right now!!
    If Lena Headey doesn't win the Emmy, I'm leaving GoldDerby forever.

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