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2020 Oscars Predictions (Part 4)

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  • Nikhil
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    Which brings us back to now, with Heller, Gerwig, and Wang (presumably) all bringing worthy directing skill to movies that will probably be represented across the board. Not having a single one of them nominated would be worthy of criticism.

    I agree completely. I personally think ABDITN isn’t going to be a top contender. Little Women could be at which point I’d say Gerwig should be noticed. Personally (and probably foolishly), I’m hoping The Farewell picks up some steam if it gets notices everywhere, so I would love for Lulu Wang to be nominated. From what I’ve seen so far this year (having attended zero festivals) The Farewell is still my number one of the year.

    My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
    1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

    MMartin
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    Question: What do you think will be the Oscar type films this year that get good reviews but walk away with 0 Oscar nominations, last year we had Ben is Back, Boy Erased, Eighth Grade, Sorry to Bother You, Leave No Trace, You Were Never Really Here, Private Life, The Hate U Give, The Death of Stalin, Hereditary, The Rider, Widows, Wildlife, and A Private War. All of which have over a 80% on Rotten Tomatoes.

    I think Us is very likely to be forgotten come Oscar time, it doesn’t seem to have the same buzz that Get Out did. I could also see Uncut Gems, Midsommar, The Lighthouse, Booksmart, and Knives Out get completely left out of the Oscar race.

    John Berchmans
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    You commented on the Best Actor race – who do you reckon are the main contenders, in your opinion then? I have Banderas or Pryce for the win. I reckon Phoenix’s turn as Joker won’t meet the older voters of the Academy tbh.

    It seems like a two horse race between Phoenix and Driver right now. The former seems to be getting more acclaim, but the latter’s less controversial, so eother could take it.

    BP: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story,
    BD: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips, Noah Baumbach
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Adam Driver, Roman Griffin Davis, Christian Bale
    Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, Scarlett Johansson
    S. Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell, Al Pacino, Alan Alda
    S. Actress: Laura Dern, Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
    AS: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Irishman
    OS: Parasite, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari

    John Berchmans
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    #1203110463

    With all the backlash of Netflix in the Oscars, can it seriously pull off getting 2 or 3 BP nominees – The Irishman, Marriage Story,The Two Popes (The latter being the one I am most excited about)?

    Probably not The Two Popes. I could see that film getting nominated for Lead Actor and/or Adapted Screenplay, but Picture seems out of reach. It’s a shame, cause I’m actualky very exited to see that film too. Good Catholic movies are rare nowadays.

    BP: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story,
    BD: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips, Noah Baumbach
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Adam Driver, Roman Griffin Davis, Christian Bale
    Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, Scarlett Johansson
    S. Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell, Al Pacino, Alan Alda
    S. Actress: Laura Dern, Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
    AS: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Irishman
    OS: Parasite, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari

    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203110480

    I don’t think people are saying there will be a female nominee to ‘fill a quota’ I think we are predicting a female nominee because this year has been very monumental for female filmmakers. ABDITN, Little Women, and The Farewell rank very high in our predictions. And even though Hustlers, Harriet, Booksmart, and some other female directed films may be non-factors now, they all had buzz. Last year there wasn’t a female-directed frontrunner, so none were nominated, and even then there was a lot of controversy. This year we have 3 female directed front-runners (for BP nominations that is.) So any of their nominations would be deserved, not just a quota, simply by the fact they have best picture frontrunners. However, this may get into some controversial territory, but I believe true equality in filmmaking would be nominating whoever regardless of any trait. You have some people citing “gender quotas” or “race quotas” because of all the backlash the academy receives for not nominating members of these communities. If that backlash didn’t exist, in their eyes, these ‘quotas’ would not exist. Politics are one of the biggest factors in award season, and currently identity politics is very prevalent in America. Let’s think a couple years ago, when Greta Gerwig upset Guadagnino and McDonagh, whose films were widely considered bigger frontrunners than Lady Bird was. The Globes nominated 5 men, Portman made that (in)famous remark, and I genuinely think that the backlash affected the Academy, and luckily they had a very well directed major contender in Lady Bird. This is, of course 100% speculation. But even when the academy did nominate Gerwig, Emma Stone made her own comments patronizing the male nominees, in my opinion turning what could have/and should have been a resounding win for female filmmakers into an identitarian mess. Then in 2019, no women were nominated, and all of a sudden you have hordes of people coming out saying Marielle Heller was top 5, even though her movie was not lauded for its direction, and it failed to get a Picture nomination. (By the way, she was better than McKay, whose nomination proves how political the academy can be, but she did not out-direct Cooper who was also snubbed.) Which brings us back to now, with Heller, Gerwig, and Wang (presumably) all bringing worthy directing skill to movies that will probably be represented across the board. Not having a single one of them nominated would be worthy of criticism. Especially when people have Bong or Waititi in, who have never been academy darlings.

    I know some people thought Portman and Stone were being cool when they made those comments, but I thought they came across as huge jerks, especially Portman. They completely undermined the work of extremely talented directors just so they could make political statements. Yes, Gerwig’s a great director, but it’s wrong to show one nominated/snubbed contender blatant favoritism. Especially since she was probably only fourth place that year.

    JackO
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    Looking forward to the same people calling The Farewell a flop make excuses for Judy grossing less than it lol.

    Judy – analysts figure that Judy sings all the way to $12M at the domestic box office

    The Farewell – $17,409,969

    MMartin
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    I think Judy should have been released after the Golden Globe nominations at least, sometime in the winter season. Right now is such a weird time to release a film that’s biggest draw is that it is a awards contender.

     

    Babygirl
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    It seems like a two horse race between Phoenix and Driver right now. The former seems to be getting more acclaim, but the latter’s less controversial, so eother could take it.

    Driver’s having more acclaim tbh. He was ranked at #1 for Best TIFF performances voted by like 352 critics at IndieWire.

    Stegeo
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    I’m starting to feel like Marriage Story is going to be more like Three Billboards than The Favourite, meaning it’s winning Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, rather than just Supporting Actress (contrast to Best Actress and Supporting Actor wins of 3B). Ik it’s a frontrunner for Original Screenplay but something tells me it’s not winning it in the end. Just gut statements. I’m not backing it up with anything.

    Hammad Asif
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    #1203110601

    Don Martin Scorsese has made 25 feature films in his 52 yrs career of directing and still going 1967-2019
    And he hasn’t made 1 stinker,they are mostly epics and atleast good.
    Unbelievable filmmaker and unbelievable consistency

    Kubrick-Scorsese-Nolan-Coens-PTA-Fincher-Hitchock-Spike Lee-Tarantino
    19yr old Film School Student

    Seven
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    #1203110679

    So the media really picked up that Joker controversy huh ? I see it everywhere smh

    John Berchmans
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    #1203110689

    Looking forward to the same people calling The Farewell a flop make excuses for Judy grossing less than it lol.

    Judy – analysts figure that Judy sings all the way to $12M at the domestic box office

    The Farewell – $17,409,969

    This is why I don’t think Judy will win. It’s The Wife all over again: the early contender that everyone is convinced will sweep only to lose to a performance in a bigger film. I would post this on the Actress forum, but the hysterics there would tear me limb from limb if I said anything bad about Renee’s chances.

    BP: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story,
    BD: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips, Noah Baumbach
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Adam Driver, Roman Griffin Davis, Christian Bale
    Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, Scarlett Johansson
    S. Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell, Al Pacino, Alan Alda
    S. Actress: Laura Dern, Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
    AS: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Irishman
    OS: Parasite, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari

    John Berchmans
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    #1203110691

    Driver’s having more acclaim tbh. He was ranked at #1 for Best TIFF performances voted by like 352 critics at IndieWire.

    I see more people overall saying Phoenix deserves the Oscar, but Driver does seem to be the critic’s favorite, which could drive (pun intended) him to a win.

    BP: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story,
    BD: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips, Noah Baumbach
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Adam Driver, Roman Griffin Davis, Christian Bale
    Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, Scarlett Johansson
    S. Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell, Al Pacino, Alan Alda
    S. Actress: Laura Dern, Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
    AS: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Irishman
    OS: Parasite, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari

    thatnerdgreg
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    Apr 24th, 2016
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    #1203110710

    This is why I don’t think Judy will win. It’s The Wife all over again: the early contender that everyone is convinced will sweep only to lose to a performance in a bigger film. I would post this on the Actress forum, but the hysterics there would tear me limb from limb if I said anything bad about Renee’s chances.

    The difference between Renée this year and Glenn last year is that Renée is actually the best received performance in her category (so far). And unlike Glenn, Renée’s playing one of the most beloved actresses of all time. So she’s got that going for her.

    Seven
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    #1203110717

    The difference between Renée this year and Glenn last year is that Renée is actually the best received performance in her category (so far). And unlike Glenn, Renée’s playing one of the most beloved actresses of all time. So she’s got that going for her.

    Her narrative isn’t half as strong as Glenn’s last year. For all we know it could balance things out

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