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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 11)

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1203706878

    Part 11 is now open.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203706891

    So who do we think wins Best Actress since there’s been so much argument about that?

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    Wanda
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    Pfeiffer has been continuously acting since 1992, Loren hasn’t. I guess you must have thought that Charlize Theron had an advantage over Renee Zellweger despite the latter having taken a sabbatical due to the fact that former was nominated more recently than the latter.

    Why are you comparing a group of contemporary actresses with another group that has an actress who debuted in the 90s and one in the 60s?
    Comparing Loren and Pfeiffer would be like saying Liv Ullmann has more chances than Jessica Lange, it would be non-sensical.

    Last.fm: https://www.last.fm/es/user/Into_You
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    wolfali
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    Picture : Nomadland (RU: Mank)
    Director : Chloe Zhao (RU: David Fincher)
    Actor : Anthony Hopkins (RU: Daniel Kaluuya)
    Actress : Vanessa Kirby (RU: Viola Davis)
    S. Actor : Chadwick Boseman
    S. Actress : Glenn Close (RU: Olivia Colman)
    Adapted Screenplay : Nomadland (RU: The Father)
    Original Screenplay : Mank (RU: The French Dispatch)
    International : New Order (RU: Wife of a Spy)
    Animated Feature : Soul (RU: Onward)
    Original Score : The French Dispatch (RU: Mank)
    Original Song : No Time to Die (RU: One Night in Miami)
    Sound : No Time to Die (RU: Tenet)
    Production Design : The French Dispatch (RU: Mank)
    Cinematography : Mank (RU: The French Dispatch)
    Makeup and Hairstyling : The Trial of the Chicago 7 (RU: The French Dispatch)
    Costume Design : The French Dispatch (RU: One Night in Miami)
    Editing : Nomadland (RU: Mank)
    Visual Effects : Tenet (RU: Dune)

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    wolfali
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    #1203706921

    Comparing Loren and Pfeiffer would be like saying Liv Ullmann has more chances than Jessica Lange, it would be non-sensical.

    Did I say Pfeiffer has less of a chance than Loren? No. What I was saying is your idea that Pfeiffer is more beloved than Loren is a stretch when Pfeiffer hasn’t been nominated for a while for any major awards despite not really taking a sabbatical like Loren did.

    Anyway since you clearly are tainted with bias against Loren getting in I’ll leave this here. We haven’t actually seen her film yet or know whether she has the performance so to discount her would be premature but I will say if the film is acclaimed she can easily get nominated. After all there is hype for her return and Peter O’Toole did make it back in 2008 for a film hardly anyone saw or cared about so I don’t see why she’ll miss for a hyped performance in a film on Netflix if she’s good.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Human Bartender
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    #1203706924

    Why are you comparing a group of contemporary actresses with another group that has an actress who debuted in the 90s and one in the 60s? Comparing Loren and Pfeiffer would be like saying Liv Ullmann has more chances than Jessica Lange, it would be non-sensical.

    I’m sorry I thought I was done with this conversation, but you compared them first.

    Let’s Go Bucks

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    Wanda
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    #1203706933

    I’m sorry I thought I was done with this conversation, but you compared them first.

    Oh god, read again. I did not ask why he is comparing Pfeiffer and Loren. Get off my neck and read twice before posting.

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    MrOceanBlueEyes
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    #1203706938

    It’s too early to have an Best Actress winner right now but I could see this potential line up:

    (Yes I’m predicting Kirby, Netflix is a good distributor I also have 100/1 odds on her so I kinda refuse to take her out now)

    FYC:
    Phoebe Bridgers: BNA
    Punisher - Phoebe Bridgers: Alternative album

    Megan Thee Stallion: BNA
    Savage (Remix): ROTY, melodic rap performance

    folklore - Taylor Swift: Pop Vocal Album
    exile - Taylor Swift & Bon Iver: Pop Duo or Group
    betty - Taylor Swift: Country Song

    Jaime - Brittany Howard: AOTY

    Rina Sawayama: BNA

    Caution - The Killers: Rock Performance

    Women in Music Pt. III - HAIM: Alternative album

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    Wanda
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    #1203706940

    Did I say Pfeiffer has less of a chance than Loren? No. What I was saying is your idea that Pfeiffer is more beloved than Loren is a stretch when Pfeiffer hasn’t been nominated for a while for any major awards despite not really taking a sabbatical like Loren did.

    Pfeiffer is factually more beloved in Hollywood than Loren and anyone with common sense would say it.

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1203706954

    Plssss the absolute RAVES The Father is getting, for both BP material and even editing. Watch this win People’s Choice.

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    Milk Money
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    #1203706958

    Just dawned on me that both Frances and Michelle got their first nominations together, in BSA, way back in ‘89.

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    Jacob Boe
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    #1203706966

    Wolfali, saying Tenet wins VFX over Dune is preposterous.

    And let’s stop this Pfeiffer/Loren debate. Pfeiffer is more LOVED as she has been working more frequently in the last 20 years. Loren is more LEGENDARY as she is the first actor to win for a foreign language film, and has two nominations at that. They both have very good chances as their is hype and it will probably depend on who is better who gets nominated. We overcomplicate who will get nominated all the time. The voters dont really have a lot of our subtle intricacies we have in mind in theirs. Like the young ingenues. Or the most relevant. And, even to a point, although I will admit they do think about this a little, overdue narratives and not winning Oscars close together. They simply vote for who they think is the best. So base your predictions off of who you think will be the best and who critics are hyping, and there you’ll have it.

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    wolfali
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    #1203706972

    I’m going to say this again and whilst you can accuse me of bias all you want I really think right now this is Kirby’s to lose. I think at the moment she’s ahead of Frances in terms of the win and I think whilst her film might not as big a factor in other races as NomadlandHillbilly Elegy and Ma Rainey I think it could still be a big I, Tonya style player getting guild nominations for its two ladies, a few crafts and an original screenplay nomination. Yes the reviews for it aren’t as good as I, Tonya but they aren’t bad either (i.e. 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, 73 on Metacritic) but both are divisive films that have been particularly praised for aspects of their writing and their two main female performances. I think Pieces of a Woman could very well break into the Original Screenplay category simply for that 30 minute scene alone (which is being praised by every critic for both Kirby’s performance and its writing) and I think like I, Tonya it could win an acting award but this time for its lead not its supporting performance.

    I would say that for the win Kirby is much likelier than everyone apart from potentially Davis, Adams, Pfeiffer and Loren but that’s because we don’t know much about their performances.

    Also on a separate note it might be worth mentioning that with 15 reviews ُThe World to Come has started on Rotten Tomatoes with 100%.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203706974

    Original Screenplay : Mank (RU: The French Dispatch)

    THIS!
    It’s kinda funny seeing everyone debating Netflix movies and then there’s A24 holding Minari, which it’s the studio’s only Oscar player I believe. I believe less is more and Minari has the Sundance raves (and prizes) and it can do very well in the above the line categories.

    Edgar Pereira
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    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    wolfali
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    #1203706978

    It’s too early to have an Best Actress winner right now but I could see this potential line up:      (Yes I’m predicting Kirby, Netflix is a good distributor I also have 100/1 odds on her so I kinda refuse to take her out now)

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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