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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 11)

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    wolfali
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    #1203711680

    I mean I hate to say it, but I honestly do feel like Kirby is probably going to be the one who ends up getting snubbed. She definitely has the performance as I’ve seen from the reviews, but I feel like the film will probably start to get forgotten by the time we get to next year.

    But her film could also very well be released in the beginning of next year close to Globe, SAG and Oscar voting.

    That’s my prediction anyway. I think both Pieces of a Woman and Hillbilly Elegy are going to be released early next year to start the campaigns for Kirby and Close.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Hoster1
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    #1203711684

    Out of its reviews on Rotten Tomatoes it has 7 rotten and 28 fresh out of 35 reviews.

    I understand your point about Ma Rainey now though. She gained weight for it? I mean in an ideal world this shouldn’t be the case but a weight gain/loss usually constitutes Oscar bait (Charlize Theron, Matthew McConaughey).

    The Metacritic dropped to 69 tho. Percentage is decent, but weighted average would propably be better indicator of quality.

    Re: Viola, from Vanity Fair:
    Set during a recording session in 1927, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom inspires a performance from Davis that’s closer to her morally ambiguous lead in How to Get Away With Murder, Annalise Keating, than to the long-suffering Rose Maxson. As Rainey, she’s earthy, sweaty, and demanding, her talent nearly outmatched by her ego. Heavyset, gold-toothed, and bisexual, Rainey required a transformation: “She was 300 pounds. In Hollywood, that’s a lot…. Everybody wants to be pretty, so they’ll say, Ooh, I don’t want to be 300 pounds, can we just ignore that? In my opinion—no. If they say she’s 300 pounds, you have to be 300 pounds, or else you’re not honoring her.” Davis gained weight and wore padding to approximate Rainey’s girth.

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    Jacob Boe
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    #1203711686

    This is not even close to being true.

    Um… Disagreeing about opinions is one thing, but this is cold-hard facts. Just look at the Metacritic year-end awards scorecard. Its baffling that people can be so ignorant.

    Also, Kirby is giving me mega Nyong’o/Collette vibes. Gruesome subject matter, incredible performance, snubbed for no reason.

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    Seven
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    #1203711691

    Would it be wrong to submit Davis in Musical or Comedy at the Globes?

    I just can’t see this happening. She’d easily snatch this (and join Angela ❤️) but Ma Rainey is definitely a drama

    And Musical/Comedy isn’t as open as it used to be. ASIB, Judy and Rhapsody all went Drama (idk if they were submitted there or subsequently moved after being submitted in Musical/Comedy tho)

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    Hoster1
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    #1203711693

    Globes just don’t accept the Musical biopics in Comedy anymore. (which is good, because they don’t belong there)

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    wolfali
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    #1203711704

    The Metacritic dropped to 69 tho.

    But still that’s not panned territory either.

    Anyway it all depends on audience reception to be honest. I’d say potentially until Ma Rainey drops that Kirby is the frontrunner.

    Glad Viola didn’t go to 300 pounds. That would be dangerous in terms of health to gain that much weight in that short a period of time.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    David Holmes
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    #1203711706

    But her film could also very well be released in the beginning of next year close to Globe, SAG and Oscar voting. That’s my prediction anyway. I think both Pieces of a Woman and Hillbilly Elegy are going to be released early next year to start the campaigns for Kirby and Close.

    I get what you’re saying, but I just feel like the film as a whole won’t be the voters cup of tea or they probably won’t even watch it. It does seem she could end up being in that same category as Toni Collette and Lupita, which is sad imo bc I know Kirby’s performance will probably one of the best this year just like the two I just mentioned. If she was a previous nominee then I feel like it could be a different story, but she is still relatively unknown amongst.

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    Hoster1
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    #1203711712

    I never said it was panned, but it’s not encouraging either, especially with the bleakness of the subject matter.

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    wolfali
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    #1203711718

    I get what you’re saying, but I just feel like the film as a whole won’t be the voters cup of tea or they probably won’t even watch it. It does seem she could end up being in that same category as Toni Collette and Lupita, which is sad imo bc I know Kirby’s performance will probably one of the best this year just like the two I just mentioned. If she was a previous nominee then I feel like it could be a different story, but she is still relatively unknown amongst.

    Well I wouldn’t put in the same category as Toni and Lupita considering they didn’t win major awards for it and Vanessa’s film is about a woman losing her child and is not a genre film. I feel like voters pay attention to the festivals and if Netflix campaign her properly she can get nominated or even win.

    That being said I understand what you’re coming from.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    estrelas
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    #1203711722

    I have to agree that Viola is the only capable of winning SAG after losing at the GG. Right now I don’t have her winning GG because they don’t seem to be her biggest fans but she can definitely win there. Specially if her narrative becomes extremely strong. Right now there’s a possibility Best Actress becomes the most intersting race, since all other three races are on the way to become clean sweeps. (Specially if the other two are well recevied, since The Father is already acclaimed)

    Right now, I have:

    GG – Kirby/Pfeiffer

    CC – Davis or McDormand

    SAG – Davis

    BAFTA – Kirby

    Oscar – ??? (But probably Davis vs Kirby)

    FYC Emmys: Helena Bonham Carter (Drama Supporting Actress), Olivia Colman (Drama Actress), Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh (Drama Actress), Fiona Shaw (Drama Supporting Actress), Zendaya (Drama Actress), Alexis Bledel (Drama Guest Actress)

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    Seven
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    #1203711727

    Globes just don’t accept the Musical biopics in Comedy anymore. (which is good, because they don’t belong there)

    They really don’t. A performance like Marion Cotillard’s or Angela Bassett ‘s not being categorized in Drama is beyond ridiculous. They both lipsynced while serving incredible dramatic chops

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    David Holmes
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    #1203711746

    Well I wouldn’t put in the same category as Toni and Lupita considering they didn’t win major awards for it and Vanessa’s film is about a woman losing her child and is not a genre film. I feel like voters pay attention to the festivals and if Netflix campaign her properly she can get nominated or even win. That being said I understand what you’re coming from.

    I didn’t mean category as in awards wise. I meant Toni and Lupita arguably gave the best performances in the year they were eligible, but they were both ignored by almost every awards  bodies and I can see Kirby being in that same boat this year. I feel like the only way I can actually see her being close to a lock for a nom this year is if the film was in the screenplay and bp conversation (which they aren’t). With all that being said, I’m still keeping her in my predictions for now mainly bc i have the 100/1 odds on her and I wont be too surprised if she somehow actually gets in.

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    Arular26
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    #1203711822

    The real problem for Kirby is actually Netflix. They are not going to fight for her (for a win) unless Ma’ Rainey flops.

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203711847

    I have to agree that Viola is the only capable of winning SAG after losing at the GG. Right now I don’t have her winning GG because they don’t seem to be her biggest fans but she can definitely win there. Specially if her narrative becomes extremely strong. Right now there’s a possibility Best Actress becomes the most intersting race, since all other three races are on the way to become clean sweeps. (Specially if the other two are well recevied, since The Father is already acclaimed)

    I believe Best Actor can be interesting: Hopkins the acting legend Vs. Kaluuya the promising black actor
    “The Father” features one of the Hopkins greatest performances ever, but if Kaluuya (and “Judas and the Black Messiah”) deliver(s)… The cultural impact of having a performance as Fred Hampton winning Best Actor would fit our times and the message the AMPAS might want to send

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    Human Bartender
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    #1203711865

    The real problem for Kirby is actually Netflix. They are not going to fight for her (for a win) unless Ma’ Rainey flops.

    I disagree. Netflix clearly wanted this film after the Volpi Cup win, so they’ll definitely push her.

    Let’s Go Bucks

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