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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 11)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203711879

    Moonlight

    And Parasite.

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    Milk Money
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    I get what you’re saying, but I just feel like the film as a whole won’t be the voters cup of tea or they probably won’t even watch it. It does seem she could end up being in that same category as Toni Collette and Lupita, which is sad imo bc I know Kirby’s performance will probably one of the best this year just like the two I just mentioned. If she was a previous nominee then I feel like it could be a different story, but she is still relatively unknown amongst.

    I actually think that Kirby being a relative unknown helps her this year. She’s the prime candidate for the newcomer slot that they love to reserve in Best Actress.

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    Cordelia
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    And Parasite.

    Parasite has characters that are experiecing issues of poverty yeah, but that film is not realism. The dark comedy elements and violent outbursts are very much not that at all.

    I still stand by my argument that the Academy isn’t realism-centric. Moonlight is an exception, I don’t think many other 21st century Best Picture winners can be argued to be realism. Maybe Million Dollar Baby…

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite

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    estrelas
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    I believe Best Actor can be interesting: Hopkins the acting legend Vs. Kaluuya the promising black actor “The Father” features one of the Hopkins greatest performances ever, but if Kaluuya (and “Judas and the Black Messiah”) deliver(s)… The cultural impact of having a performance as Fred Hampton winning Best Actor would fit our times and the message the AMPAS might want to send

    It could be but I don’t know. The Father is being extremely acclaimed and his performance is said to be his best since The Silence of the Lambs. He’s a lock at BAFTAs and I would like to remind you that he never won at SAG. GG could be intersting but they didn’t award him for playing Hannibal Lecter. They might feel like they owe him.

    FYC Emmys: Helena Bonham Carter (Drama Supporting Actress), Olivia Colman (Drama Actress), Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh (Drama Actress), Fiona Shaw (Drama Supporting Actress), Zendaya (Drama Actress), Alexis Bledel (Drama Guest Actress)

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    David Holmes
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    #1203711928

    I believe Best Actor can be interesting: Hopkins the acting legend Vs. Kaluuya the promising black actor “The Father” features one of the Hopkins greatest performances ever, but if Kaluuya (and “Judas and the Black Messiah”) deliver(s)… The cultural impact of having a performance as Fred Hampton winning Best Actor would fit our times and the message the AMPAS might want to send

    Thank you!!! Nice to know I wasn’t the only thinking this. I’m honestly predicting and rooting for Kaluuya this year even though I love Hopkins.

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    John Nguyen
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    I disagree. Netflix clearly wanted this film after the Volpi Cup win, so they’ll definitely push her.

    yeah I agree I think netflix see her as the new it girl after the rave reviews. I won’t be surprised if she’ll be in more netflix productions in the future

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    SN
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    #1203711957

    And Parasite.

    Parasite was the exact opposite of subtle and slow paced.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    Parasite was the exact opposite of subtle and slow paced.

    I’m sure people are gonna push the narrative of ‘there’s got to be a first for everything!’

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    John Berchmans
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    Parasite was the exact opposite of subtle and slow paced.

    I guess you guys saw it differently, but for me Parasite was a lot more subtle and slow paced than any of the major awards contenders last year.

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    RealLyre852
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    Moonlight

    I forgot the part where Moonlight has most of its cast as real people playing themselves and sharing their stories. I don’t think you would make the moonlight or even Roma comp to Nomadland if you actually watch it.

     

    anyway after sleeping on it for almost a week my hot take prediction is that Nomadland will be this year’s ASIB/Irishman. it will get nominated across the board but win 0 awards

    BP/BD are out of the question for obvious reasons. best actress will be unlikely cus McDormand;s performance is too quiet and she doesn’t have an “oscar” moment and she will be going up against Kirby/Davis.

    Screenplay is also very unlikely as the dialogue is mostly improvised. some of it plays out as Frances interviewing random people about their nomad lifestyles.

    original score was good but it will be ineligible because it uses previously released music.

    cinematography is possible but it will be going against super baity B&W Mank. so we’ll see.

     

    I’m glad Nomadland already won the golden lion because it’s one of those movies that would normally get ignored by major awards.

     

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    John Berchmans
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    I forgot the part where Moonlight has most of its cast as real people playing themselves and sharing their stories. I don’t think you would make the moonlight or even Roma comp to Nomadland if you actually watch it. anyway after sleeping on it for almost a week my hot take prediction is that Nomadland will be this year’s ASIB/Irishman. it will get nominated across the board but win 0 awards BP/BD are out of the question for obvious reasons. best actress will be unlikely cus McDormand;s performance is too quiet and she doesn’t have an “oscar” moment and she will be going up against Kirby/Davis. Screenplay is also very unlikely as the dialogue is mostly improvised. some of it plays out as Frances interviewing random people about their nomad lifestyles. original score was good but it will be ineligible because it uses previously released music. cinematography is possible but it will be going against super baity B&W Mank. so we’ll see. I’m glad Nomadland already won the golden lion because it’s one of those movies that would normally get ignored by major awards.

    I don’t know, it just seems very disingenuous to use the reasoning of “the academy won’t award this film because they’ve never awarded a film like this before”, especially when Moonlight became the first micro-budget film to win two years ago and Parasite became the first foreign language winner this year. I don’t see why the Acadeny wouldn’t award Nomadland Best Picture when it has such rave reviews and strong festival buzz, especially since the alternatives are a Fincher Netflix movie and a Sorkin Netflix movie, and we all know how Fincher, Sorkin, and Netflix’s last few films have been treated by the Oscars, especially in the Best Picture category.

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    John Berchmans
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    Oh, and Nomadland is absolutely winning Adapted Screenplay. It’s further ahead in that category than Call Me By Your Name was in 2017. Nothing else stands a chance.

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    RealLyre852
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    #1203712053

    Nomadland winning Adapted screenplay over The Father would be almost as bad as Jojo Rabbit winning it over Little Women last year. (and I really liked Jojo & Nomad)

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    Edgar Pereira
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    Nomadland winning Adapted screenplay over The Father would be almost as bad as Jojo Rabbit winning it over Little Women last year. (and I really liked Jojo & Nomad)

    Based on reviews (so far)… I think “One Night in Miami” is a potential Best Adapted Screenplay winner
    (btw, I loved “Jojo Rabbit” winning BAScreenplay… Such a genius writing)

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    fyras19
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    Nomadland winning Adapted screenplay over The Father would be almost as bad as Jojo Rabbit winning it over Little Women last year. (and I really liked Jojo & Nomad)

    I know that’s not the conversation you’re having, but I think The Irishman was the more deserving winner last year.

    Parasite was the exact opposite of subtle and slow paced.

    It’s definitely not slow paced, but it’s as subtle as a film with those themes can be.

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