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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 11)

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    Jacob Boe
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    The only Supporting Actor contender I would like you guys to discuss is Lucas Hedges. Hes pretty high in the predictions, but I don’t know… What if it’s a performance like his in Lady Bird or Three Billboards, totally secondary? Just because he’s Lucas Hedges doesn’t mean he’ll get nominated. So, what do you think?

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    David
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    #1203717105

    The only Supporting Actor contender I would like you guys to discuss is Lucas Hedges. Hes pretty high in the predictions, but I don’t know… What if it’s a performance like his in Lady Bird or Three Billboards, totally secondary? Just because he’s Lucas Hedges doesn’t mean he’ll get nominated. So, what do you think?

    Yea idk I haven’t read the book. I still don’t see him getting a nom though, bc I don’t really see Pfieffer getting in and if she doesn’t get in, he’s not getting in.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203717189

    I think West Side Story died as soon as the Elgort scandal broke out.

    Most people have forgot about that actually. I haven’t seen any news on it since June. That being said, the film has zero buzz and no trailer despite the fact that it’s supposed to release in December. I have a feeling it will be delayed to next year to avoid competition with Dune and Wonder Woman (it cost $100 Million so they’ll want to break even) but we’ll see.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203717192

    You CAN NOT say it is category fraud until the film is released! I adamantly oppose category fraud, finding it to support the criticism of the Oscars not awarding based on art. But to say that a placement is category fraud before the film is even released is abominable. From the trailer alone, it seems very plausible that Murray is supporting. The only shots including him are also including Rashida Jones, whereas Jones has plenty of shots depicting just her. Wait until the film is released before reprimanding.

    But he’s in almost every shot of the trailer. And based on the plot it sounds like he’ll be in almost every scene of the movie too. I don’t think this will be a Hanks situation either, where he’s on the movie less than we expect.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203717197

    it’s crazy how Chicago 7 went from a timely potential BP winner to a most likely sorkin-only screenplay nomination before the film was even released.

    GoldDerby is overracting to that perfectly fine first trailer. The movie will still be a massive Oscar contender and probably win Sorkin a second Oscar for Original Screenplay. It’s Netflix 2nd biggest push out of the dozen films they have, it’s super timely, and Sorkin has a perfect track record with awards season films: they all get great reviews.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203717203

    Bill Murray is already declared to be supporting. Globe voters might change that since they have comedy categories, but supporting everywhere else.

    Any news on Boseman or Kaluuya/Stanfield? I still have a hard time believing they push Kaluuya to lead and Stanfield to Supporting when their roles seem like the opposite of that, and Kaluuya has a chance to win in Supporting.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203717212

    I’m not sold on On the Rocks as a Screenplay nominee. Coppola hasn’t been nominated at all since Lost in Translation, and the film doesn’t seem to have much buzz outside of Murray. Plus it’s Apple: Netflix and Amazon took forever to break into the Oscars, so I doubt they embrace Apple with multiple noms first try.

    One nominee I think people are underestimating is Da Five Bloods. Spike Lee won Adapted Screenplay just two years ago and was nominated for Do The Right Thing, so they have a history of rewarding him. Plus, this is the year of renewed interest in BLM, and if Spike Lee is snubbed entirely it will look real bad for the Academy.

    As for Soul, I’ll have to wait for the reviews and box office to see how well it does. My guess is, if it doesn’t get delayed, it will be a $30 Disney Plus rental. So it would probably need to as well critically as Inside Out did (98% on Rotten Tomatoes) and as well commercially as Mulan did ($250+ Million in first 8 days) to get a nom, considering Pixar was even snubbed for the critically acclamed and billion dollar grossing Toy Story 4 in a weak Adapted Screenplay field.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    I’m not sold on On the Rocks as a Screenplay nominee. Coppola hasn’t been nominated at all since Lost in Translation, and the film doesn’t seem to have much buzz outside of Murray. Plus it’s Apple: Netflix and Amazon took forever to break into the Oscars, so I doubt they embrace Apple with multiple noms first try. One nominee I think people are underestimating is Da Five Bloods. Spike Lee won Adapted Screenplay just two years ago and was nominated for Do The Right Thing, so they have a history of rewarding him. Plus, this is the year of renewed interest in BLM, and if Spike Lee is snubbed entirely it will look real bad for the Academy. As for Soul, I’ll have to wait for the reviews and box office to see how well it does. My guess is, if it doesn’t get delayed, it will be a $30 Disney Plus rental. So it would probably need to as well critically as Inside Out did (98% on Rotten Tomatoes) and as well commercially as Mulan did ($250+ Million in first 8 days) to get a nom, considering Pixar was even snubbed for the critically acclaimed and billion dollar grossing Toy Story 4 in a weak Adapted Screenplay field.

    This is a rational look at their odds.

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    abelfenty
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    #1203717375

    ‘Soul’ is opening Rome Film Festival October 15 so we should have an idea of its reception pretty soon.

    It’s playing at London Film Festival a few days before this.

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    Cordelia
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    I wonder what plates Netflix is going to drop so to speak. Netflix right now has a massive slate of films to support and campaign in performance, writing, and pictures.

    Potential dropped films also come in two categories – films like The Laundromat where dropping was an instant call to make because of reception killing the film’s chances, and films like Dolemite is My Name that had the quality and acclaim and names to potentially get a push but weren’t due to being shoved out by other candidate’s resource needs.

    Plain and simple, even serious contenders for performance nominations like Da 5 Bloods and Pieces of a Woman are going to have to face opportunity cost dilemmas. This is to say nothing of the possibility of upcoming films outright flopping critically.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    fefface
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    #1203717410

    I wonder what plates Netflix is going to drop so to speak. Netflix right now has a massive slate of films to support and campaign in performance, writing, and pictures. Potential dropped films also come in two categories – films like The Laundromat where dropping was an instant call to make because of reception killing the film’s chances, and films like Dolemite is My Name that had the quality and acclaim and names to potentially get a push but weren’t due to being shoved out by other candidate’s resource needs. Plain and simple, even serious contenders for performance nominations like Da 5 Bloods and Pieces of a Woman are going to have to face opportunity cost dilemmas. This is to say nothing of the possibility of upcoming films outright flopping critically.

    Something will almost definitely have to give. While it’s not impossible for Netflix to campaign a ton of stuff and get multiple slots in some categories, there will come a tipping point where they’re either overstretched or risk cancelling themselves out. I think it’s the movies that only have one or two shots at nominations that are likely to go, but we’ll see.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203717599

    I wonder what plates Netflix is going to drop so to speak. Netflix right now has a massive slate of films to support and campaign in performance, writing, and pictures. Potential dropped films also come in two categories – films like The Laundromat where dropping was an instant call to make because of reception killing the film’s chances, and films like Dolemite is My Name that had the quality and acclaim and names to potentially get a push but weren’t due to being shoved out by other candidate’s resource needs. Plain and simple, even serious contenders for performance nominations like Da 5 Bloods and Pieces of a Woman are going to have to face opportunity cost dilemmas. This is to say nothing of the possibility of upcoming films outright flopping critically.

    If Netflix has a critical flop, I kind of think it will be Hillbilly Elegy.

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    fefface
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    If Netflix has a critical flop, I kind of think it will be Hillbilly Elegy.

    Pieces of a Woman has very mixed reviews and while Kirby certainly has the performance, she may not have the name recognition to see her to a nom/win for a so-so reviewed film. IIRC actresses who get nominated for not-great movies are either extremely famous, previous nominees or are playing well-known people.

    But I agree re: Hillbilly and think only one of Adams/Close is getting nominated even in the best case scenario.

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    David
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    #1203717734

    Pieces of a Woman has very mixed reviews and while Kirby certainly has the performance, she may not have the name recognition to see her to a nom/win for a so-so reviewed film. IIRC actresses who get nominated for not-great movies are either extremely famous, previous nominees or are playing well-known people. But I agree re: Hillbilly and think only one of Adams/Close is getting nominated even in the best case scenario.

    Good take, I feel the same way, but I feel like if some of these contenders fall under the radar then she can sneak in there. I currently have her at my 5 slot.

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    estrelas
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    #1203717746

    There’s a behind the scenes clip of Hillbilly Elegy on Instagram. It’s not much but you can see a bit of the movie. You can see Haley Bennett and Amy Adams. Just search #hillbillyelegymovie

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