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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 12)

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    Stank83
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    #1203732358

    I’m sorry but I find this dismissal of how good 1917 was ridiculous. In what way was it a “bad rip off” of movies like La La Land and Gravity?! If you have a difference of opinion then that’s one thing, but to begrudge the fact that 1917 WAS the frontrunner for that awards season and was received by critics and audiences alike as an achievement is just ignoring facts.

    It is what it is.
    The actual runner-up at the Oscars was Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, not 1917.
    If it wasn’t for Parasite, it would have won Picture.
    When Bong won Directing, people in the room were giving him an enthusiastic standing ovation, and then proceeded to give another ecstatic one to Scorsese in the middle of Bong’s speech.
    All of this is pretty telling of the fact that no one cared about Sam Mendes or the movie losing that night, or about the movie itself, which only benefited from momentum that faded off pretty quickly.

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    David
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    #1203732407

    It is what it is. The actual runner-up at the Oscars was Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, not 1917. If it wasn’t for Parasite, it would have won Picture. When Bong won Directing, people in the room were giving him an enthusiastic standing ovation, and then proceeded to give another ecstatic one to Scorsese in the middle of Bong’s speech. All of this is pretty telling of the fact that no one cared about Sam Mendes or the movie losing that night, or about the movie itself, which only benefited from momentum that faded off pretty quickly.

    Bruh what??? I’m pretty sure ‘Once Upon A Time In Hollywood’ wouldn’t have won bp if it weren’t for ‘Parasite’ lol. Mendes was definitely the runner up for director, but no one was close to winning it bc Bong had it in the bag.

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203732410

    It is what it is. The actual runner-up at the Oscars was Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, not 1917. If it wasn’t for Parasite, it would have won Picture. When Bong won Directing, people in the room were giving him an enthusiastic standing ovation, and then proceeded to give another ecstatic one to Scorsese in the middle of Bong’s speech. All of this is pretty telling of the fact that no one cared about Sam Mendes or the movie losing that night, or about the movie itself, which only benefited from momentum that faded off pretty quickly.

    Bong having passion doesn’t mean that Mendes didn’t. Signs definitely point to 1917 being runner up given its strong precursor run.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203732424

    It is what it is. The actual runner-up at the Oscars was Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, not 1917. If it wasn’t for Parasite, it would have won Picture. When Bong won Directing, people in the room were giving him an enthusiastic standing ovation, and then proceeded to give another ecstatic one to Scorsese in the middle of Bong’s speech. All of this is pretty telling of the fact that no one cared about Sam Mendes or the movie losing that night, or about the movie itself, which only benefited from momentum that faded off pretty quickly.

    I agree with this. I’ve been saying it since Parasite won Best Picture. If 1917 had enough passion, then surely it should’ve at least gotten an acting or editing nomination. It’s clear from its losses in Directing and Sound Editing that it just didn’t have enough passion.

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    marty
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    #1203732426

    It is what it is. The actual runner-up at the Oscars was Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, not 1917. If it wasn’t for Parasite, it would have won Picture. When Bong won Directing, people in the room were giving him an enthusiastic standing ovation, and then proceeded to give another ecstatic one to Scorsese in the middle of Bong’s speech. All of this is pretty telling of the fact that no one cared about Sam Mendes or the movie losing that night, or about the movie itself, which only benefited from momentum that faded off pretty quickly.

    Bong specifically called out Tarantino and Scorcese in his speech as inspirations and great filmmakers, and people applauded them for it- how is that an indication of their chances? Everyone gave Streep a standing ovation in 2017 when Kimmel mentioned her, does that mean she was second to win after Stone?

    I can see an argument for OUATIH being the runner up for BP, even though it was not much more than a meandering Hollywood lovefest, but Tarantino has never won Director before and wasn’t going to for this. If 1917’s momentum died out before the Oscars (which it did, you’re right), then the Irishman never had any momentum to begin with. At least 1917 did well at all precursors. The Irishman was a complete non-factor, the only things notable about it were the de-aging gimmick, massive budget, how long it was, and Scorcese’s name.

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    marty
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    #1203732432

    Putting this to bed- in my opinion (and by most indicators), Mendes, a previous winner+Globes+DGA winner, was the runner up. You’re free to have a different opinion, and nobody can ever know the definitive answer.

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    David
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    #1203732442

    Honestly I think Tarantino was 4th on my list while Todd Phillips was 5th.

    Bong

    Mendes

    Scorcese

    Tarantino

    Phillips

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    Stank83
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    #1203732622

    Everyone gave Streep a standing ovation in 2017 when Kimmel mentioned her, does that mean she was second to win after Stone?

    That was different, it was a political thing, basically it was in response to the president Trump calling her “overrated” at the time after her Globes speech.

    Anyway I want to close this argument only by saying that also many other film forums (AW forum among them) think what I’m saying, which is if 1917 was the actual runner-up, they would have done the traditional split between Picture and Directing, thus giving Direction to Mendes and Picture to Parasite.
    It didn’t happen, the gimmicky war movie despite sweeping the Guilds, didn’t even have enough passion and momentum for a split.

    And lots of the leaked ballots were more in favor of OUATIH instead of 1917 for Picture.
    That is the main theory for lots of people who follow the awards season outside of Gold Derby.
    Anyway, I end it here, anyway is free to think otherwise.

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203732630

    Well saying that 1917 would’ve won director if it was actually runner up isn’t the best evidence, as the same could be said about the other nominees as well.

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    mf617
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    #1203732672

    Nothing official, but some tidbits from this Indiewire article:

    — “The French Dispatch” may go back to Cannes 2021, but doesn’t seem likely to open this year.
    — “Next Goal Wins” and “Stillwater” are ready to go, but Searchlight and Focus respectively haven’t made a decision on whether to push them for this season or next.
    — Still no decision on “Promising Young Woman” from Focus and “Minari” from A24, both of which already began their festival runs earlier this year.

    Expect ‘French Dispatch’ to Leave the Oscar Race and Eye Cannes 2021 Instead

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    snuggle4
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    #1203732678

    Mank in pole position to win picture? When will these “experts” ever, ever learn? Let’s see, they also had La La Land and Once Upon A Time as faves. I sense a common theme…hmm. Wonder what it is?

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    Stank83
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    #1203732717

    Mank in pole position to win picture? When will these “experts” ever, ever learn? Let’s see, they also had La La Land and Once Upon A Time as faves. I sense a common theme…hmm. Wonder what it is?

    This year is different.
    There’s not a critical darling and cultural phenomenon like Parasite, critically acclaimed late career masterworks from filmmaking icons like Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and The Irishman, or a bullshit gimmicky late breaker of the moment like 1917.

    If Mank is as good as it’s expected to be, it can easily win Picture and Directing.

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203732793

    Nothing official, but some tidbits from this Indiewire article:

    — “The French Dispatch” may go back to Cannes 2021, but doesn’t seem likely to open this year.
    — “Next Goal Wins” and “Stillwater” are ready to go, but Searchlight and Focus respectively haven’t made a decision on whether to push them for this season or next.
    — Still no decision on “Promising Young Woman” from Focus and “Minari” from A24, both of which already began their festival runs earlier this year.

    https://www.indiewire.com/2020/09/the-french-dispatch-oscars-2021-1234588501/

    It changes a lot of things for my predictions, specially the delay of The French Dispatch, which I was expecting to break Original Screenplay and tech categories.
    About Minari, they say: “A24 will qualify “Minari,” which won the audience and dramatic jury awards at the 2020 Sundance Film Festival. The autobiographical drama from Korean-American Lee Isaac Chung stars Steven Yeun as a heartland farmer and Korean star Yuh-Jung Youn as his challenging mother-in-law.” – so it means Minari is in I guess.

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    angel88401
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    #1203732802

    Amazon is wasting absolutely no time and has already set up its Oscars FYC website: https://www.amazonstudiosguilds.com/films

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203732807

    Amazon is wasting absolutely no time and has already set up its Oscars FYC website: https://www.amazonstudiosguilds.com/films

    And just let me say I wouldn’t be surprised if Kingsley Ben-Adir goes supporting

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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