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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 12)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203733142

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 reviews are very good (90% on RT and 75 on Metacritic) but not that great. I don’t think it’s winning anything besides Screenplay maybe.

    People on these forums are so desperate to discount The Trial of the Chicago 7. 90% on Rotten Tomatoes is really good for the early reviews. It’s definitely the frontrunner for Original Screenplay at least, maybe Editing too.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Cordelia
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    #1203733175

    The Trial of Chicago 7 will get a push from Netflix no matter what, it’s just a question how much. However, how much it gets pushed is dependant on how Mank, Hillbilly Elegy, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom go. Depending on how the others go, it could either be a The Two Popes situation wherein it gets strong pushes but misses Best Picture, or make it in BP as one of the pillars.

    Admittedly, I don’t think Netflix is quite in the situation they were last year. They will likely top last year’s Best Picture by getting 3 nominations in that category. There is also a lot less competition, with the strategy from the other studios and distributors being to push one (1) film – Fox Searchlight is likely putting it all on Nomadland, Disney’s leaving Soul undelayed, Amazon’s got One Night In Miami*, and WB is probably just managing Tenet and Dune.

    Netflix, meanwhile, has a veritable garden of films to pick and choose from. They just need to play their cards right.

    *Is this the first big shot Amazon’s had at a non-documentary/international category Oscar in a long time? When was the last?

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    Luca
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    #1203733209

    Viola is now in second? We’re really doing this?

    We need that trailer to come out!!

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    LLLhawks
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    #1203733215

    *Is this the first big shot Amazon’s had at a non-documentary/international category Oscar in a long time? When was the last?

    Maybe Manchester by the Sea?

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    fefface
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    #1203733251

    Nothing official, but some tidbits from this Indiewire article: — “The French Dispatch” may go back to Cannes 2021, but doesn’t seem likely to open this year.

    Prediction: The French Dispatch wins the 2021 Grand Prix.

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    fefface
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    #1203733253

    The problem with The French Dispatch going further than February is that Searchlight already has two contenders next year (Nightmare Alley and Next Goal Wins) and 20th Century has West Side Story.

    I brought this up yesterday – there’s just not going to be space in schedules for everything next year. Expect some stuff that was meant to come out either this year or next to move to 2022. It’s just not possible for most of this year’s films, and all of next year’s, to come out in 2021.

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    Stank83
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    #1203733295

    The problem with The French Dispatch going further than February is that Searchlight already has two contenders next year (Nightmare Alley and Next Goal Wins) and 20th Century has West Side Story.

    I’m pretty sure that The French Dispatch will be their priority number one, since they already positioned it at Cannes for next year.

    It will certainly be prioritized over a small Taika Waititi sport comedy.
    And over Del Toro’s new thriller movie, since he already won (undeservedly) his Oscars for TSOW and he can pretty inconsistent about the quality of his work, a hit and miss.

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203733300

    This year is different. There’s not a critical darling and cultural phenomenon like Parasite, critically acclaimed late career masterworks from filmmaking icons like Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and The Irishman, or a bullshit gimmicky late breaker of the moment like 1917. If Mank is as good as it’s expected to be, it can easily win Picture and Directing.

    If Parasite was a critical darling and cultural phenomenon (which it did not become until the awards season already started), then Nomadland is easily it’s successor- the first movie to win the Golden Lion and People’s Choice at two of the biggest film festivals.

     

    rubbish

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203733302

    And as someone said, Chicago 7 is safe so long as it has favourable reviews. As if it matters whether its metacritic score is in the 70s when movies like Jojo had 58, Joker had 59, and Green Book had 69.

    rubbish

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203733322

    The problem with The French Dispatch going further than February is that Searchlight already has two contenders next year (Nightmare Alley and Next Goal Wins) and 20th Century has West Side Story.

    It’s clear NOMADLAND is Searchlight’s #1 priority this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if they release NEXT GOAL WINS to qualify for the Oscars so they have a major contender and a smaller one that might nab some GG nominations and maybe a BAScreenplay plus an acting nom or something.
    So,next year they will have THE FRENCH DISPATCH that looks awards baity (and Wes Anderson is a reliable director) and NIGHTMARE ALLEY if it is any good (love Del Toro, but his movies are inconsistent in terms of quality)

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    Hayden
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    #1203733459

    The problem with The French Dispatch going further than February is that Searchlight already has two contenders next year (Nightmare Alley and Next Goal Wins) and 20th Century has West Side Story.

    A studio releasing films is hardly a ‘problem’, especially when that amount of films is 3. I think Wes & co are more concerned with Cannes tbh. If he wins an Oscar, he wins an Oscar. Come awards, I’d be shocked to see The French Dispatch eschewed in place of any of those films, even Nightmare Alley.

    Also… there’s a slight (slight slight) chance Next Goal Wins will be ready this year. It’s wrapped, and comedy’s pretty empty this season. Could be what everyone needs.
    (Nightmare Alley is nowhere close though, and much like West Side Story, Dune, etc… I don’t think remakes will do too well come awards anyway.).

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    loudtoilet
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    #1203733491

    I’d say that, right now, clear frontrunners are Nomadland, Zhao and McDormand. No clue about other categories. Zhao has a terrific shot at winning and I think the gold is hers unless a black director (male or female doesn’t matter) gets similar rapturous reception. Oscars 2021 will pay close attention to race, and while Zhao has amazing narrative (second female director to win, first Asian female to win), a woman (Bigelow) and Asians (Lee, Bong) won before while no black director ever did. So if someone (Ma Rainy’s, USA vs Billie Holiday, Respect, etc) gets similar reception to Zhao, it’s their to lose. So until those big guns are unseen nothing is set in stone.

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    mansos
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    #1203733576

    https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2020/09/george-clooney-the-midnight-sky-first-look

    First look at Clooney’s The Midnight Sky, coming to Netflix in December. I see some tech noms heading its way.

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203733586

    I’d say that, right now, clear frontrunners are Nomadland, Zhao and McDormand. No clue about other categories. Zhao has a terrific shot at winning and I think the gold is hers unless a black director (male or female doesn’t matter) gets similar rapturous reception. Oscars 2021 will pay close attention to race, and while Zhao has amazing narrative (second female director to win, first Asian female to win), a woman (Bigelow) and Asians (Lee, Bong) won before while no black director ever did. So if someone (Ma Rainy’s, USA vs Billie Holiday, Respect, etc) gets similar reception to Zhao, it’s their to lose. So until those big guns are unseen nothing is set in stone.

    That’s why I don’t remove Regina King from my predictions. I’m still sceptical about her getting nominated (reviews are solid, but not rapturous), because she would be the first female black director in history. The thing is


    Two female directors nominated? Sadly I think it still is too soon for a male dominant directors branch

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1203733603

    *Is this the first big shot Amazon’s had at a non-documentary/international category Oscar in a long time? When was the last?

    The Big Sick (and Beautiful Boy I guess)

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