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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 12)

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    mf617
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    #1203737786

    I also saw “Nomadland” last night as part of NYFF and found it to be a really captivating and special piece of filmmaking. It is true that there are many moments throughout the film where it feels like you’re watching a documentary and I do believe some, if not most, of the nomads in the film are actual nomads in real life. So really if you’re not focusing on the fact that you’re seeing Frances McDormand and David Strathairn, it would almost be difficult to determine where the line is drawn between fiction and reality, which certainly adds a layer of realism and emotion to the film. It quietly builds and gets you invested in Fern’s journey, and never comes off as insincere or dramatized for the sake of being a piece of fiction, which is quite an impressive feat. Because there were so many moments that didn’t feel necessarily like I was watching a fictional film, I wondered what kind of screenplay was being dealt with here, but as the film progresses, the writing shines in bringing the themes full circle without being in your face. This is a much different performance from Frances McDormand than I am used to seeing, but her charisma sells the story and gets you invested in Fern’s life. She puts you at ease that Fern is never truly struggling in this life and is very much at peace, but constantly feels the weight of her decisions and her perspective on life in general in every facial tic. It is a fascinating performance and the movie would not excel the way it does without McDormand. As the only other trained actor in the film, David Strathairn is a nice presence, and plays an interesting role as the physical manifestation of the next path Fern could take in her life. I even thought the performances by some of the real-life nomads was quite impressive, and I think knowing that many of their stories are real endears you to these characters almost immediately. Zhao’s direction is excellent in making the whole story feel so naturalistic, and the cinematography does a great job of breaking up the different environments so that we can feel the passage of time and get a better understanding of the different places Fern travels through.

    As for awards prospects, the film’s buzz and critical adoration should be strong enough to continue marching toward success. I think our Best Picture winner this year will be heavily influenced by the election in November and the general mood of the country, and this film certainly has an angle to take of illustrating a part of society we rarely see and that has been wildly affected by the biggest political issues of our time. It is not overtly political, but there is an angle to take (and honestly, I imagine that’ll be the case for a lot of movies competing this year as we’ve seen films reflecting the moment and pushing such a narrative achieve success in recent years). It is definitely in the race for Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Cinematography and Editing. If it really skyrockets and becomes one of the top players of the year, there is a world in which Strathairn plays a role in the Supporting Actor race, but I’m not predicting him right now.

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    wolfali
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    #1203737907

    I think The United States vs Billie Holiday will get pushed back. Paramount seem to be more worried about not scoring any losses than award prospects and I don’t think they’re going to want it to be released at the same time Universal releases Respect.

    Also I’ve kept thinking that Kirby and Davis are very likely/locks but really the only person who is a lock at the moment is McDormand and at the moment she seems to be quite ahead of everyone else. Kirby and Davis are the next two in line who have the most buzz but I feel like we’re underestimating both the problems they may face (at least in the win) and overestimating the problems other contenders are facing.

    For example Winslet’s film’s reviews aren’t raves but they don’t seem to be panned either and in fact some of them are saying this is her career best performance. And then we’re also just assuming that Adams’ role in the film is small because of how it was in the book when we know nothing about the film. For all we know she could have a larger role and this could be her career best performance. Then we’re assuming Hudson won’t get in because her performance won’t be very acclaimed but lots of experts have her first and whilst her film won’t do as well as Bohemian Rhapsody she went viral when the teaser for Respect was released in a similar way. Then Colman might go lead, Loren and Pfeiffer apparently give career best performances and Mulligan’s film is meant to be some sort of a masterpiece that has her career best performance. And this is assuming Andra Day’s film misses and this isn’t even including the possibility of Meryl Streep getting in as much Meryl Streep does for everything.

    I mean yes Kirby seems to be the face of her film and is being praised to the galaxies by every critic but her film’s reviews go from raves to mixed as soon as the 30 minute opening scene ends. And Davis might face the same problems as Adams in the sense that in the original source material her character doesn’t seem to have as much material as her co-star to chew on and therefore she might get overshadowed.

    I’m not saying Kirby or Davis will get snubbed (in fact I’m rooting for them) but the last time I’ve felt like we’ve had one lock for a nomination in this race was last year with Renee so I’m wondering if we’re just overthinking things as we always are and that Frances is going to take this in a cakewalk.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    JakeT
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    #1203737936

    so <b>I’m wondering if we’re just overthinking things</b> as we always are and that Frances is going to take this in a cakewalk.

    I think you’re definitely overthinking. But I still don’t think Frances is winning, despite her stellar notices. She’s basically the only contender whose film has been seen.

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    fefface
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    #1203738133

    I think you’re definitely overthinking. But I still don’t think Frances is winning, despite her stellar notices. She’s basically the only contender whose film has been seen.

    Good point! She and Kirby definitely seem to be the frontrunners for now, but we’re yet to see most of this year’s female-fronted contenders.

    Is there any news on trailers for Ma Rainey or Hillbilly?

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    wolfali
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    #1203738154

    Good point! She and Kirby definitely seem to be the frontrunners for now, but we’re yet to see most of this year’s female-fronted contenders. Is there any news on trailers for Ma Rainey or Hillbilly?

    No news on those yet but judging by Netflix recently on non Mank films I’d say we won’t see any news on the latter until later next month.

    I’m inclined to agree with the former point but that is more or less what I am saying. Both Kirby and Winslet’s performances are being praised to the skies but their films aren’t so much outside of their acting (and in Kirby’s case the 30 minute opener). With there being the possibility of Davis and Adams being overshadowed by their co-stars judging by their source material, Pfeiffer’s film being to genrey and Loren’s film being too small as well I’m wondering if we’re headed for another Zellweger situation with McDormand that we think there are other challengers but at the end of the day there is an unquestionable frontrunner due to multiple aspects hurting each other competitive performer.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1203738181

    The “one-scene wonder”’is quite common for a nomination but in Kirby’s case, has anything close to an “one-act wonder” ever been nominated?

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    wolfali
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    #1203738192

    Unless it gets shut out of the Globes I’m convinced that Winslet and Ronan are getting in à la Theron and Robbie last year.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Hoster1
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    #1203738210

    I would say it’s too early to say that Best Actress is weaker than last year? Other than the 5 nominees only Nyong’o and Awkwafina were only really in contention and one of them was in a horror movie lol.

    This year you have Viola, Frances, Amy, Kate, JHud, Michelle, Sophia, Andra, Vanessa too I guess, possibly even Meryl (she’s always a threat lmao) that could feasibly get precursor love. Let’s say if some of the not-seen contenders flop haha.

    EDIT: Oops, now my comment has no sense lol.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203738227

    Do we know if Netflix is going to do any premiere events (digital or otherwise) for Mank/Hillbilly Elegy/Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom? They’re skipping the festival circuit, so I wonder if they’re just going to coast on reviews or if they’re going to a more complex reveal strategy.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    wolfali
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    #1203738250

    Variety’s updated their top 15 predictions for Best Actress :

    1. Michelle Pfeiffer
    2. Vanessa Kirby
    3. Frances McDormand
    4. Viola Davis
    5. Jennifer Hudson

    6. Kate Winslet
    7. Andra Day
    8. Carey Mulligan
    9. Sophia Loren
    10. Amy Adams

    11. Jessie Buckley
    12. Rachel Brosnahan
    13. Rashida Jones
    14. Julia Garner
    15. Julianne Moore

    Emulating the coming of Charlize Theron in “Monster” in 2003, with a bold, fearless performance, Vanessa Kirby has the goods to dominate in this category for the season. She awaits the drop of Michelle Pfeiffer in “French Exit” and for Netflix to officially date her film for the calendar year. It’s not sewn up for her though as Frances McDormand will be starring in one of the best picture frontrunners and could move towards Oscar #3.

    https://variety.com/feature/2021-oscars-best-actress-predictions-1234769627/

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Milk Money
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    #1203738273

    Variety’s updated their top 15 predictions for Best Actress :

    1. Michelle Pfeiffer
    2. Vanessa Kirby
    3. Frances McDormand
    4. Viola Davis
    5. Jennifer Hudson

    6. Kate Winslet
    7. Andra Day
    8. Carey Mulligan
    9. Sophia Loren
    10. Amy Adams

    11. Jessie Buckley
    12. Rachel Brosnahan
    13. Rashida Jones
    14. Julia Garner
    15. Julianne Moore

    https://variety.com/feature/2021-oscars-best-actress-predictions-1234769627/

    Hmm… if those are indeed the final five, Jennifer and Viola will likely cancel each other out leaving a Michelle and Frances showdown. Vanessa’s nomination will probably be her reward unless she pulls off a surprise Globe win.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203738280

    Variety’s updated their top 15 predictions for Best Actress : 1. Michelle Pfeiffer 2. Vanessa Kirby 3. Frances McDormand 4. Viola Davis 5. Jennifer Hudson 6. Kate Winslet 7. Andra Day 8. Carey Mulligan 9. Sophia Loren 10. Amy Adams 11. Jessie Buckley 12. Rachel Brosnahan 13. Rashida Jones 14. Julia Garner 15. Julianne Moore https://variety.com/feature/2021-oscars-best-actress-predictions-1234769627/

    Michelle Pfeiffer at the top? That’s confidence! I’m not sure about that though, however we’ll see soon enough.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    Bassett
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    #1203738286

    Hmm… if those are indeed the final five, Jennifer and Viola will likely cancel each other out leaving a Michelle and Frances showdown. Vanessa’s nomination will probably be her reward unless she pulls off a surprise Globe win.

    Why ?

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo
    Best Supp Actress - Glenn Close
    Best Supp Actor - Chadwick Boseman

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1203738288

    Variety’s updated their top 15 predictions for Best Actress :

    1. Michelle Pfeiffer
    2. Vanessa Kirby
    3. Frances McDormand
    4. Viola Davis
    5. Jennifer Hudson

    6. Kate Winslet
    7. Andra Day
    8. Carey Mulligan
    9. Sophia Loren
    10. Amy Adams

    11. Jessie Buckley
    12. Rachel Brosnahan
    13. Rashida Jones
    14. Julia Garner
    15. Julianne Moore

    https://variety.com/feature/2021-oscars-best-actress-predictions-1234769627/

    Poor Elisabeth Moss not even being considered a top 15 contender.

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    wolfali
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    #1203738290

    Hmm… if those are indeed the final five, Jennifer and Viola will likely cancel each other out leaving a Michelle and Frances showdown. Vanessa’s nomination will probably be her reward unless she pulls off a surprise Globe win.

    I actually think Kirby is winning the Globe. The fact that the last four Volpi Cup winners nominated for the Globes won (incl. Blanchett for a supporting performance that lost at the Oscars makes me confident in that).

    And yes she is probably getting nominated at the Globes.

    What I am more interested in with regards to Variety’s predictions is the choice to have Promising Young Woman ahead of Tenet in Picture, Mulligan ahead of Adams and Loren and Fennell in 5th in screenplay. Maybe we’re underestimating it as a contender? Maybe Mulligan is the one people like Pete Hammond at Deadline Hollywood have said is going to shake up the race?

    I hope Promising Young Woman gets released on time because I want to see it SO BAD and Mulligan would be an interesting challenger in the Comedy/Musical Globes race.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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