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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 12)

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    wolfali
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    #1203740614

    A film that will most likely be ignored by the general public can not be compared to it.

    How do you know Hillbilly Elegy will most likely be ignored by the public? Do you have a crystal ball lol?

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Wanda
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    #1203740618

    How do you know Hillbilly Elegy will most likely be ignored by the public? Do you have a crystal ball lol?

    No need to get mad. Like I said, this is just what I expect. If you disagree, just say it and move on.

    Last.fm: https://www.last.fm/es/user/Into_You
    https://letterboxd.com/cherry123/

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    Wanda
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    #1203740620

    I mean, when was the last time Glenn Close had a hit? The 80s maybe? Let’s keep it real.

    Last.fm: https://www.last.fm/es/user/Into_You
    https://letterboxd.com/cherry123/

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    David
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    #1203740634

    I mean, when was the last time Glenn Close had a hit? The 80s maybe? Let’s keep it real.

    I was just about to ask if you’re trolling or not then I looked at Glenn’s filmography since then and thought maybe you do have a point there lmao. Still I do think Hillbilly Elegy has the chance to be big for her though, hopefully this film will be the one to break that streak.

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203740793

    So does ‘Da 5 Bloods’. Rt score doesn’t really play a big role in determining who the contenders are anymore.

    Sorry, but it does. RT is based on “positive reviews Vs negative reviews”, so when a movie is high-rated at RT it means it can be a “consensual player” and it also gives you a perception of how audiences perceived the movie, which is really relevant if you consider the nomination voting (#1 choice, which might recall MT better), but specifically the Best Picture winner (which tries to find the most consensual pick)

    Edgar Pereira
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    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    Cordelia
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    #1203740853

    I take back my Green Book comparison to Hillbilly Elegy for one huge reason.

    I think moreso than a lot of other aspects, Green Book was in the position of being the counter to Netflix. Hillbilly Elegy IS Netflix. When people complained about Netflix getting involved in the Oscars, the implicit message was vote Green Book. I focused too much on the politics when the studio politics are what I should’ve paid attention to.

    Green Book was a pawn promoted to a bishop that preceded to get a checkmate in a vulnerable place for Netflix’s strategies. If not Green Book, that vulnerability could’ve been used to help Bohemian Rhapsody or The Favourite or maybe even Black Panther get to Best Picture. Roma was never going to get it.

    Last year was wishy-washy, where Netflix dropped a lot of potential balls – The Irishman and Marriage Story both underperformed and were nowhere close to the top of the Oscars, The Two Popes missed an attainable Best Picture nomination, and easy cross-category potential for Dolemite Is My Name was ignored. They had all the sauce, and at least weren’t dumb enough to try and make The Laundromat happen, but nonetheless Netflix was the defining underperformance of 2019’s Oscars season.

    This year is very different in studio politics though. A lot of studios seem to be only putting out ONE Oscars player – see below for an incomplete list of examples

    • Amazon: One Night In Miami
    • Disney: Soul
    • Fox Searchlight: Nomadland
    • Sony Pictures Classics: The Father

    But Netflix has it all. However, greed could undermine them. They need to pick a Best Picture frontrunner, a support, and films to laser focus on one category.

    Whichever of Mank/Hillbilly Elegy/Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the perfect combination of critical praise AND accessibility AND Academy friendliness should be put into frontrunner status. This should be announced as the focus of Netflix’s campaigning especially.

    From there comes the laser focus. This is where the campaigns for Delroy Lindo and Vanessa Kirby come in. Don’t campaign for the entirety of Da 5 Bloods and ESPECIALLY Pieces of A Woman*, they are nowhere near Best Picture capable. Maybe if you want to be more than one nomination go for a screenplay nod for Da 5 Bloods and cinematography for Pieces of a woman. But focus and brevity is what these non-primary campaigns needs.

    So my question is – where in this tier list does The Trial of the Chicago 7 fit? Well, we know it isn’t Netflix’s frontrunner. Even with M/HE/MRBB unseen, it is more than likely that one of those will be significantly better. Of the aforementioned triangle of factors, it has accessibility and probably Academy appeal, true, but I don’t know if it has the sauce to be a main contender.

    My hot take is that Netflix should keep Trial as a less central option, maybe get Baron Cohen and the screenplay in. Promote it by all means and if Academy voters love it, centralise it more, but I’d hate to see the equivalent of The Irishman getting no Oscars because Netflix wasted time dicking around with The Two Popes.

    You have the pieces, set up a fucking checkmate while you can.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203740905

    The comparison started with Green Book which was a crowd pleaser. A film that will most likely be ignored by the general public can not be compared to it.

    Green Book wasn’t even watched by that many people… It made most of its money after winning BP.

    rubbish

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    Jays
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    #1203740952

    In movie forums maybe. The general public is not watching this lmao.

    This is incorrect. Hillbilly is a pure crowdpleaser and, if it’s given that Thanksgiving release date, audiences will eat it up. It would have probably been a contender for the TIFF audience award had it played there.

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    fefface
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    #1203740986

    If not Green Book, that vulnerability could’ve been used to help Bohemian Rhapsody or The Favourite or maybe even Black Panther get to Best Picture. Roma was never going to get it.

    Blackkklansman would also have been a better BP than Green Book IMO, the only key nom it missed was John David Washington.

    It is still wild to me that Green Book won.

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    wolfali
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    #1203741102

    Blackkklansman would also have been a better BP than Green Book IMO, the only key nom it missed was John David Washington.

    It is still wild to me that Green Book won.

    I don’t think this is an unpopular opinion.

    Frankly every film that year apart from Bohemian Rhapsody was more deserving than Green Book. It’s a bit disappointing that it won because I don’t know a single person who thought it was a better film than either Blackkklansman or The Favourite.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Miles
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    #1203741163

    Sorry, but it does. RT is based on “positive reviews Vs negative reviews”, so when a movie is high-rated at RT it means it can be a “consensual player” and it also gives you a perception of how audiences perceived the movie, which is really relevant if you consider the nomination voting (#1 choice, which might recall MT better), but specifically the Best Picture winner (which tries to find the most consensual pick)

    I think you mean “consensus player” haha

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    Miles
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    #1203741165

    I do not see a world where Gary Oldman wins. I think this is a Hopkins vs. Kaluuya race

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    Stank83
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    #1203741178

    I wouldn’t call Hopkins a lock for the win yet, since he’s seen as the frontrunner, I expect the big critics awards to push someone else a la Driver and Joaquin/Banderas (Bradley Cooper and Bale/ Hawke) that someone else could be Kuluya and if this works, he could be the Marion Cotillard to Hopkins Julie Christie.

    I think in this case Lindo will be the Driver of this year.

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    David
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    #1203741194

    I think in this case Lindo will be the Driver of this year.

    I feel like Lindo is more like the Banderas of this year for some reason.

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    Jays
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    #1203741198

    The thing with Hopkins is his performance is so raved that he could easily win critic awards too lol. I think Lindo will win his fair share as well, don’t get me wrong. I don’t see Kaluuya picking up any critic awards unless his film is absolutely raved (which I don’t think it’ll be).

    Hopkins will probably take this easily unless Kaluuya’s film becomes a contender for the BP win. Hopkins film hasn’t dipped in terms of critical reception, if anything it’s gotten stronger. It’ll contend for other categories, as opposed to just being an acting thing. I think Zeller could even get into director.

    Also it’s important to note Hopkins hasn’t won an acting Globe or a SAG award so he could be seen as due there. BAFTA is pretty much locked as well.

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