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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 12)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203721247

    I see a lot of people predicting Nomadland to win Best Picture but lose Best Adapted Screenplay because it’s a slow film with minimal plot. Putting the film aside and looking at recent trends, this is very unlikely to happen. Since the categroy expanded to 10 nominees, 9 of the last 11 Best Picture winners won their corresponding Screenplay category. Only 6 of those films won Director. So Screenplay is very closely tied to Picture now, even more so than Director. Spotlight won Picture with only 1 additional win: for Screenplay.

    As for this year’s category, Nomadland’s biggest competitors are all adaptations of plays. It’s been 30 years since an adaptation of a play won Best Adapted Screenplay: Driving Mrs. Daisy was the last one. All of the last 30 winners in this category have been adaptations of books, like Nomadland.

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203721251

    I made a post on this a while ago but tldr: the 1st Place film on GoldDerby odds for Best Picture has lost 6 years in a row to the 2nd place on GoldDerby odds. So technically 2nd Place is the frontrunner.

    When Mank reviews comes out and its officially released, it will shoot to 1st place. Lots of silent users/experts will put it as their number one by virtue of its sheer baitiness. Movies like Nomadland that play well at festivals, have critical buzz at the start of the season always go quiet midway, and surge again during the period right before nominations are announced/awards season kicks in.

    rubbish

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    JackO
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    #1203721278

    Nomadland wins the Toronto International Film Festival People’s Choice Award.

    One Night in Miami came in second place.

    Beans came in third place.

    All 3 films were directed by women of color (Chloé Zhao, Regina King, Tracy Deer).

    wow nomadland is defitnely the frontrunner now. and people been sleeping on one night in miami lol

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203721283

    I made a post on this a while ago but tldr: the 1st Place film on GoldDerby odds for Best Picture has lost 6 years in a row to the 2nd place on GoldDerby odds. So technically 2nd Place is the frontrunner.

    That will change eventually. There will come a time when a film stays the frontrunner throughout and wins.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203721287

    I see a lot of people predicting Nomadland to win Best Picture but lose Best Adapted Screenplay because it’s a slow film with minimal plot. Putting the film aside and looking at recent trends, this is very unlikely to happen. Since the categroy expanded to 10 nominees, 9 of the last 11 Best Picture winners won their corresponding Screenplay category. Only 6 of those films won Director. So Screenplay is very closely tied to Picture now, even more so than Director. Spotlight won Picture with only 1 additional win: for Screenplay. As for this year’s category, Nomadland’s biggest competitors are all adaptations of plays. It’s been 30 years since an adaptation of a play won Best Adapted Screenplay: Driving Mrs. Daisy was the last one. All of the last 30 winners in this category have been adaptations of books, like Nomadland.

    Good points!

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    Human Bartender
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    #1203721675

    Yeah you’re right, Lawrence was not the foremost character in SLP. Stone was, however. I felt it was very obvious that La La Land was primarily her journey, and the role Gosling’s character played in it. And yes, McDormand obviously counts, that was the whole point of what I was saying.

    The McDormand mention made it seem like she wasn’t part of the list. And I disagree, Gosling’s journey is given just as much focus as her’s.

    Let’s Go Bucks

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    Cordelia
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    #1203721869

    I think we should appreciate how these wins are the best case scenario. Falling and Good Joe Bell missed so those films of overexposed actor egos tackling issues of homophobia won’t have a Green Book effect. Good Joe Bell was purchased by Solsitice Studios, relative nobodies.

    I am surprised Nomadland got the top, but I guess maybe it is more populist than expected.

    Side note – with my VPN and a little bit of fuckery, I did watch a few TIFF films. Not the big tickets I wanted to see the most (Nomadland, Ammonite, One Night in Miami, The Father), but some.

    Good Joe Bell just plain sucks in a way that makes me dread Mark Wahlberg becoming an Oscar player somehow, because this is that sort of movie. I know this is a very immature way to put it, but a lot of this movie just straight up made me cringe. Not the kind that reflects intentional writing choices made for discomfort, but the kind that comes from an artistic vision that has so deeply lost the plot.

    Wolfwalkers, on the other hand, is fucking excellent. Easily Cartoon Saloon’s best movie, a gorgeously animated film that has more plot layers than I expected going in. Reminded me of the different loyalties and conflicts in Princess Mononoke. Might be the best movie I’ve seen this year so far. Soul is going to have to be a masterpiece for me to want it to beat this for Animated Feature.

    Concrete Cowboy was good. I’m not quite sure it’s an awards player, but it is a well-done exploration of a father son relationship. Maybe a slightly leaner script would’ve made it better, but I enjoyed it.

    MLK/FBI is a good movie that I suspect will hit harder for people who haven’t read about this subject beforehand. The presentation is good enough that I liked it anyway, but the revelations are what would really give it impact.

     

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203723954

    That will change eventually. There will come a time when a film stays the frontrunner throughout and wins.

    I guess you’re probably right, but I trusted the pattern in 2016 and 2018 and earlier this year and it came through for me. So I will trust it again and again until it’s broken.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203723963

    and people been sleeping on one night in miami lol

    I’ll admit I was one of those people. It seeme drive one of those films with great reviews that would be forgotten but I was proven wrong.

    That being said, I’m still not predicting King for Best Director. I thinks she’ll be snubbed.

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    DaKardii
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    #1203724060

    “END OF WEEK 2” PREDICTIONS

    Best Picture

    1. Mank
    2. Nomadland
    3. One Night in Miami
    4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    6. Dune
    7. News of the World
    8. The French Dispatch
    9. Hillbilly Elegy
    10. West Side Story

    Best Director

    1. David Fincher (Mank)
    2. Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
    3. Regina King (One Night in Miami)
    4. Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
    5. Wes Anderson (The French Dispatch)

    Best Actor

    1. Gary Oldman (Mank)
    2. Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods)
    3. Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
    4. Tom Hanks (News of the World)
    5. Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

    Best Actress

    1. Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
    2. Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
    3. Kate Winslet (Ammonite)
    4. Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy)
    5. Jennifer Hudson (Respect)

    Best Supporting Actor

    1. Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
    2. Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
    3. Jeremy Strong (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
    4. David Strathairn (Nomadland)
    5. Charles Dance (Mank)

    Best Supporting Actress

    1. Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
    2. Olivia Colman (The Father)
    3. Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite)
    4. Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
    5. Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

    Best Original Screenplay

    1. Mank
    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    3. The French Dispatch
    4. Ammonite
    5. On the Rocks

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    1. Nomadland
    2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    3. Hillbilly Elegy
    4. One Night in Miami
    5. News of the World
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    Hoster1
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    #1203724078

    Emmy winners Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Jeremy Strong are coming for their Oscar noms!

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    wolfali
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    #1203724094

    Emmy winners Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Jeremy Strong are coming for their Oscar noms!

    And Tom Pelphrey will get snubbed again lol.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203724256

    As it turns out, the numbers previously reported for Mulan’s Disney Plus rental gross in America were incorrect. This article from Forbes box office analyst breaks it down.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2020/09/20/mulan-making-sense-of-its-box-office-and-pvod-grosses/#2ebf40433d13

    Apparently the previous reports were saying that 29% of all Disney Plus subscribers in America watched Mulan, when the actual numbers were that 29% of Disney Plus subscribers in America who used Disney Plus between September 4th and 12th watched Mulan. So that leaves us with a significantly smaller number of about 3.1 million $30 rentals, or $93 Million. That’s still a good start, about on par with Trolls World Tour, but not good enough, considering how badly Mulan performed in China.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203724269

    Soul is going to have to be a masterpiece for me to want it to beat this for Animated Feature.

    Considering that it’s director made Inside Out and Up, two of the best animated movies of all time, I think it will be. That being said, I’m very excited to see Wolfwalkers. It sounds like a lock for Best Animated Feature nomination at least based on it’s critical reception.

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    JackO
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    #1203724358

    I’ll admit I was one of those people. It seeme drive one of those films with great reviews that would be forgotten but I was proven wrong.

    That being said, I’m still not predicting King for Best Director. I thinks she’ll be snubbed.

    probably happens. The branch hates actors turned directors. I have her in for now but mostly just waiting to see where the indie/foreign director slot goes too.

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