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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 12)

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    Dr. Manhattan
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    Dec 7th, 2015
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    #1203724462

    Something I’ve noticed between the correlation between the Best Director Oscar and TIFF’s People Choice Award is that the past three winners of the latter award were not nominated for the former award. All of those three TIFF winners did nab Directing noms at the DGA, but none were nominated for Best Director at the Oscars.

    With Chloé Zhao winning TIFF’s People Choice Award and also being a strong candidate to win Best Director for Nomadland, I wonder whether or not she will be a victim to this new trend. I’m likely overthinking this trend and I won’t be removing her from my prediction list because of this. Still, her being snubbed of a nomination is a possibility, even if it is a slim one.

    On a similar note, absolutely no film since 2007 that was a runner-up for the People Choice Award has been nominated for Best Director. Again, this doesn’t entirely destroy Regina King’s chances at a BD nom, but it does signify a likely snub.

    Looking forward to seeing how this all pans out!

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    ENGLAND
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    #1203724490

    “Her new sports drama Bruised finds her at her busiest and best in years, choosing a project that has the potential to become here masterwork.

    It’s been nearly 20 years since Halle Berry’s Best Actress win for Monster’s Ball, and this is probably the grittiest thing she’s made since then. Even for an actor defined by her work in action films (like the X-Men, Kingsman, John Wick and James Bond franchises, to name a few) this is among the most intense action she’s ever done. And it’s in a sports movie.

    Berry plays Jackie Justice, a disgraced MMA fighter who abandoned a UFC match and hasn’t had a professional fight for six years. When a new promoter creating a league (Toronto’s Shamier Anderson) asks her to fight for $20,000, she gets a chance to win back the respect of her family, colleagues and young, fatherless son.

    Even with the clue of “fighting”, if you don’t know what sport or events MMA or UFC reference, stay as far away from the film as possible. The mixed martial arts cage matches are brutal to watch, though somewhat sensitized compared to live events seen on TV.

    The movie depicts the sport as ruthless and uncompromising as it truly is with gut punches, swollen eyes, head jabs and all. It’s hard violence, yes, but it’s never gross or so bloody you’re forced to look away from the screen.

    What’s most impressive is Berry’s fight choreography and her execution in the ring. Her performance as Justice is engrossing enough as we see her fight ordinary battles in her life, but her ability to show character in both training and the 20-minute climactic final fight are seriously impressive. The fact she also filmed this and could do training this aggressive at age 53 is more impressive still – she’s very believable as an elite athlete.”

    Great review for Halle. Also, the supporting cast for Bruised was highlighted in the review. She’s coming for that 2nd nod!

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    Milk Money
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    Oct 2nd, 2013
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    #1203724519

    I see a lot of people predicting Nomadland to win Best Picture but lose Best Adapted Screenplay because it’s a slow film with minimal plot. Putting the film aside and looking at recent trends, this is very unlikely to happen. Since the categroy expanded to 10 nominees, 9 of the last 11 Best Picture winners won their corresponding Screenplay category. Only 6 of those films won Director. So Screenplay is very closely tied to Picture now, even more so than Director. Spotlight won Picture with only 1 additional win: for Screenplay.

    As for this year’s category, Nomadland’s biggest competitors are all adaptations of plays. It’s been 30 years since an adaptation of a play won Best Adapted Screenplay: Driving Mrs. Daisy was the last one. All of the last 30 winners in this category have been adaptations of books, like Nomadland.

    Technically, Moonlight was adapted from an unreleased play, but I see your point. I think Picture and Adapted Screenplay will be Chloe’s wins.

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    gorman
    Joined:
    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1203724608

    I think that the People’s Choice win for Nomadland is important in dispelling some of the early worries that it will be too subdued and small to be popular with Academy voters. All signs so far point to it being a crowd and critic pleaser that will be a major player at the Oscars – to win TIFF and Venice and be the centrepiece at NYFF can only bode well. I’m sticking with it for Picture and Adapted, I also think Zhao and McDormand have a very good chance to win too.

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    Kay
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    Feb 22nd, 2019
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    #1203724621

    S. Actor

    1. Chadwick Boseman

    2. Leslie Odom-Jr

    3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

    4. Jeremy Strong

    5. Bill Murray

    6. Lakeith Stanfield

    7. Tom Burke

    8. Charles Dance

    9. Tom Pelphrey

    10. Eli Goree

    So many Black actors as the front runners. You have too much faith in the Oscars

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    David
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    Aug 18th, 2018
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    #1203725169

    Do you guys think that since Yahya and Strong won last night it will boost their chances for a nom??? I don’t really think so tbh, I think it definitely helps put them on the radar, but I still don’t know who will be the standout out of Chicago 7 since it’s such a large ensemble piece. I’m leaning more towards Sbc and Redmayne or Strong at the moment.

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    wolfali
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    #1203725204

    Do you guys think that since Yahya and Strong won last night it will boost their chances for a nom??? I don’t really think so tbh, I think it definitely helps put them on the radar, but I still don’t know who will be the standout out of Chicago 7 since it’s such a large ensemble piece. I’m leaning more towards Sbc and Redmayne or Strong at the moment.

    It won’t guarantee them nominations (Claire Foy says hi) but I think Strong is a sure thing at the Globes and SAG now considering how they snubbed him for Succession and they probably will want to nominate him for both Succession and The Trial of the Chicago 7 (if the latter is successful).

    Neither of them have a chance at the win though,

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Edgar Pereira
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    Jun 29th, 2011
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    #1203725221

    “Her new sports drama Bruised finds her at her busiest and best in years, choosing a project that has the potential to become here masterwork.

    (…)

    Great review for Halle. Also, the supporting cast for Bruised was highlighted in the review. She’s coming for that 2nd nod!

    I’m glad! Oscars 2022, here she goes!

    Edgar Pereira
    .
    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    Brayfers
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2018
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    #1203725384

    I’m glad! Oscars 2022, here she goes!

    Imagine

    Best Actress 2021: Viola Davis

    Best Actress 2022: Halle Berry

     

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    Aug 18th, 2020
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    #1203725591

    Imagine Best Actress 2021: Viola Davis Best Actress 2022: Halle Berry

    This would require placing an extraordinary amount of faith in voters’ ability to vote responsibly

    rubbish

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    ENGLAND
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    Oct 5th, 2011
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    #1203725668

    I believe Bruised is being released this year on Netflix.

    Could be the first year that two women of color are nominated for Best Actress since 1972.

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    DevonshireGold
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    Jun 14th, 2019
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    #1203725680

    I read Netflix are saving Bruised and Malcolm & Marie for next year. Bruised was only a rough cut.

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    bellajoe
    Joined:
    Nov 2nd, 2016
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    #1203725943

    Let’s let Halle get director next year. Academy Award Winner Zendaya is a must for 2022.

    FYC Oscars 2021:
    Best Picture: Nomadland, Minari
    Best Actress: Amy Adams, Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Documentary: Gunda
    Best Song: Boss Bitch- Doja Cat

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    May 3rd, 2015
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    #1203725959

    I believe Bruised is being released this year on Netflix.

    Could be the first year that two women of color are nominated for Best Actress since 1972.

    Assuming that only one of Davis, Day or Hudson makes it this year.

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    Wanda
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    Feb 16th, 2019
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    #1203725975

    Unrelated, but does anyone know what will happen with the films restored for cannes? Will they be up for sale or something?

    Last.fm: https://www.last.fm/es/user/Into_You
    https://letterboxd.com/cherry123/

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