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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 13)

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    OneAndOnly
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    #1203744655

    Yeah, Kirby can definitely get a nomination, but I have a very hard time seeing her win.

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins- The Father
    FYC: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Male/Straight/BLM

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203744667

    Yeh? When was the last time a character like Hopkins’ has won best actor lol?

    What does this even mean? You’re just pulling straws at this point.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    wolfali
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    #1203744672

    if we go by the Volpi stuff… she’ll inevitably get snubbed.

    If we go by the Volpi stuff she’s winning the Golden Globe because apart from Alba Rohrwacher in 2014 (who was an unknown Italian actress in an Italian film that didn’t get good distribution) all the winners of the Volpi Cup for English speaking performances have won the Golden Globe since Helen Mirren won this award in 2006.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    estrelas
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    #1203744684

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Best Actress ended being like 2014 race, where only one of the nominees was in a BP nominee. In that case that person would be Frances. That way I could actually see Vanessa winning.

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    David
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    #1203744708

    I love Kirby and all, but we can’t keep bringing in stats into a year like this. A lot of films skipped the festivals which helped her chances of winning that award. I see Kirby being nominated, but i don’t see her being a threat to win unless davis and the rest of the best actress contenders flop. She’s also a relative newcomer who’s film got mixed reviews and is likely not to get any nominations outsider of her, which will most likely hurt her chances.

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    Hayden
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    #1203744734

    Oh yeah, I forgot about Coco’s win (whcih should have been The Greatest Showman’s win, but I digress). Still, that’s the only other nomination they’ve gotten since 2010.

    And I don’t think Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are at the point where they can get two nominations in one year: that type of honor is reserved for legends like Hans Zimmer, Thomas Newman, or John Williams.

    Toy Story 4 got a Best Song nomination.
    Bao and Piper won Best Animated Short.
    Day & Night, La Luna, Sanjay’s Super Team, Borrowed Time, Lou and Kitbull were all nominated for Best Animated Short.

    That’s 10 nominations outside of Screenplay/Animated Feature since 2010, with 3 wins (including Remember Me). Now, I’m cheating a bit, because Toy Story 4 is the only feature up there, but the Academy definitely isn’t sleeping on Pixar by any means. Don’t write off Soul for nominations outside of Screenplay/Animated Feature. I could see it landing upwards for 5 nominations this year.

    And I can’t agree about that last bit. Reznor & Ross have more Oscars than Newman, and equal to Zimmer. I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t land two nominations in the same category this year, especially when the field is somewhat flimsy.

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    tsc
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    #1203744736

    A24 will campaign for First Cow and Minari this awards season.

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    Hayden
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    #1203744741

    Sorry, definitely an overstatement. I meant all of whom won in the 21st century.

    Sorry… that’s also not true :s

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    wolfali
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    #1203744758

    I love Kirby and all, but we can’t keep bringing in stats into a year like this. A lot of films skipped the festivals which helped her chances of winning that award. I see Kirby being nominated, but i don’t see her being a threat to win unless davis and the rest of the best actress contenders flop. She’s also a relative newcomer who’s film got mixed reviews and is likely not to get any nominations outsider of her, which will most likely hurt her chances.

    Mixed reviews? It got 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. Sure it got 69 on Metacritic but considering how people have won Best Actress with lower scores I doubt the Metacritic score hurts her (especially when the first 30 minutes of the film which is meant to be her biggest showcase has received a huge amount of acclaim in every review including the less optimistic ones of the film).

    Also you say it is likely not to get any nominations outside of her but Ellen Burstyn is a competitor for a nomination in S. Actress. I mean according to the Goldderby odds she’s being predicted for a nomination.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    wolfali
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    #1203744775

    When you know you’ve won an argument with someone because the person who is arguing against you has decided to resort to posting gifs and memes as their response to a statistic because they can’t articulate a counter-argument…

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Jays
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    #1203744780

    Because she just won a very prestigious award where in recent times practically all the English speaking performances apart from one in an unknown Italian film have been nominated since 2001, all of them have won the Globe since Helen Mirren won and the last two English speaking performance winners have won the Oscar.

    She also has received quite a lot of individual praise for her performance from critics, audiences and actors with some stating she gives a “game-changing” and “career defining” performance. She’s by no means a lock for the win but to discount her at this stage is premature when we don’t know what the reception to Pfeiffer, Davis and Adams’ performances will be and her only competition for the win seems to be from McDormand.

    I’m not discounting the praise Kirby has received for her performance. I’m talking about how Kirby isn’t winning for her performance in THAT specific film. Just look at the winners of Best Actress this last decade and there is no one who won for a film that seems as inaccessible as Kirby’s. If she was in a crowdpleaser or if she was playing a real life person or if she had to physically transform, then I might think she has a chance. But that’s not the case. Also, the film isn’t even unanimously praised. It’ll probably end up in the 60’s on MC, maybe low 70’s. For a film that inaccessible or that hard to watch, she’d need the film be raaaaaved.

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    wolfali
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    #1203744785

    A lot of films skipped the festivals which helped her chances of winning that award.

    If they didn’t want to give the Volpi cup to her and help her awards chances then they would have given it to another actress from a film that was not in the English language.

    After all that is what they did last year at Venice.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    David
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    #1203744789

    Mixed reviews? It got 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. Sure it got 69 on Metacritic but considering how people have won Best Actress with lower scores I doubt the Metacritic score hurts her (especially when the first 30 minutes of the film which is meant to be her biggest showcase has received a huge amount of acclaim in every review including the less optimistic ones of the film). Also you say it is likely not to get any nominations outside of her but Ellen Burstyn is a competitor for a nomination in S. Actress. I mean according to the Goldderby odds she’s being predicted for a nomination.

    It got mixed reviews. I’ve seen people praise the film or just totally dislike it and were overwhelmed by it. Most of the people who won best actress with lower scores were already familiar faces to the academy as well or they were playing real baity parts (real people). I’m not saying Kirby has no chance of winning. All I’m saying she’s not a major threat to win and I can see a scenario where she just gets snubbed (hopefully that doesn’t happen).

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    diego
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    Dec 10th, 2019
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    #1203744795

    A24 will campaign for First Cow and Minari this awards season.

    Yeah so another year of A24 not doing well.

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    David
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    #1203744801

    If they didn’t want to give the Volpi cup to her and help her awards chances then they would have given it to another actress from a film that was not in the English language. After all that is what they did last year at Venice.

    I’m not saying they didn’t want to give it to her lol. I’m just saying the competition wasn’t as heavy as previous years due to A LOT of films skipping the festivals, which ended up helping her securing that award.

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