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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 13)

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    Jacob Boe
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    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1203743704

    Cinema is not always about entertainment, what??? Cinema is an art form that allows filmmakers from all over the world to share unique storytelling and bring it to the silver screen (I really sound like my professor right now lol). If you think cinema should always be about entertainment, then I feel like you misconstrued the true meaning of it.

    But entertainment can be found in different ways. Sure, there’s the action of Black Panther and Mad Max: Fury Road, but there’s also the romance of Carol and The Shape of Water, or the inquisitiveness of Arrival and Brooklyn, and the sensitivity of Roma and Lady Bird. The “best picture of the year” should be the film that entertains you the most, regardless of how it does that. It should be the movie you want to rewatch over-and-over. After all, knowing how Romeo and Juliet ends doesn’t make it any less profound (which can equate to entertaining). The rewatchability is key; knowing how something ends shouldn’t ruin the enjoyment of the story. And it’s the enjoyment of a story that should draw you in in the first place.

    And, Occult Cherry, agree to disagree.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203743710

    If Hopkins wins Golden Globe and SAG because he never won before and he most probably wins BAFTA, the momentum is definitely on his side to win the Oscar.

    And he’ll win CC because they’re sheep who follow the Globes.

    Did someone say full sweep? Cause that’s what I’ve been saying for months now.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    David
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    #1203743714

    And he’ll win CC because they’re sheep who follow the Globes. Did someone say full sweep? Cause that’s what I’ve been saying for months now.

    Still don’t think it’ll be a clean sweep mainly bc it’s too early to tell and we haven’t even saw Oldman, Hanks, or Kaluuya yet.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203743719

    Nomadland’s score has been deemed ineligible. (Not sure if that’s been mentioned or not yet). I figured it was the frontrunner. Now it’s between Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross (Soul or Mank, either one really) and Hans Zimmer (Dune). Maybe Branford Marsalis, but I can’t see the Academy swinging that way.

    Zimmer is the frontrunner if Dune stays in 2020 or is moved to early 2021, which I think is more likely than not. If it’s delayed, then it’s either Reznor and Ross (for Mank. Soul is being overestimated: Pixar hasn’t gotten a nom outside of Original Screenplay or Animated since 2010: not even with the universally acclaimed Inside Out, Coco, and Toy Story 4) or Gorransson (but I don’t see him winning his 2nd so soon).

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Human Bartender
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    #1203743721

    I swear the people on this board… Kaluuya plays a real life person in an extremely 2020 movie that is likely to smash the cultural conversation when it gets released. No black actor have won since 2007 and it’s not like he’s a nobody at this point, if he’s raved I don’t see why he shouldn’t win. Remember legend Peter O’Toole was passed over for Forrest Whitaker despite being the most overdue actor ever, it’s not like voters ignored that (O’Toole was on his 8th nom)… Jamie Foxx a no one cares actor at that time, won over legend Eastwood in a best picture winner and DiCaprio in Aviator… the acting like Hopkins needs second Oscar to validate his legendary actor status like Chile… I’d actually believe that had he won a supporting Oscar.

    I don’t believe O’Toole had the same enormous raves that Hopkins is currently getting. And O’Toole was his film’s lone representative, while Hopkin’s movie is currently looking like a major contender.

    Not to mention, in terms of the opponents you’re comparing, while Kaluuya is a respected up and comer, he has nowhere near the goodwill that a veteran like Whitaker built up over his career.

    As for Foxx, let’s not forget that in addition to an acclaimed performance in an extremely baity part, the man Foxx was portraying had recently passed away, almost certainly giving him an additional level of goodwill. And Eastwood was obviously gonna win Director that year, so him losing Actor is pretty mute I’d say.

    Also I don’t think anyone is saying Hopkins needs a second Oscar to validate his status as a legend. People seem to be pushing for him to win because they love him and he’s apparently struck gold with this part.

    Let’s Go Bucks

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203743723

    Still don’t think it’ll be a clean sweep mainly bc it’s too early to tell and we haven’t even saw Oldman, Hanks, or Kaluuya yet.

    Oldman just won a few years ago: he won’t be competitive. Hanks will probably be snubbed again, and even if he is nominated they gave him two wins in a row: they won’t give him a 3rd. Kaluuya won’t win for reasons already mentioned.

    Hopkins’ biggest threat is Lindo, but Da Five Bloods isn’t likely to get many other nominations, and Lindo is outmatched in acclaim by Hopkins, as is his film by Hopkins’ film.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203743725

    I never sold the prestige argument, you would know if you actually read the thread!

    I never said you did. I was simply saying it was a dumb argument when the Oscars have nominated plenty of non-prestige films recently.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    David
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    #1203743730

    Oldman just won a few years ago: he won’t be competitive. Hanks will probably be snubbed again, and even if he is nominated they gave him two wins in a row: they won’t give him a 3rd. Kaluuya won’t win for reasons already mentioned. Hopkins’ biggest threat is Lindo, but Da Five Bloods isn’t likely to get many other nominations, and Lindo is outmatched in acclaim by Hopkins, as is his film by Hopkins’ film.

    I wasn’t saying Oldman was going to be a big factor. All I’m trying to say is we don’t know the quality of those three performances yet, it could be their career bests. It’s too early to say anybody is going to sweep right now. Hopkins is def the frontrunner, nobody is denying that, but he could be derailed by one of thos three and I’m thinking Kaluuya has the best chances to do so. Hoping Hanks doesn’t get snubbed again either.

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    OccultCherry
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    #1203743756

    Both of Ludovico Einaudi’s scores this year (for The Father and Nomadland) won’t be eligible for the Oscars, knocking out two pretty strong contenders of the race early on.

    Sorry, for some reason I read “score” as Metacritic score and was super confused. That’s a shame because both have beautiful scores.

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    Brae
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    #1203743799

    Oldman just won a few years ago: he won’t be competitive. Hanks will probably be snubbed again, and even if he is nominated they gave him two wins in a row: they won’t give him a 3rd. Kaluuya won’t win for reasons already mentioned. Hopkins’ biggest threat is Lindo, but Da Five Bloods isn’t likely to get many other nominations, and Lindo is outmatched in acclaim by Hopkins, as is his film by Hopkins’ film.

    I don’t think Hanks is winning this year (or getting nominated frankly) but I don’t see how two wins back in the 90’s would count him out narrative-wise 3 decades later. If Hanks shows up one of these years with an undeniable performance I’d have no problems predicting him for a 3rd win.

    That said, most roles haven’t been seen yet and it’s so ridiculous to count anyone out at this point. Personally I think it’ll be Kaluuya, but of course like everyone else I’m waiting to see the performance that comes with that. I think you’re overestimating Hopkins and underestimating everybody else. Oldman can’t win because of a recent win but McDormand can win when her last win was the same years as Oldmans? Make it make sense.

    In general, I also think this forum places too much value on the concept of narrative. There’s been a lot of changes to the academy itself lately and I think that using prior years as precursors could be a mistake. They’re mostly becoming interesting stats by now. The Academy is not an autonomous person who makes decisions as one entity, its a group of members that are rapidly changing to catch up with the world… So I think the actual performance is going to soon become more valuable than “The Narrative” – Hopkins clearly has the performance too, I’m not saying he won’t win. Let’s just stop counting everyone else out.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    Feb 23rd, 2017
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    #1203743801

    Hoping Hanks doesn’t get snubbed again either.

    Well he did get nominated for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, so don’t count him out.

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    David
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    #1203743805

    I don’t think Hanks is winning this year (or getting nominated frankly) but I don’t see how two wins back in the 90’s would count him out narrative-wise 3 decades later. If Hanks shows up one of these years with an undeniable performance I’d have no problems predicting him for a 3rd win. That said, most roles haven’t been seen yet and it’s so ridiculous to count anyone out at this point. Personally I think it’ll be Kaluuya, but of course like everyone else I’m waiting to see the performance that comes with that. I think you’re overestimating Hopkins and underestimating everybody else. Oldman can’t win because of a recent win but McDormand can win when her last win was the same years as Oldmans? Make it make sense. In general, I also think this forum places too much value on the concept of narrative. There’s been a lot of changes to the academy itself lately and I think that using prior years as precursors could be a mistake. They’re mostly becoming interesting stats by now. The Academy is not an autonomous person who makes decisions as one entity, its a group of members that are rapidly changing to catch up with the world… So I think the actual performance is going to soon become more valuable than “The Narrative” – Hopkins clearly has the performance too, I’m not saying he won’t win. Let’s just stop counting everyone else out.

    Thank you! Couldn’t have said it any better.

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    Human Bartender
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    #1203743813

    Read again Greg! that’s what they been saying, in fact that is the narrative they’re selling. In 2020, the performance is just a formality like people no longer predict acting Oscars based on them and you should know by now.

    There’s always other factors in play, but to say the performance is just a formality is just incorrect. The only recent winner I know who that applies to is Dern who was helped mostly by narrative and an extremely weak lineup. The other winners last year also had narratives, but they were clearly boosted by critically acclaimed performances.

    Hell, look at just two years ago with Olivia Colman and Regina King. They were both up against two of the most famously snubbed actresses of all time who had way stronger narratives than they did. Despite that, Colman and King won, even though neither had much in the way of narrative. Those were undoubtedly wins based on the performance.

    Let’s Go Bucks

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    Brae
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    #1203743844

    I agree with everything you said… except this. The narrative has always been a part of the Oscars and will continue to do so… this year for example 3 of the 4 acting winners won for their narratives than their actual performances and the Emmys have been catching up as well, C Laura Linney losing to Zendaya despite the former having a hell of a performance….

    I don’t know if you watched Euphoria or not, but that was a clearly deserved Emmy. She had the goods to back that up. I don’t think narratives mean nothing, but I do think we’ll see a future where they go hand in hand more with the performances. It doesn’t help that the concept of the narrative can be applied to almost any working actor. Up and comer, comebacks, social wins, legend status, overdue, breakout performance, comedian turned serious, posthumous, career win, famous figure, etc. Find me someone who doesn’t fit these molds. We use them on the forum to contextualise a bit but I doubt the actual voters are sitting there doing the maths on Hugh Jackmans last nomination or whatever lol

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203744040

    SAG voters are aware of it when Denzel won his first SAG in the middle of the Casey Affleck sweep.

    I’m not convinced that was the main reason but I’m open to being persuaded otherwise.

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