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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 6)

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    Chris Beachum
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    Part 6 is now open on your Oscar discussions.

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    Royal Night
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    Catherine Deneuve has been receiving pretty positive reviews for her performance in The Truth. It was just released by IFC on Friday. I’m not sure if it would be enough to last until into next year but thought I’d mention her since I don’t believe I have seen her talked about.

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    Heptapod
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    #1203569130

    Compiled lists of what releases are looking like for everything. The only movies I’ve put in definitely for this year are confirmed streaming releases that won’t be hindered by the theater situation (all Netflix except for On the Rocks, which will be released by Apple). The pretty likelies are movies that are definitely finished and either have early enough release dates that even if they’re shifted they probably won’t be out of eligibility, have already shown at festivals, or have campaigns already in motion.

    ALREADY RELEASED:
    Da 5 Bloods
    The Invisible Man

    DEFINITELY THIS YEAR:
    Hillbilly Elegy
    I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Mank
    On the Rocks
    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    PRETTY LIKELY FOR THIS YEAR:
    Black Widow
    The Father
    The French Dispatch
    Minari
    Mulan
    No Time to Die
    Promising Young Woman
    A Quiet Place Part II
    Respect
    Soul
    Tenet
    Those Who Wish Me Dead

    PROBABLY THIS YEAR:
    Ammonite
    Deep Water
    The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    French Exit
    Happiest Season
    News of the World
    Red, White and Water
    Stillwater
    West Side Story
    The Woman in the Window

    PROBABLY NEXT YEAR:
    Annette
    C’mon C’mon
    Dune
    Next Goal Wins
    Nomadland
    Prisoner 760

    DEFINITELY NEXT YEAR:
    Amsterdam
    Blonde
    The Devil All the Time
    In the Heights
    The Last Duel
    Nightmare Alley
    The Prom
    The Tragedy of Macbeth

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    Nicco
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    #1203569153

    Compiled lists of what releases are looking like for everything. The only movies I’ve put in definitely for this year are confirmed streaming releases that won’t be hindered by the theater situation (all Netflix except for On the Rocks, which will be released by Apple). The pretty likelies are movies that are definitely finished and either have early enough release dates that even if they’re shifted they probably won’t be out of eligibility, have already shown at festivals, or have campaigns already in motion. ALREADY RELEASED: Da 5 Bloods The Invisible Man DEFINITELY THIS YEAR: Hillbilly Elegy I’m Thinking of Ending Things Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Mank On the Rocks The Trial of the Chicago 7 PRETTY LIKELY FOR THIS YEAR: Black Widow The Father The French Dispatch Minari Mulan No Time to Die Promising Young Woman A Quiet Place Part II Respect Soul Tenet Those Who Wish Me Dead PROBABLY THIS YEAR: Ammonite Deep Water The Eyes of Tammy Faye French Exit Happiest Season News of the World Red, White and Water Stillwater West Side Story The Woman in the Window PROBABLY NEXT YEAR: Annette C’mon C’mon Dune Next Goal Wins Nomadland Prisoner 760 DEFINITELY NEXT YEAR: Amsterdam Blonde The Devil All the Time In the Heights The Last Duel Nightmare Alley The Prom The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Dune, Ammonite, The French Dispatch is definitely this year, Annette is definitely next year.

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    Heptapod
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    PICTURE:
    Ammonite
    The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    The French Dispatch
    Hillbilly Elegy
    ***Mank
    On the Rocks
    Red, White and Water
    Soul
    Those Who Wish Me Dead
    The Trial of the Chicago 7
    SPOILER: Da 5 Bloods

    DIRECTOR:
    Wes Anderson for The French Dispatch
    Sofia Coppola for On the Rocks
    ***David Fincher for Mank
    Francis Lee for Ammonite
    Lila Neugebauer for Red, White and Water
    SPOILER: Spike Lee for Da 5 Bloods

    LEAD ACTRESS:
    Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy
    ***Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Jennifer Lawrence in Red, White and Water
    Kate Winslet in Ammonite
    SPOILER: Angelina Jolie in Those Who Wish Me Dead

    LEAD ACTOR:
    Andrew Garfield in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Anthony Hopkins in The Father
    ***Bill Murray in On the Rocks
    Gary Oldman in Mank
    Jesse Plemons in I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    SPOILER: Tom Hanks in News of the World

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    ***Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
    Olivia Colman in The Father
    Cherry Jones in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Saoirse Ronan in Ammonite
    Amanda Seyfried in Mank
    SPOILER: Toni Collette in I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Tom Burke in Mank
    ***Brian Tyree Henry in Red, White and Water
    Tom Pelphrey in Mank
    Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7
    SPOILER: Steven Yeun in Minari

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
    Happiest Season by Clea DuVall and Mary Holland
    Mank by Jack Fincher
    ***On the Rocks by Sofia Coppola
    Soul by Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers, and Tina Fey
    The Trial of the Chicago 7 by Aaron Sorkin
    SPOILER: Minari by Lee Isaac Chung

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    ***The Eyes of Tammy Faye by Abe Sylvia
    Hillbilly Elegy by Vanessa Taylor
    I’m Thinking of Ending Things by Charlie Kaufman
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom by Ruben Santiago-Hudson
    Those Who Wish Me Dead by Michael Koryta, Charles Leavitt, and Taylor Sheridan
    SPOILER: The Father by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

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    Nicco
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    #1203569196

    What do you think about the choice of Scorsese to cast De Niro in the role of William Hale? I mean Hale was 45 years old in 1921 when he ordered Osage murders while DeNiro is 78. It seems so inaccurate.

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    _m4gnu5_
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    What do you think about the choice of Scorsese to cast De Niro in the role of William Hale? I mean Hale was 45 years old in 1921 when he ordered Osage murders while DeNiro is 78. It seems so inaccurate.

    Dude, just leave this thread for what its meant for. Films at the 2021 Oscars, not 2022.

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    JackO
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    lol Hamilton #2 movie on Metacritic. Lin Manuel Miranda EGOT.

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    OneAndOnly
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    Best Picture:

    • Dune
    • The French Dispatch
    • Hillbilly Elegy
    • Mank
    • News of the World
    • Nomadland
    • On the Rocks
    • Tenet
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • West Side Story
    • alt. The Father
    • alt. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Best Director:

    • Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
    • David Fincher, Mank
    • Christopher Nolan, Tenet
    • Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
    • Denis Villeneuve, Dune
    • alt. Paul Greengrass, News of the World
    • alt. Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks

    Best Actor:

    • Matt Damon, Stillwater
    • Tom Hanks, News of the World
    • Anthony Hopkins, The Father
    • Bill Murray, On the Rocks
    • Gary Oldman, Mank
    • alt. Micheal Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
    • alt. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Best Actress:

    • Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
    • Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Jennifer Hudson, Respect
    • Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water
    • Frances McDormand, Nomadland
    • alt. Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
    • alt. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Best Supporting Actor:

    • Yayha Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
    • Tom Pelphrey, Mank
    • alt. David Strathairn, Nomadland
    • alt. Leslie Odom Jr., Hamilton

    Best Supporting Actress:

    • Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
    • Olivia Colman, The Father
    • Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
    • Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
    • Amanda Seyfried, Mank
    • alt. Renee Elise Goldsberry, HamiltonI
    • alt. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune

    Best Adapted Screenplay:

    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • The Father
    • Hillbilly Elegy
    • News of the World
    • Nomadland
    • alt. Dune
    • alt. Next Goal Wins

    Best Original Screenplay:

    • The French Dispatch
    • Mank
    • On the Rocks
    • Soul
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • alt. Tenet
    • alt. Minari

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins- The Father
    FYC: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Male/Straight/BLM

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    fyras19
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    Best Picture:

    • Dune
    • The French Dispatch
    • Soul
    • Mank
    • News of the World
    • Nomadland
    • On the Rocks
    • Tenet
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • West Side Story
    • I’m thinking of ending things

    Best Director:

    • Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
    • David Fincher, Mank
    • Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
    • Denis Villeneuve, Dune
    • Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks

    Best Actor:

    • Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon c’mon
    • Delroy Lindo, Da 5 bloods
    • Anthony Hopkins, The Father
    • Bill Murray, On the Rocks
    • Gary Oldman, Mank

    Best Actress:

    • Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
    • Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • Kate Winslet, Ammonite
    • Carey Mulligan, Promising young woman
    • Frances McDormand, Nomadland

    Best Supporting Actor:

    • Yayha Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • David Strathairn, Nomadland
    • Tom Burke, Mank
    • Charles Dance, Mank

    Best Supporting Actress:

    • Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
    • Toni Collette, I’m thinking of ending things
    • Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
    • Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
    • Amanda Seyfried, Mank

    Best Adapted Screenplay:

    • Dune
    • The Father
    • I’m thinking of ending things
    • News of the World
    • Nomadland

    Best Original Screenplay:

    • The French Dispatch
    • Mank
    • On the Rocks
    • Soul
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

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    fefface
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    lol Hamilton #2 movie on Metacritic. Lin Manuel Miranda EGOT.

    LMM will actually achieve the even rarer PEGOT when he inevitably wins his Oscar (he is a shoe-in for an eventual Song win even if Hamilton goes nowhere) as he won a Pulitzer Prize for it a couple years ago.

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    AMG
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    Full Predictions

    Best Picture
    Ammonite
    Da 5 Bloods
    The French Dispatch
    Mank
    Minari
    News of the World
    On The Rocks
    Soul
    The Trial of the Chicago 7
    West Side Story

    Best Director
    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
    Sofia Coppola – On The Rocks
    David Fincher – Mank
    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Best Leading Actor
    Antony Hopkins – The Father
    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
    Bill Murray – On The Rocks
    Gary Oldman – Mank
    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Best Leading Actress
    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy
    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Jennifer Hudson – Respect
    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Best Supporting Actor
    David Alvarez – West Side Story
    Tom Burke – Mank
    Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Lakeith Stanfield – Untitled Fred Hampton Film
    Brian Tyree Henry – Red, White & Water

    Best Supporting Actress
    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
    Olivia Colman – The Father
    Jodie Comer – The Last Duel
    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Best Original Screenplay
    Ammonite
    Mank
    Minari
    On The Rocks
    Soul

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    The Father
    Hillbilly Elegy
    I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    News of the World
    Nomadland

    Best Cinematography
    The French Dispatch
    I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    Minari
    Tenet
    West Side Story

    Best Production Design
    Dune
    The French Dispatch
    Mank
    News of the World
    West Side Story

    Best Costume Design
    The French Dispatch
    The Last Duel
    Louis Wain
    Mulan
    West Side Story

    Best Make Up & Hairstyling
    Death on the Nile
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Mank
    No Time To Die
    Respect

    Best Editing
    Da 5 Bloods
    The French Dispatch
    Mank
    Minari
    Tenet

    Best Sound
    Dune
    No Time To Die
    Tenet
    West Side Story
    Wonder Woman 1984

    Best Visual Effects
    Black Widow
    Dune
    No Time To Die
    Tenet
    Wonder Woman 1984

    Best Original Score
    Da 5 Bloods
    The French Dispatch
    Mank
    Soul
    Tenet

    Best Original Song
    Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
    Miss Americana
    No Time To Die
    Over The Moon
    West Side Story

    Best Animated Feature
    Onward
    Over The Moon
    Robin Robin
    Soul
    Trolls World Tour

    Best International Film
    Another Round
    House of Hummingbird
    I Carry You With Me
    Summer of 85
    There Is No Evil

    Check out more of my thoughts on Twitter (@AMG_Review) and Instagram (amg_reviews)

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    fefface
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    Cordelia
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    #1203571085

    Maybe loving Hamilton is more of an American thing. Wasn’t a fan.

    Anyway, I wonder with the dates changed for the end of the Oscars eligibility period if film festivals will shuffle to match (if they even exist.)

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    diego
    Joined:
    Dec 10th, 2019
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    #1203571387

    July Predictions 

    Best Picture
    Ammonite
    Dune
    The French Dispatch
    Hillbilly Elegy
    Mank
    News of the World
    On the Rocks
    Tenet
    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Best Director
    Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
    Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
    David Fincher, Mank
    Christopher Nolan, Tenet
    Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Best Actor
    Anthony Hopkins, The Father
    Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
    Bill Murray, On the Rocks
    Gary Oldman, Mank
    Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon

    Best Actress
    Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
    Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 
    Jennifer Hudson, Respect
    Frances McDormand, Nomadland
    Kate Winslet, Ammonite

    Best Supporting Actor
    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Charles Dance, Mank 
    Tom Burke, Mank

    Best Supporting Actress
    Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy 
    Lily Collins, Mank
    Olivia Colman, The Father
    Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
    Amanda Seyfried, Mank

    Original Screenplay
    Ammonite
    The French Dispatch
    Mank
    Tenet
    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Adapted Screenplay
    Dune
    The Father
    Hillbilly Elegy
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    News of the World

    Some thoughts:
    1. I moved Lindo to lead because I get the feeling that critics are going to push him there and everyone’s gonna follow.
    2. Yes, I have 5 acting nominations predicted for Mank but that is just because of the lack of contenders in the supporting categories right now.

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