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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 6)

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    _m4gnu5_
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    Jan 20th, 2020
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    #1203571730

    The Child’s father is bipolar, no Phoenix’s character.

    Ah, that’s what it was. Thanks

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1203571959

    Best Picture
    Da 5 Bloods
    The Father
    Hillbilly Elegy
    Land
    Mank
    Minari
    Nomadland
    Red, White and Water
    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    (Ammonite, Don’t Look Up [if released this year], Dune, The French Dispatch, French Exit, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, One Night in Miami, On the Rocks, Tenet, Those Who Wish Me Dead)

    Best Director
    Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
    David Fincher, Mank
    Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
    Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

    (Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch, Sophia Coppola, On the Rocks, Regina King, One Night in Miami, Francis Lee, Ammonite, Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up, Lila Neugebauer, Red, White and Water, Christopher Nolan, Tenet, Taylor Sheridan, Those Who Wish Me Dead, Denis Villeneuve, Dune, Robin Wright, Land)

    Best Actress
    Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
    Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water
    Frances McDormand, Nomadland
    Robin Wright, Land

    (Jennifer Hudson, Respect, Angelina Jolie, Those Who Wish Me Dead, Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up, Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit, Kate Winslet, Ammonite)

    Best Actor
    Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Matt Damon, Stillwater
    Anthony Hopkins, The Father
    Bill Murray, On the Rocks
    Gary Oldman, Mank

    (Eli Goree, One Night in Miami, Tom Hanks, News of the World, John David Washington, Tenet)

    Best Supporting Actress
    Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
    Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    Olivia Colman, The Father
    Saoirse Ronan, The Ammonite
    Amanda Seyfried, Mank

    (Cate Blanchett, Don’t Look Up, Rebecca Ferguson, Dune, Meryl Streep, Let Them All Talk, Samira Wiley, Red, White and Water)

    Best Supporting Actor
    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Demián Bichir, Land
    Brian Tyree Henry, Red, White and Water
    Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
    Steven Yeun, Minari

    (Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Tom Burke, Mank, Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up, David Strathairn, Nomadland, Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

    Best Original Screenplay
    Land
    Mank
    Minari
    Nomadland
    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    (Ammonite, Da 5 Bloods, The French Dispatch, On the Rocks)

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    The Father
    Hillbilly Elegy
    I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    One Night in Miami
    Red, White and Water

    (Dune, French Exit, Those Who Wish Me Dead)

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    _m4gnu5_
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    #1203572109

    I am going to make an early prediction that The Trial of the Chicago 7 wins Best Picture. I think that even if Mank is the frontrunner, Chicago 7 can pull of an upset, just as we have seen in this category since Birdman triumphed over Boyhood.
    The recent Best Picture winners (Parasite, Green Book, The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight) are all tackling social issue (some better than others), and the filmsthat are deemed the frontrunners, which then don’t actually win (1917, Roma, Three Billboards, La La Land, The Revenant), are ones that tackle the human condition. From what we’ve heard about both Chicago 7 and Mank, I believe that Mank will be that human condition film, while Chicago 7 will be more socially relevant.
    I also think that Chicago 7 stands a very good chance to win both Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor, as it is written by Sorkin and seems to have a very strong ensemble. This make the Best Picture argument stronger as most Best Picture winners have another win above the line.
    I still have David Fincher as my frontrunner for director; he has his loss for The Social Network. Molly’y Game is the only thing to go off for Sorkin and that film served the screenplay more than anything else.
    The biggest flaw to this, I think, is that I have trouble with the idea that Best Picture and Best Director will be split between 2 Netflix films. For the big awards, they may want to focus on one movie (I’m assuming right now that will be Mank). So we will have to wait and see how that turns out.
    That’s my no guts, no glory pick. The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win Best Picture. I will stick with it for as long as it is logical. Would love to hear thoughts.

    (At the moment, I have Chicago 7 winning Picture, Supporting Actor for Sacha Baron Cohen and Original Screenplay. I have Mank winning Director and Production Design)

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    Nicco
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    #1203572233

    ,

    this is exactly what i’ve been saying since months until know. Sorkin is taking screenplay and picture. Fincher is the frontrunner for director and I hope they decide to reward him. He was incredible in The Social Network and I still can’t believe they gave the oscar to Hooper. ..

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    Jays
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    #1203572436

    First look at Michelle Pfeiffer and Lucas Hedges (and Tracy Letts) in French Exit

    https://twitter.com/sonyclassics/status/1280532699300499457?s=21

    Pfeiffer is serving. She’s coming!

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    Hoster1
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    #1203572625

    July:

    Picture:
    The Father (SPC)
    The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
    Mank (Netflix)
    Minari (A24)
    News of the World (Universal)
    Nomadland (Searchlight)
    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Paramount/Netflix?)

    Director:
    Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch
    David Fincher – Mank
    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
    Paul Greengrass – News of the World
    Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

    Actor:
    Tom Hanks – News of the World
    Anthony Hopkins – The Father
    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
    Gary Oldman – Mank
    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Actress:
    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy
    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
    Frances McDormand – Nomadland
    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Original Screenplay:
    The French Dispatch – Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Hugo Guinness & Roman Coppola
    Mank – Jack Fincher
    Minari – Lee Isaac Chung
    Soul – Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers
    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin

    Adapted Screenplay:
    The Father – Floran Zeller & Christopher Hampton
    Hillbilly Elegy – Vanessa Taylor
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ruben Santiago-Hudson
    News of the World – Luke Davies
    Nomadland – Chloé Zhao

    Supporting Actor:
    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Adam Driver – The Last Duel
    Tom Pelphrey – Mank

    Supporting Actress:
    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
    Olivia Colman – The Father
    Amanda Seyfried – Mank
    Helena Zengel – News of the World
    Yuh-jung Youn – Minari

    Cinematography:
    Dune – Greig Fraser
    The French Dispatch – Robert Yeoman
    Mank – Erik Messerschmidt
    News of the World – Dariusz Wolski
    Nomadland – Joshua James Richards

    Editing:
    Dune – Joe Walker
    The French Dispatch – Andrew Weisblum
    Mank – Kirk Baxter
    News of the World – William Goldenberg
    Nomadland – ?

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    BetteDavis
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    #1203572938

    July: Picture: The Father (SPC) The French Dispatch (Searchlight) Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) Mank (Netflix) Minari (A24) News of the World (Universal) Nomadland (Searchlight) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Paramount/Netflix?) Director: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch David Fincher – Mank Lee Isaac Chung – Minari Paul Greengrass – News of the World Chloé Zhao – Nomadland Actor: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Tom Hanks – News of the World Anthony Hopkins – The Father Gary Oldman – Mank Steven Yeun – Minari Actress: Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday Frances McDormand – Nomadland Kate Winslet – Ammonite Original Screenplay: The French Dispatch – Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Hugo Guinness & Roman Coppola Mank – Jack Fincher Minari – Lee Isaac Chung Soul – Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin Adapted Screenplay: The Father – Floran Zeller & Christopher Hampton Hillbilly Elegy – Vanessa Taylor Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ruben Santiago-Hudson News of the World – Luke Davies Nomadland – Chloé Zhao Supporting Actor: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7 Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 Adam Driver – The Last Duel Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods Tom Pelphrey – Mank Supporting Actress: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy Olivia Colman – The Father Amanda Seyfried – Mank Helena Zengel – News of the World Yuh-jung Youn – Minari Cinematography: Dune – Greig Fraser The French Dispatch – Robert Yeoman Mank – Erik Messerschmidt News of the World – Dariusz Wolski Nomadland – Joshua James Richards Editing: Dune – Joe Walker The French Dispatch – Andrew Weisblum Mank – Kirk Baxter News of the World – William Goldenberg Nomadland – ?

    These look good. Although I am hoping that On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, and The French Exit will show up. I’m also hoping that Charlie Kaufman gets recognized in Adapted Screenplay at least for I’m Thinking of Ending Things.

    I’m also not confident in Dune and Tenet. They don’t look like “Oscar” films and Nolan has a hit or miss track record with the Academy.  West Side Story seems like a doomed project from the start.  Da 5 Bloods is dead outside of Lindo.  I think you might be overpredicting Ma Rainey. I think Viola might be the ceiling for that one.

    I’m still curious if Candyman can pull off a Get Out.

    My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/Icecreamb

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    The One And Only of Gold Derby.
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    #1203572967

    I doubt Minari makes an impression. It needs a full festival run and with how weird this year is, there’s no way it keeps buzz all the way into February/March. Outside of screenplay, I doubt it will make an impression.

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    M: The Original
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    #1203572978

    First look at Michelle Pfeiffer and Lucas Hedges (and Tracy Letts) in French Exit

    https://twitter.com/sonyclassics/status/1280532699300499457?s=21

    Pfeiffer is serving. She’s coming!

    I’m so enthusiastic about this! She needs her overdue with Close.

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    BetteDavis
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    #1203572989

    I doubt Minari makes an impression. It needs a full festival run and with how weird this year is, there’s no way it keeps buzz all the way into February/March. Outside of screenplay, I doubt it will make an impression.

    I disagree. I think it can still make it. I think they’ll push it to later in the season (maybe November or December) and I think it will get a big push from critics.  I think it will show up in several categories.

    My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/Icecreamb

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    Jays
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    #1203573036

    Yeah, I have a lot of doubts about Minari too. If The Farewell couldn’t break through last year with all the buzz it had, I don’t think Minari will be able to this year. Box office is also key for such a small film, and if theaters do open in the fall I think Minari will get lost in the shuffle.

    Critics will have to be here for it in a big way. Yeun could possibly happen in supporting if that category stays as weak as it is now, though.

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    BetteDavis
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    #1203573203

    Yeah, I have a lot of doubts about Minari too. If The Farewell couldn’t break through last year with all the buzz it had, I don’t think Minari will be able to this year. Box office is also key for such a small film, and if theaters do open in the fall I think Minari will get lost in the shuffle. Critics will have to be here for it in a big way. Yeun could possibly happen in supporting if that category stays as weak as it is now, though.

    The Farewell would’ve broken through had A24 given it a proper Oscar friendly release date.  As I’ve heard from people that have seen it, Minari will be a massive player.

    My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/Icecreamb

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    M: The Original
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    #1203573256

    The Farewell would’ve broken through had A24 given it a proper Oscar friendly release date. As I’ve heard from people that have seen it, Minari will be a massive player.

    An early release date benefited The Farewell to even be in the conversation. But the Academy selected the one Asian title they would seriously consider across the board.

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    AMG
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    #1203573389

    I doubt Minari makes an impression. It needs a full festival run and with how weird this year is, there’s no way it keeps buzz all the way into February/March. Outside of screenplay, I doubt it will make an impression.

    I’d agree in principle but we’re six months into the year without any other raved, across the board contender because of the lack of festivals and cinema releases.

    The winter months will have way more blockbusters than normal, which could inhibit Minari, but can also make it standout more as something different to Mulan/Black Widow/Wonder Woman/No Time To Die etc. and help it standout as an awards contender.

    The past few years it’s been asked if a longer awards season would see more love for smaller films (acting nods for Parasite/a massive sweep for Moonlight or Roma).

    Minari could explode as the small film that would normally be under-appreciated, but now has more chance to breathe and build real momentum.

    Check out more of my thoughts on Twitter (@AMG_Review) and Instagram (amg_reviews)

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    Jays
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    #1203573488

    The Farewell would’ve broken through had A24 given it a proper Oscar friendly release date. As I’ve heard from people that have seen it, Minari will be a massive player.

    Nope. The Farewell got as far as it did because of its release date. It wouldn’t have done as well at the BO if it was released in the fall with every other awards movie. The summer release date allowed it to break out. Minari could be fantastic but without good BO and fall fests to build buzz, it might very well be a non-starter.

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