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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 8)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203690653

    I trust they’re doing things as well as they can. The key is keeping the air fresh.

    Clean air, masks, regular sanitation, and spaced out, reduced seating are all important. The good thing is that AMC and the other chains seem vommited to all 4 of those. I will say I was nervous to see Tenet, since sitting in an enclosed space with dozens of other people for 3 hours isn’t the best way to avoid the virus, but it’s been nearly a week since then and I feel perfectly fine now, so that’s encouraging.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Kelvin
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    #1203690674

    20M$ domestically is a terrible result for Tenet let’s not switch the narratives lol. And with the B cinema score, I guess it’s safe to say the public is not here for the film.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203690688

    20M$ domestically is a terrible result for Tenet let’s not switch the narratives lol. And with the B cinema score, I guess it’s safe to say the public is not here for the film.

    Not with half of the biggest theatrocal markets in the US closed. It’s likely that eith those markets Tenet would have made about as much as Interstellar and Dunkirk did opening weeknd.

    The jury’s still out on whether it’s profitable, but Tenet will do well enough to sustain theaters, which is what I said in the last post. But of course, that could be a bad thing, if theaters increase COVID cases.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    wolfali
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    #1203690787

    You did, lol. I would say ‘will sweep’ is calling her a lock.

    I was joking about ‘will sweep’.

    I think if she gets a good distributor she’s in the conversation and is a lock at the Spirit awards and BAFTA.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    fefface
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    #1203690799

    I was joking about ‘will sweep’. I think if she gets a good distributor she’s in the conversation and is a lock at the Spirit awards and BAFTA.

    And that’s fine if you were joking but it clearly didn’t come across given that multiple people took you seriously, so maybe lay off on the sarcastic ‘lols’?

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    wolfali
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    This. At best she’ll be a Venice thing. She’s a nobody to begin with that made no dent outside of a lone Emmy nom and the BAFTAs for The Crown in an Oscar season where it’s going to be harder to access films. And like you said, she needs a distributor that needs to put the film at the top of their priority and I can’t think of any that would do so at the moment. Sony: Pfeiffer and The Father, A24: Minari, C’mon C’mon, JLaw, Netflix: Mank, HE and Davis, Neon: Kate, Amazon: One Night in Miami, Searchlight: Nomadland/Frances. I guess Focus as well but they also have Land and that could go either way and they probably won’t make a dent without box office.

    Are you saying the fact Kirby hasn’t been in any film or show that was considered awards worthy outside The Crown is going to hurt her chances lol?

    I’m guessing you weren’t predicting Yalitza Aparicio then or that Amy Adams would get a nomination for Junebug lol? Or that virtually unknown Marion Cottilard would win? Or that one time Emmy winner Rami Malek would win?

    The delusion.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Hayden
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    #1203690839

    I’m surprised Kirby being nominated is dividing people. At this point she looks like a frontrunner (to me anyway).

    Looking forward to the odds opening tomorrow. I’m going to toss these predictions on the board, but I’m well aware they’ll most likely be wrong

    Picture— The Trial of The Chicago 7 or The French Dispatch

    Director— Fincher (Mank)

    Actor— Hopkins (The Father) or Kaluuya (Judas)

    Actress— Kirby (Pieces of A Woman) or somebody who’s already won

    S. Actor— Boseman (Ma Rainey) or Baron Cohen (Chicago 7)

    S. Actress— Close (Hillbilly Elegy) or Ronan (Ammonite)

    A. Screenplay— The Father

    O. Screenplay— The Trial of The Chicago 7

    Song— Billie Eilish

    Score— Desplat (The French Dispatch) or maybe Mank

    With the possibility of The French Dispatch for director/ screenplay, depending on reception.

    This is all dependent on the fact these films will actually come out, be released, etc etc…

    I also wasn’t too hot on Da 5 Bloods, so I’m having a hard time seeing it in serious contention. I suppose Lindo has a chance at (Lead?) actor at this point though.

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    Jays
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    #1203690845

    I love Kirby. I think she’s extremely talented, but I doubt she’s happening for Pieces of a Woman. It sounds like the film itself is a tough sell and the reviews don’t sound as enthusiastic for the film as a whole as they do for Kirby’s performance which could hurt her chances for a variety of reasons. The film also doesn’t have a distributor lol, so we should probably hold off on the conversation until we get confirmation that it’s even coming out this year.

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    Praise the Lourd
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    #1203690889

    When has lack of passion for a film ever hurt someone’s chances at being nominated for best actress? May I remind you Renée Zellweger won that award this year for Judy?

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1203690895

    Are you saying the fact Kirby hasn’t been in any film or show that was considered awards worthy outside The Crown is going to hurt her chances lol? I’m guessing you weren’t predicting Yalitza Aparicio then or that Amy Adams would get a nomination for Junebug lol? Or that virtually unknown Marion Cottilard would win? Or that one time Emmy winner Rami Malek would win? The delusion.

    Yalitza was in the BP frontrunner. Marion was literally getting Cesar award nominations starting in the 90s and had built up a career already as a young French starlet. A Piece of a Woman isn’t having as strong of reviews as Junebug with an 80 MC for the latter and a 6.something average on RT for the former. Malek won for the hottest and one of the most acclaimed shows of the season that year, and had already booked plenty of supporting roles in GP-friendly movies by that point. You are severely the delusional one if you think Kirby is going to have as good as a start-up this season as any of them with her already reviewed as an okay movie and win the Oscar. Anyways.

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    wolfali
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    #1203690915

    Hmm the same Vanessa Kirby who has booked various supporting roles in big blockbuster hits like Charlize Theron did pre Monster?

    Sure Kirby can miss but she could easily very easily win à la Berry and Theron or get nominated like Robbie did along with her big name supporting co-star whilst her film more or less missed everywhere else above the line.

    Also Pieces of a Woman has 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. Junebug had 86%.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Jays
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    #1203690923

    When has lack of passion for a film ever hurt someone’s chances at being nominated for best actress? May I remind you Renée Zellweger won that award this year for Judy?

    Zellweger was playing Judy Garland lmao. Not to mention, Zellweger was a well known actress that had a comeback narrative behind her. No where near the same situation that could Kirby could possibly face.

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    wolfali
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    #1203690932

    Zellweger was playing Judy Garland lmao. Not to mention, Zellweger was a well known actress that had a comeback narrative behind her. No where near the same situation that could Kirby could possibly face.

    Well being in a show that got  snubbed for Picture didn’t hurt Charlie Theron for the win for Monster or Margot Robbie for the nomination for I, Tonya.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Jays
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    Well being in a show that got snubbed for Picture didn’t hurt Charlie Theron for the win for Monster or Margot Robbie for the nomination for I, Tonya.

    Theron and Robbie also played real life people and went through an extreme transformation. It’s just not the same as Kirby in Pieces of a Woman.

    Like I said before, I love Kirby. I hope she happens, but people declaring her a possible winner or even nominee already is a bit premature considering the film doesn’t even have a distributor.

     

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1203690964

    Hmm the same Vanessa Kirby who has booked various supporting roles in big blockbuster hits like Charlize Theron did pre Monster? Sure Kirby can miss but she could easily very easily win à la Berry and Theron or get nominated like Robbie did along with her big name supporting co-star whilst her film more or less missed everywhere else above the line. Also Pieces of a Woman has 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. Junebug had 86%.

    Two-second speaking roles in films that are even more no1curr than Malek’s films is not notable in the slightest. Charlize and Margot also gave transformative performances and were the hottest it-girls at the moment, Kirby is not. Theron also won the Globe and SAG (while her BAFTA year was out of her oscar contention year), none of which is gonna happen for Kirby. Halle also won SAG (again not gonna happen for Kirby). And if you knew how acclaim works, for movies, MC is more important and when it comes to RT average is as well. Which if you looked you would see that POAW is 6.something while Junebug is 7.48. It is pure delusion to compare Kirby with either charlize, margot, or halle when they’re all the bigger stars than Kirby at the time of their noms and wins.

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