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2021 Oscar Predictions (Part 9)

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    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
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    #1203699758

    Why is Amy in lead? And, more importantly, why is anyone predicting her in lead? Hillbilly Elegy is based on a memoir by J.D. Vance. Shouldn’t Gabriel Basso, who is playing J.D. Vance, be the lead? And, from what I’ve read and heard – by some even on past threads, doesn’t Glenn have the bigger role? Also, I saw someone say they wouldn’t campaign Amy in Supporting so as not to interfere with Close, but, how would that interfere? Woody didn’t interfere with Sam.

    Emmys FYC:

    Comedy Series - Abbott Elementary, Atlanta, The Great, Reservation Dogs, What We Do in the Shadows

    Drama Series - Pachinko, Severance, Yellowjackets

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    wolfali
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    #1203699760

    Guys… Fiona Shaw is the best part! AAAAAAAAA

    Lol maybe if she wins the Emmy she’ll continue the Best S. Actress trend here. Jk.

    Whilst these reviews don’t look good I wouldn’t rule it out as an Oscar contender unless it gets panned reviews (which not even this review seems to be although it is quite negative). After all it has two Oscar baity leads and didn’t the film that won the Golden Lion get 68% on Rotten Tomatoes and 59% on Metacritic win an acting award last year and get nominated for BP and didn’t another film that premiered at TIFF get 58% on Metacritic and won Best Adapted Screenplay?

    What I would say is if the response to Winslet hasn’t met up to the hype that whilst she probably will get a nomination she won’t be winning. Arise Viola Davis and Frances McDormand (who I don’t know why people think she won’t win again after winning so recently when that’s what Hillary Swank, Christoph Waltz and Mahershala Ali did)!

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    gabspss
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    #1203699776

    NEXT BEST PICTURE: 7/10

    AMMONITE is perfectly named after the signature fossil that starts from a small center only to widen the farther out it gets. Winslet and Ronan do superb work navigating the widening of their characters’ worlds.

    GUARDIAN: 4/5

    VARIETY: However Committed, Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan Can’t Spark Sodden Romance

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    Stank83
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    Mar 8th, 2020
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    #1203699780

    Lots of negative reviews for Ammonite!!
    I don’t think it will go far awards season wise.

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    montana82
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    Sep 14th, 2011
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    #1203699782

    I find it interesting that Pete Hammond mentions that he saw a Best Actress contender this week that could blow the top off the race this fall.

    Oscars: Fall Film Fest Circuit Aims To Promote Early Contenders McDormand, Winslet, Hopkins, King, And More – But Is It Just Too Damn Early?

    It’s not McDormand, Kirby, Winslet, Watts, or Colman because they or their films are all mentioned already in his article.

    That would leave Viola, Michelle, Amy (or Glenn if she’s lead), JHud, or Andra. I know Michelle’s film gets seen in the fall at NY Film Festival. Not sure when the others will be first seen.

    "Here's a wonderfully b*tchy post from Montana82...." - Tom O'Neill Emmy Prediction Slugfest August 1st, 2019

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    wolfali
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    #1203699785

    Lots of negative reviews for Ammonite. I don’t think it will go far awards season wise.

    NEXT BEST PICTURE: 7/10 AMMONITE is perfectly named after the signature fossil that starts from a small center only to widen the farther out it gets. Winslet and Ronan do superb work navigating the widening of their characters’ worlds. GUARDIAN: 4/5

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1203699787

    Lol maybe if she wins the Emmy she’ll continue the Best S. Actress trend here. Jk. Whilst these reviews don’t look good I wouldn’t rule it out as an Oscar contender unless it gets panned reviews (which not even this review seems to be although it is quite negative). After all it has two Oscar baity leads and didn’t the film that won the Golden Lion get 68% on Rotten Tomatoes and 59% on Metacritic win an acting award last year and get nominated for BP and didn’t another film that premiered at TIFF get 58% on Metacritic and won Best Adapted Screenplay? What I would say is if the response to Winslet hasn’t met up to the hype that whilst she probably will get a nomination she won’t be winning. Arise Viola Davis and Frances McDormand (who I don’t know why people think she won’t win again after winning so recently when that’s what Hillary Swank, Christoph Waltz and Mahershala Ali did)!

    Swank, Waltz and Ali were on their second wins. How often does pure quality take you to an Oscar win? And is McDormand truly undeniable?

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    Stank83
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    #1203699789

    Check Variety and Indiewire

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    diego
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    Dec 10th, 2019
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    #1203699791

    I’m seeing a lot of mixed reviews. Needless to say but this doesn’t stand a chance against Nomadland for the People’s Choice Award.

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    Hayden
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    Nov 11th, 2018
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    #1203699798

    It’s not McDormand, Kirby, Winslet, Watts, or Colman because they or their films are all mentioned already in his article. That would leave Viola, Michelle, Amy (or Glenn if she’s lead), JHud, or Andra.

     

    Any chance it’s Sophia Loren?

    I feel like it’s Sophia Loren.

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    diego
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    Dec 10th, 2019
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    #1203699800

    I still think Saoirse and Kate can get in, but they are anything but locked. Also seeing that there’s barely any music so I’m taking that off from my predictions.

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    diego
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    #1203699802

    Any chance it’s Sophia Loren? I feel like it’s Sophia Loren.

    I would die from joy.

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    wolfali
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    #1203699804

    Check Variety and Indiewire

    Just because some of the reviews are negative it doesn’t mean it’s over in the Oscars race. Some of them (as I quoted above have been praising the film).

    I’m not rooting for this film at all (I know you definitely aren’t) but just because it’s got mixed reviews it doesn’t mean it won’t go and get nominations above the line at the Oscars (*coughs* Joker, Jojo Rabbit *coughs*). So I think it’s delusional to rule it out completely for now.

    Needless to say Kate is not winning.

    I find it interesting that Pete Hammond mentions that he saw a Best Actress contender this week that could blow the top off the race this fall. https://deadline.com/2020/09/oscars-film-festivals-early-contenders-1234575644/ It’s not McDormand, Kirby, Winslet, Watts, or Colman because they or their films are all mentioned already in his article. That would leave Viola, Michelle, Amy (or Glenn if she’s lead), JHud, or Andra. I know Michelle’s film gets seen in the fall at NY Film Festival. Not sure when the others will be first seen.

    Lol he literally called Kirby and Burstyn locks and said there is a bidding war going on for it. Am I delusional now for saying Kirby has a chance or that the film would get a good distributor?

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    gabspss
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    #1203699806

    Mixed responses for Ammonite. Definetely not a BP contender.

    Nomadland and One Night in Miami rises.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    Luca Giliberti
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1203699810

    Now Queen V. can rise to #1 in our odds like she should.

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