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2021 Oscar Predictions Thread: Screenplay (Original + Adapted)

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    Cordelia
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    I want to host an Oscars thread for Screenplay discussion since I think it’s a forward-thinking branch of the Academy that often makes better calls than Best Picture. That films like Her, Get Out, BlackKklansman, and Jojo Rabbit are capable of winning big awards here says a lot about how different a culture it holds. Inside Out can rub shoulders with Ex Machina. If Beale Street Could Talk and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs can be recognised in the same category. It’s delightfully chaotic.

    I’m going to use the OP to make a longlist, if I miss anything or a film is not competing, let me know and I’ll elaborate. This longlist is based on Awards Watch’s February list, so some information is inherently outdated.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    • Ammonite (Neon)
      Annette (Amazon)
      Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar (Lionsgate)
      C’mon C’mon (A24)
      Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
      Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (20th Century)
      The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
      Herself (Amazon)
      I’m Your Woman (Amazon)
      Kajillionaire (A24)
      Land (Focus Features)
      Last Night in Soho (Focus Features)
      Mank (Netflix)
      Minari (A24)
      Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
      On the Rocks (A24/Apple+)
      Respect (MGM)
      The Roads Not Taken (Bleecker Street)
      Soul (Disney/Pixar)
      Stillwater (Focus Features)
      Tenet (Warner Bros)
      Those Who Wish Me Dead (Warner Bros)
      The Trial of the Chicago 7 (NETFLIX)
      The King of Staten Island (Paramount)
      Untitled David O. Russell Project aka Amsterdam (20th Century)
      Untitled Fred Hampton Film aka Jesus was my Homeboy (Warner Bros)
      Untitled Lila Neugebauer aka Red, White, Water (A24)

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    • Dune (Warner Bros)
      The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)
      The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
      French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
      The Green Knight (A24)
      Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
      The Humans (A24)
      I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
      The Last Duel (20th Century)
      The Life Ahead (Netflix)
      Macbeth (A24)
      Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
      The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
      News of the World (Universal)
      Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)
      Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
      Nomadland (Searchlight)
      Prisoner 760 (STX Entertainment)
      The Prom (Netflix)
      Untitled Nora Fingscheidt Project (Netflix)
      West Side Story (20th Century)
      The White Tiger (Netflix)
      Wild Mountain Thyme (Bleecker Street)
    • This topic was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by Cordelia.
    • This topic was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by Cordelia.
    • This topic was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by Cordelia.
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    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite

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    John Berchmans
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    Several of the contenders you mentioned above have been delayed well past the eligibility period.

    Right now I think The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the most likely to win Best Original Screenplay. Aaron Sorkin is one of the most beloved screenwriters working today, and considering his last win was 10 years ago I think most people will agree he’s overdue for a second one. Plus it’s one of the biggest contenders for Best Picture (assuming it doesn’t get bought up by Netflix). I have no idea what wins Adapted now: I was originally predicting West Side Story, but that movie could be problematic if they keep Ansel Elgort, or it could be delayed.

    Best Original Screenplay

    • The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • Da Five Bloods
    • The French Dispatch
    • Mank
    • Tenet

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    • The Father
    • Hillbilly Elegy
    • News of the World
    • Next Goal Wins
    • West Side Story

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    MrOceanBlueEyes
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    Original Screenplay 

    • Tenet
    • Da 5 Bloods
    • The French Dispatch
    • Mank
    • On the Rocks/Soul/The Trial of the Chicago Seven

    Adapted Screenplay

    • Dune
    • The Father
    • West Side Story
    • Hillbilly Elegy
    • I’m Thinking of Ending Things/News of the World

    As far as I know Blonde, the PTA movie and In the Heights are 2021 releases, Nighmare Alley and Amsterdam probably too since they’ve yet to finish filming and announce a release date

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    The One And Only of Gold Derby.
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    Feeling pretty good about this.

    Original Screenplay:

    • The French Dispatch
    • Mank
    • On the Rocks
    • Tenet
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7
    • alt. Soul

    Adapted Screenplay:

    • Dune
    • The Father
    • Hillbilly Elegy
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • News of the World
    • alt. Next Goal Wins
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    Stank83
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    Next Goal Wins too is a 2021 release that won’t be eligible for this year.

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    BetteDavis
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    Da 5 Bloods is definitely not getting nominated.

    My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/Icecreamb

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    The One And Only of Gold Derby.
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    Next Goal Wins too is a 2021 release that won’t be eligible for this year.

    They were planning for an early 21’ release and with the eligibility extended, there’s a good chance they release in ~February.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    Da 5 Bloods is definitely not getting nominated.

    Why not?

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    BetteDavis
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    Why not?

    The entirety of Goldderby is ignoring the fact that the movie has received poor audience ratings.  Da 5 Bloods would have to keep up it’s momentum (which it doesn’t even have to begin with) for nearly a whole year while also not being Netflix’s main push.

    Da 5 Bloods is DOA except for Delroy Lindo and even that depends on what category they put him in.

    The critics can say whatever they want about a film, the audience score is really what’s important. The critics don’t vote for the Oscars.  And Da 5 Bloods has received lukewarm audience ratings, which isn’t enough to carry through till next Spring.

    It’s also a messy sh*tshow of a script, from a subjective perspective.

    My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/Icecreamb

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    arodfan
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    That’s just people review bombing the site. Don’t listen to trolls.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    That’s just people review bombing the site. Don’t listen to trolls.

    I’ll admit I’m surprised by the IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes audience score for Da 5 Bloods. Like, 57%?

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    _m4gnu5_
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    Consider Another Round in original screenplay, a film like that has potential to get actor and screenplay noms, and a win in international feature.

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    BetteDavis
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    That’s just people review bombing the site. Don’t listen to trolls.

    I’m sure some are trolls, but take a look at the legit audience reviews.  They’re pretty let down by the execution of the film, as was I.  There just isn’t enough positive reviews to carry it till Spring 2021.

    My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/Icecreamb

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    The One And Only of Gold Derby.
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    It doesn’t help the Netflix, which already had 3 films prioritized before Da 5 Bloods, just bought TTOTC7, which will definitely be ahead of D5B.

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    markwahlbird
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    Here’s my set of tiered longlists. Original Screenplay is MUCH more stacked than Adapted this year, just like last year.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

    • Da 5 Bloods
    • The French Dispatch
    • Mank
    • On the Rocks
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Runners-Up:

    • Ammonite
    • C’mon C’mon
    • Minari
    • Red, White, and Water
    • Tenet

    Next Up:

    • All Day and a Night
    • Breaking News in Yuba County
    • Irresistible
    • Kajillionaire
    • The King of Staten Island
    • Land
    • Louis Wain
    • Never Rarely Sometimes Always
    • Onward
    • Respect
    • Soul
    • Stillwater

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

    • The Father
    • Hillbilly Elegy
    • I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    • News of the World

    Runners-Up:

    • Dune
    • Next Goal Wins
    • Passing
    • The Personal History of David Copperfield
    • West Side Story

    Next Up:

    • After Yang
    • Benedetta
    • Blithe Spirit
    • Concrete Cowboys
    • Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
    • The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    • First Cow
    • French Exit
    • The Humans
    • Prisoner 760
    • Those Who Wish Me Dead
    • Zola
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