2021 Oscar Predictions Thread: Screenplay (Original + Adapted)

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 18 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

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I want to host an Oscars thread for Screenplay discussion since I think it’s a forward-thinking branch of the Academy that often makes better calls than Best Picture. That films like Her, Get Out, BlackKklansman, and Jojo Rabbit are capable of winning big awards here says a lot about how different a culture it holds. Inside Out can rub shoulders with Ex Machina. If Beale Street Could Talk and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs can be recognised in the same category. It’s delightfully chaotic.

I’m going to use the OP to make a longlist, if I miss anything or a film is not competing, let me know and I’ll elaborate. This longlist is based on Awards Watch’s February list, so some information is inherently outdated.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Ammonite (Neon)
  Annette (Amazon)
  Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar (Lionsgate)
  C’mon C’mon (A24)
  Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
  Everybody’s Talking About Jamie (20th Century)
  The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
  Herself (Amazon)
  I’m Your Woman (Amazon)
  Kajillionaire (A24)
  Land (Focus Features)
  Last Night in Soho (Focus Features)
  Mank (Netflix)
  Minari (A24)
  Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
  On the Rocks (A24/Apple+)
  Respect (MGM)
  The Roads Not Taken (Bleecker Street)
  Soul (Disney/Pixar)
  Stillwater (Focus Features)
  Tenet (Warner Bros)
  Those Who Wish Me Dead (Warner Bros)
  The Trial of the Chicago 7 (NETFLIX)
  The King of Staten Island (Paramount)
  Untitled David O. Russell Project aka Amsterdam (20th Century)
  Untitled Fred Hampton Film aka Jesus was my Homeboy (Warner Bros)
  Untitled Lila Neugebauer aka Red, White, Water (A24)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Dune (Warner Bros)
  The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)
  The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
  French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
  The Green Knight (A24)
  Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
  The Humans (A24)
  I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix)
  The Last Duel (20th Century)
  The Life Ahead (Netflix)
  Macbeth (A24)
  Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
  The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
  News of the World (Universal)
  Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)
  Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
  Nomadland (Searchlight)
  Prisoner 760 (STX Entertainment)
  The Prom (Netflix)
  Untitled Nora Fingscheidt Project (Netflix)
  West Side Story (20th Century)
  The White Tiger (Netflix)
  Wild Mountain Thyme (Bleecker Street)

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

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[John Berchmans Joined: Jan 22nd, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 3193 View Predictions]

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Several of the contenders you mentioned above have been delayed well past the eligibility period.

Right now I think The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the most likely to win Best Original Screenplay. Aaron Sorkin is one of the most beloved screenwriters working today, and considering his last win was 10 years ago I think most people will agree he’s overdue for a second one. Plus it’s one of the biggest contenders for Best Picture (assuming it doesn’t get bought up by Netflix). I have no idea what wins Adapted now: I was originally predicting West Side Story, but that movie could be problematic if they keep Ansel Elgort, or it could be delayed.

Best Original Screenplay

• The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Da Five Bloods
• The French Dispatch
• Mank
• Tenet

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Father
• Hillbilly Elegy
• News of the World
• Next Goal Wins
• West Side Story

I'm back bitches.

#EverythingEverywhereSweep

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[MrOceanBlueEyes Joined: Dec 28th, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1203545329

Original Screenplay 

• Tenet
• Da 5 Bloods
• The French Dispatch
• Mank
• On the Rocks/Soul/The Trial of the Chicago Seven

Adapted Screenplay

• Dune
• The Father
• West Side Story
• Hillbilly Elegy
• I’m Thinking of Ending Things/News of the World

As far as I know Blonde, the PTA movie and In the Heights are 2021 releases, Nighmare Alley and Amsterdam probably too since they’ve yet to finish filming and announce a release date

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[OneAndOnly Joined: Mar 21st, 2017 Topics: 12 Posts: 1177 View Predictions]

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Feeling pretty good about this.

Original Screenplay:

• The French Dispatch
• Mank
• On the Rocks
• Tenet
• The Trial of the Chicago 7
• alt. Soul

Adapted Screenplay:

• Dune
• The Father
• Hillbilly Elegy
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• News of the World
• alt. Next Goal Wins

Have a great day if you see this!

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[Stank83 Joined: Mar 8th, 2020 Topics: 105 Posts: 2124 View Predictions]

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Next Goal Wins too is a 2021 release that won’t be eligible for this year.

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[OneAndOnly Joined: Mar 21st, 2017 Topics: 12 Posts: 1177 View Predictions]

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Stank83 wrote:

Next Goal Wins too is a 2021 release that won’t be eligible for this year.

They were planning for an early 21’ release and with the eligibility extended, there’s a good chance they release in ~February.

Have a great day if you see this!

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[Gabe Guarin Joined: Feb 23rd, 2017 Topics: 9 Posts: 1201 View Predictions]

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Da 5 Bloods is definitely not getting nominated.

Why not?

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[arodfan Joined: Mar 25th, 2020 Topics: 7 Posts: 707 View Predictions]

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That’s just people review bombing the site. Don’t listen to trolls.

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[Gabe Guarin Joined: Feb 23rd, 2017 Topics: 9 Posts: 1201 View Predictions]

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arodfan wrote:

That’s just people review bombing the site. Don’t listen to trolls.

I’ll admit I’m surprised by the IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes audience score for Da 5 Bloods. Like, 57%?

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[Magnus Joined: Jan 20th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 520 View Predictions]

#1203545644

Consider Another Round in original screenplay, a film like that has potential to get actor and screenplay noms, and a win in international feature.

FYC
Picture: Dune
Director: Jane Campion
Actress: Kristen Stewart
Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
Sup. Actress: Kirsten Dunst
Sup. Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Original: The Worst Person in the World
Adapted: The Power of the Dog
Cinematography/Editing/Score/Production Design/Sound: Dune
Costumes: Cruella
Animated/Doc: Flee
International Feature: The Worst Person in the World

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[OneAndOnly Joined: Mar 21st, 2017 Topics: 12 Posts: 1177 View Predictions]

#1203545723

It doesn’t help the Netflix, which already had 3 films prioritized before Da 5 Bloods, just bought TTOTC7, which will definitely be ahead of D5B.

Have a great day if you see this!

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[markwahlbird Joined: Feb 15th, 2019 Topics: 13 Posts: 95 View Predictions]

#1203545826

Here’s my set of tiered longlists. Original Screenplay is MUCH more stacked than Adapted this year, just like last year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

• Da 5 Bloods
• The French Dispatch
• Mank
• On the Rocks
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

Runners-Up:

• Ammonite
• C’mon C’mon
• Minari
• Red, White, and Water
• Tenet

Next Up:

• All Day and a Night
• Breaking News in Yuba County
• Irresistible
• Kajillionaire
• The King of Staten Island
• Land
• Louis Wain
• Never Rarely Sometimes Always
• Onward
• Respect
• Soul
• Stillwater

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

• The Father
• Hillbilly Elegy
• I’m Thinking of Ending Things
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• News of the World

Runners-Up:

• Dune
• Next Goal Wins
• Passing
• The Personal History of David Copperfield
• West Side Story

Next Up:

• After Yang
• Benedetta
• Blithe Spirit
• Concrete Cowboys
• Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
• The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• First Cow
• French Exit
• The Humans
• Prisoner 760
• Those Who Wish Me Dead
• Zola

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[Stank83 Joined: Mar 8th, 2020 Topics: 105 Posts: 2124 View Predictions]

#1203545944

Isn’t Ammonite getting saved for next season?

You know something? Or you’re just speculating?

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 1 Posts: 1417 View Predictions]

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This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.

[diego Joined: Dec 10th, 2019 Topics: 12 Posts: 1585 View Predictions]

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I’m doing it alphabetically

Original Screenplay:
• Ammonite
• The French Dispatch
• Mank
• Tenet
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

Next in line
• C’mon C’mon
• Da 5 Bloods
• Minari
• On the Rocks
• Soul

Adapted Screenplay: 
• Dune
• The Father
• Hillbilly Elegy
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• News of the World

Next in line
• French Exit
• I’m Thinking of Ending Things
• Next Goal Wins (would be higher if I was sure it’s coming out)
• Nomadland
• West Side Story

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