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2023 Original song contenders

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    korthicke
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    #1205005000

    I agree. But, Oscar songs do not necessarily need commercial box office appeal. Often they go hand in hand, but not always. ONly about half of the winning songs came from popular films. And they also don’t need to chart well. No time To Die was a box office smash but the song didn’t even hit #1. In 2021, Judas and the Black Messiah only brought in 7 million and the song “Fight for You” I had never heard before. Often Oscar songs don’t chart well at all. In the past 20 years, only 7 winners have even charted at all on the BB Hot 100. And only 3 hit #1 (Shallow, Let it Go, Skyfall). obviously those songs were game changers. But, that doesn’t happen but once every 7 years.

    shallow was #1… let it go was #5 and skyfall was #6 … only two songs this century were #1 and won best original song

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    Nathan Rand
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    #1205005009

    As of now “Hold My Hand” has most going for it and is the undeniable frontrunner and is checking off the most boxes…

    • Featured in a major blockbuster grossing 1.1B+
    • Featured in a movie that is almost locked for at least one other  Oscar nomination like Sound and possibly others like Cinematography, Visual Effects and Score.
    • Written by a prior BOS winner
    • Used throughout the film and score
    • Sequel to a movie with already one BOS under their belt
    • Has the typical “sound” the academy goes for
    • Charted on the Billboard Hot 100 (and will probably for about 2.5 months which is not too bad for a soundtrack single)
    • Already passed 100m total streams combined on Spotify and Youtube clearly showing SOME popularity among the general public.
    • Still gaining roughing 1M daily plays on Spotify
    • Oscar Campaign push will come from experienced studio with Paramount

    Again, not even saying that it’s gonna end up winning but it’s definitely leading the pack in terms of songs already been released and I would think that it’s almost undeniable.

     

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    ejaru1810
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    #1205005024

    Out of all the song that have been released, Gaga is the frontrunner. Her win depends on the competition coming from Best Picture contenders assuming Top Gun is not nominated and if some song becomes popular enough to be undeniable by the end of the year.

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    Townhouse120790
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    #1205005061

    Hold My Hand- Top Gun Maverick

    Carolina- Where The Crawdad Sings

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    Predix
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    #1205005074

    Personally, I think Top Gun has a better shot in Score/Soundtrack than in Best Original Song. But the film itself will be nominated everywhere. Best Picture, etc. Maybe Sound and Editing win a lot.

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    cannastop
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    #1205005106

    I just want “Nobody Like U” to get nominated so it can be performed at the ceremony.

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    Nathan Rand
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    #1205005125

    I do like “Nobody But U”, I think it’s win would be if it got nominated though, which I mean, right now you could argue that it has a good chance. “Turning Red” might be Pixar’s big push after “Lightyear” didn’t do well critically and underperformed commercially.

    But I don’t see it winning, it’s a straight BOY BAND POP SONG. I love it for what it is and find it clever but I don’t see the academy awarding that song, and if they were gonna give Billie a second Oscar literally the year after winning her first it would need to be for way more impactful work.

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    xohours
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    #1205005142

    TG’s biggest hurdle in Score is that if voters will vote for a soundtrack containing more than half of the original theme vs a new original song that’s continuously used throughout the film. also the fact we’re halfway done w the year & there’s no other major contenders for BOS and more than likely to have a prominent player come fall for Score than song (unless another LIG, Shallow, Bruno emerges)

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1205005296

    In the past 20 years, only 7 winners have even charted at all on the BB Hot 100. And only 3 hit #1 (Shallow, Let it Go, Skyfall). obviously those songs were game changers. But, that doesn’t happen but once every 7 years.

    Let It Go and Skyfall didn’t go #1 on the Hot, Let It Go peaked #16 prior to the Oscars, #9 after it one and legged it to #5 after AC Radio got a hold of it. Skyfall peaked at #8 during the film’s release in October 2012.

    Three Oscar nominated tracks peaked at #1 this century, 2 of them after they got nominated/won.

    • Lose Yourself
    • Happy
    • Shallow

    Writings on the Wall & No Time to Die did go #1 in Bond’s native UK though (Skyfall peaked at #2).

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    FEFFO
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    #1205005386

    As a huge Taylor Swift fan I got disappointed with Carolina, sounds weak and not even on the Folklore level. She should have just written a country song with some 80s pop beats for D.O.R’s Amsterdam and I would have no doubts with her getting nominated.

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    Nathan Rand
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    #1205005389

    I actually didn’t mind Carolina but it definitely SOUNDED like a folklore filler track, my biggest issue though is that I never feel like the track gets to the “next level” that I desired.

    But I have actually streamed the song a couple of times and I’m curious to see how much it’s featured in the film! The issue with WTCS as others have stated is I doubt that it will be competing in any other category other than BOS and that will definitely hurt Taylors chances

    She definitely would’ve had a better shot with crating an original song for “Amsterdam” …..are we sure she didn’t? Has it been confirmed?

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    FEFFO
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    #1205005538

    She definitely would’ve had a better shot with crating an original song for “Amsterdam” …..are we sure she didn’t? Has it been confirmed?

    I think we would have known by now if that was the case

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    Anthagiox
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    #1205005540

    Carolina is coming from a movie that is a non-factor. The chance of most voters even knowing it exists is low. Taylor will have to put in a lot of work and pull in a lot of favors to get that song noticed and cared about by the voters. Most of the time the big-name popstars have to do something like a Bond theme to even get recognized. Going through past winners puts an emphasis on how much of an impressive outlier Gaga’s win with ‘Shallow’ was.

    If I recall correctly, the one thing that shows on the ballot is the name of the movie and the song.

    Top Gun – Hold My Hand
    Carolina – Where The Crawdads Sing

    C’mon, this is a no-brainer.

    Doja’s ‘Vegas’ and One Republican’s song from TG were Gaga’s biggest contenders until it turned out they’re not eligible because of the samples they use. Regarding Doja, I’m interested in if an exception can be made. The sample they used in that song is not a huge part of the overall song and doesn’t change the fact that it’s an original song. I’m not sure how strict the Academy is, though.

    Remember its not best song, it is the song that represents it’s film the best. Has nothing to do with charts, or it being a bop, or anything. It needs to represent the movie the best among all contenders. Same with score, it has to represent the movie and accompany the movie the best. Can you imagine Jaws without its score? It literally is 2 notes over and over. But, you cannot separate the movie from that score. On my Way lyrics are mid and short, I can’t see this composition winning the award. Hold my hand is the front runner but I think it is mid. Maybe because it is not Take My Breath Away, but I don’t think its Gaga’s best and I don’t think it embodies the movie in a profound way. But, she will probably win. Right now Carolina seems to be on the map as an art piece, but Taylor’s songs for movies never go anywhere so I doubt this one will either. This one reflects the story perfectly and was very creative in the production, only using instruments made/available pre-1953. That may win artsy points with the Academy. But, right now this is going to Gaga.

    You say this award is not about “best song” and then say HMH shouldn’t win because it’s “not Gaga’s best”. You gotta make up your mind lol. HMH is used throughout the entirety of the movie’s score and helps build up impactful moments in multiple parts of the film. Once the song finally plays at the end and the lyrics come in, it’s a huge wall of sound and emotion that perfectly encapsulates everything you just watched. It’s the perfect ending for a stellar movie about the same themes Gaga is singing about in the song.

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    alittle03
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    #1205006096

    Congratulations, finally, to Diane Warren on your first Oscar.

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    Nathan Rand
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    #1205006124

    I’ll be honest, that sounds like every other single Diane Warren penned Oscar track, just another “empowerment” anthem. But Diane has been overdue a win, she should’ve won for TIHTY over that awful bond song. Congrats to her on entering the race!!! Knowing Diane and her recent history she’s locked for a nomination.

    The film itself sounds interesting while also sounding kinda like a mess… 7 different directors? We’ll see, should be interesting.

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