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2023 Oscar Contenders (Part 2)

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    Shrek Superslam
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    #1204892101

    My take on Everything Everywhere All at Once’s chances, broken down by category and ranked by likeliness of nomination: Will Almost Definitely Be Nominated: 1. Film Editing – The editing in this movie is absolutely insane. This category’s strong correlation with Best Picture nominees makes me a little worried, but I think it’ll be a Baby Driver, where the sheer magnitude of the craft will be too astounding to ignore. 2. Visual Effects – For how many big blockbusters they do nominate, the visual effects team has proven time and time again that they also do love to see “smaller” movies succeed. 3. Sound – Film Editing and Sound so often go hand in hand. Very Safe Bets: 4. Costume Design 5. Production Design 6. Makeup and Hairstyling – All of these categories should be shoo-ins, and I almost put them in the category above just because the multiverse concept allows for such a wide range of kooky and creative visual aspects, but the fact that the voters for these can be picky puts them a little more on the bubble for me. Depends on the Campaign: 7. Picture – Honestly the rest of the nominations feel like they’ll be determined by whether it gets into Picture or not. A24 has proved in the past how seriously they can fumble campaigns, so I think for any of the following nominations to happen, it has to get into Picture. Granted, six BTL nominations is a LOT for a film that’s not a Picture nominee, but that’s exactly why I think Picture is the most likely after this, because even if the directors/actors/writers aren’t fans, the technical love can push it over, like Nightmare Alley. 8. Director – Dune has proved that a movie can dominate below the line and still miss this category, but the fact that this isn’t a remake, the Daniels are relatively fresh faces, and there’s so much wild creativity on display makes me think it’s got a shot. But there’s a good chance it’s snubbed for something “smaller” that’s more traditionally up the Academy’s alley. A24 Is Going to Have Trouble: 9. Actress (Michelle Yeoh) 10. Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan) – Yeoh and Quan feel like a package deal to me. I’m not at ALL convinced the actors are going to bite, and it is possible that they just go for Yeoh because she’s a big, never-nominated name, but everyone who praises her praises Quan in the same breath. I’m not going to predict them until we see what the buzz for this movie is like at the end of the year, but while I’m not counting them out, A24 is really going to have to push hard to get them in, and actors are going to have to make the decision to vote for things extremely dissimilar to how they’ve voted in th past. 11. Original Screenplay – Similar to actors, this doesn’t seem like a writers’ thing. Granted, I said the same about Dune, but I think it is just too silly and the jokes are too goofy for the writers to jump for it. However, the sheer creativity and emotional family story might get them on board. Much Longer Shots: 12. Cinematography – The cinematography is gorgeous, but I think that branch is just a tad too snobby. 13. Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu) – Hsu is amazing, totally on par with her co-stars, which is why I’m disappointed to see she’s already being left out of the conversation in a lot of reviews that praise Yeoh and Quan. She seems destined to be a critical group darling turned unfortunate snub. 14. Original Score – Less than 24 hours post-viewing, I can’t say I really specifically remember any part of the score. That’s not a fault of it, I remember really liking it during the movie, but there’s just so much going on visually that the music is the last thing you’re thinking about at any given moment. I suspect it’ll be similar for voters. Not Happening: 15. Original Song – It’s a great song! But not what the Academy goes for.

    I hate to say it, but I don’t see it as anywhere near close to a lock, until it starts winning critics awards… and even then…

    Just because audiences and critics love a movie doesn’t mean the Academy will.

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    wolfali
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    #1204892133

    Just because audiences and critics love a movie doesn’t mean the Academy will.

    Doesn’t mean the academy won’t like it either. Every year on these forums people assume that because the academy one year gives two acting awards to biopics that AMPAS voters are stuck in 1992 and will shudder at the thought of nominating a genrey film with a plot that’s not too conventional. Sure they may not make the most “daring” of choices all the time and they still have their biases but in the past two years alone they’ve nominated a 3 hour Japanese slow burn movie, a social thriller about a woman taking revenge on her friend’s rapist and a sci-fi movie with sandworms. 21 out of the 40 actors who were nominated in the last two years were first time nominees. 3 out of 5 of this year’s best actress nominees all had a television series air in the past year and will each have another one airing in the year before next year’s ceremony takes place.

    The winners this year may have fit the stereotypes we all hold the academy to but the nominations this year showed that the notions of what is a typical Oscar nominated film or which type of performer can get nominated and which can’t are archaic mindsets teeming with lots of inaccuracies.

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    UnionCityMood
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    #1204892162

    As much as I hope EEAAO could snap a few nominations, the release day is way too early for Oscar contention…and I have very little faith in A24. The last Eastern Asian actress that gathered buzz for the Oscar still failed to get a nomination despite a GG win, and the studio was also A24. And that was a relatively “weak year” as many have claimed.

    Babylon on the other hand seems to be more competitive. Late release date, early screenings with good reviews, Paramount, a bunch of former winners and nominees in the crew (and mostly white), topics about Hollywood, etc.

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    Setia Yasmine Khalil
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    #1204892187

    Definitely it is chazelle Vs Spielberg and innaritu in screenplay and probably women talking Vs  killers  in adapted in my opinion

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204892233

    As much as I hope EEAAO could snap a few nominations, the release day is way too early for Oscar contention

    I agree with the comment about seeing how it goes when it’s wide, but at the end of the day, everything else is straight conjecture and hopedicting. We at least know how this has been received. We also just had an Oscar winner come out of Sundance. I also would prefer to not discount someone based on their history with East Asian actresses because it feels like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204892237

    I definitely do NOT think it will be just a showdown of recycled Oscar faves.

    Recent years do not point that way.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204892252

    I definitely do NOT think it will be just a showdown of recycled Oscar faves. Recent years do not point that way.

    I kind of hate recycled faves hopedicting because it shuts out conversation on movies that might actually be a thing. If you go back and read old threads it is little wonder CODA went under the  radar because everyone is babbling on about films that no one will see until about November (or didn’t even debut in time).

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204892262

    I kind of hate recycled faves hopedicting because it shuts out conversation on movies that might actually be a thing. If you go back and read old threads it is little wonder CODA went under the radar because everyone is babbling on about films that no one will see until about November (or didn’t even debut in time).

    Even the weekend it debuted on Apple, the most popular write up it got was that it couldn’t compete with The White Lotus

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204892264

    Coda IMDb RATING 8.1/10
    79K

    Sag Ensemble win + PGA win + WGA win

     

    Lotus IMDb RATING 7.6/10
    55K
    Sag loss + PGA loss + WGA loss

    Talent won in the end.

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    kbc
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    #1204892301

    Clayton Davis, not doing the research:

    Dog tied Johnny Belinda and Becket, as well as The Turning Point and The Color Purple, in losing 11 Oscars.

    https://variety.com/2022/awards/awards/oscars-2023-predictions-blind-fabelmans-killers-of-the-flower-moon-1235219192/

    After “The Power of the Dog” tied “The Turning Point” (1977) and “The Color Purple” (1985) as the only films ever to lose 11 Oscars, Netflix is shaking it off this season and, once again, will have an abundance of choices. Their most “buzzy” comes from “Mank” director David Fincher with his adaptation of “The Killer” with two-time nominee Michael Fassbender and Oscar winner Tilda Swinton. The streaming giant will also be captaining the hotly anticipated sequel “Knives Out 2” (please get Kathryn Hahn an Oscar nom); Noah Baumbach’s “White Noise,” an adaptation of the Don DeLillo novel (with Adam Driver and Baumbach’s partner Greta Gerwig); Guillermo del Toro’s “Pinocchio” (an animated, dark re-telling of the classic); and much more.

    Also he sees Ms. Yeoh as EEAAO’s sole shot at an Oscar nom.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Cosmia
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    #1204892316

    Coda IMDb RATING 8.1/10 79K Sag Ensemble win + PGA win + WGA win Lotus IMDb RATING 7.6/10 55K Sag loss + PGA loss + WGA loss Talent won in the end.

    Talent is not defined by awards. And anyway, comparing a movie to a tv show, both with wildly different tones, is asinine.

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    Cosmia
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    #1204892318

    Also, I’d pump the brakes on EEAAO. Nothing would make me happier than to see it become a worldwide smash showered in Oscar glory, but it’s A24. Netflix and Apple gutted their campaign team, they won’t be able to do much.

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1204892323

    The way this entire section from the Variety article is written just made me cackle

    Best Original Song

    Possible original song from “Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)
    TBA from “Lyle, Lyle Crocodile” (Sony Pictures) – PREDICTED WINNER
    Possible original song from “I Wanna Dance with Somebody” (Sony Pictures)
    Possible original song from “Wendell and Wild” (Netflix)
    Possible original song from “White Bird: A Wonder Story” (Lionsgate)
    Alternate: Possible song from “Lightyear” (Pixar)

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