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I think there’s definitely room for a critical darling in this thinner than usual year. If anyone though, that will most likely be Paul Mescal since Aftersun is the best reviewed movie of the year by a decent margin. But if they do go to Jeremy Pope he could totally pick up steam, ESPECIALLY if Gabrielle Union becomes more of a contender.
I agree. I think Pope needed a stronger bounce from the NYFF than he received, and his chances, in my view, are currently “behind” Mescal’s chances, but there’s still time.
This is an interesting race because I think we’ll have different winners at different precursors. I think Farrell will win Comedy Globe and BAFTA, Fraser will win Critics Choice and SAG, and Butler will win Drama Globe.
The fact that not a single acting category has one undisputed frontrunner (which shouldnt be rare in november but somehow is) is exciting! Fraser in actor is probably the closest but he’s definitely looking more vulnerable than say, Smith or really anyone from 2019 was looking at this point.
My predix (i love the Actor thread every year, except for maybe Chadwick vs Hopkins lol, that year was a mess over here, it’s very calm and y’all make really good points for everyone).
1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of inisherin
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (feeling he will be pushed hard by critics)
7. Diego Calva, Babylon
8. Tom Cruise, Top Gun : Maverick
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
10. Park Hae-il, Decision to LeaveFYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
Thinking about Diego’s chances. There’s really no precedent for someone like him getting nominated.
Chalamet was in Interstellar, Kaluuya had a lot of buzz from that iconic Black Mirror episode also from Sicario, Eisenberg was in Zombieland. Bichir was a wildcard, but it was a passion pick in a small movie and he was pretty famous in Mexico.
Babylon being late breaker will not help him gaining buzz and goodwill and let people know who he is through campaigning, like it happened with Yalitza, Bakalova and Marina.
let people know who he is through campaigning, like it happened with Yalitza, Bakalova and Marina. [/quote]
Best Actor category is also less kind for these kinds of contenders than other acting categories.I think Calva could be this year’s Alana Haim.
I don’t buy the Calva predictions either. I’ve seen people’s explanations and I’m not convinced at all.
I think these four are pretty safe: Fraser, Farrell, Butler and Nighy (he’ll get in with the support of the British bloc). Not convinced about Calva either for that last spot. It will get clearer once the critics awards and the GG noms come in but I’ve got a feeling it’s going to be Ham Jackman.
<p style=”text-align: left;”>Predicting Mescal to get in based on his rising star status similar to Jesse Buckley’s nomination in supporting actress (ironically, both were in The Lost Daughter). Aftersun is perhaps Mescal’s most critically acclaimed and high profile project yet. He’s also worked with previous Oscar nominee, Emily Watson this year for God’s Creatures and stars in upcoming prestigious projects with Saoirse Ronan and Emmy Winner, Josh O’ Connor. The comparison isn’t the best though since two years prior of Buckley’s nomination, she received a surprise BAFTA Lead Actress nomination, so she was already under the Academy’s radar. A Mescal nomination is unprecedented, but I don’t view the possibility as 0.</p>
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossMescal is an Emmy nominee and BAFTA winner. He’s been working with a lot of high profile actors as well. He’s definitely on the Academy radar. I don’t think him getting nominated is that unprecedented. He’s probably going to get a big push from critics, which will obviously help.
<p style=”text-align: left;”>Predicting Mescal to get in based on his rising star status similar to Jesse Buckley’s nomination in supporting actress (ironically, both were in The Lost Daughter). Aftersun is perhaps Mescal’s most critically acclaimed and high profile project yet. He’s also worked with previous Oscar nominee, Emily Watson this year for God’s Creatures and stars in upcoming prestigious projects with Saoirse Ronan and Emmy Winner, Josh O’ Connor. The comparison isn’t the best though since two years prior of Buckley’s nomination, she received a surprise BAFTA Lead Actress nomination, so she was already under the Academy’s radar. A Mescal nomination is unprecedented, but I don’t view the possibility as 0.</p>
Mescal is also an Emmy nominee, don’t forget.
Mescal is an Emmy nominee and BAFTA winner. He’s been working with a lot of high profile actors as well. He’s definitely on the Academy radar. I don’t think him getting nominated is that unprecedented. He’s probably going to get a big push from critics, which will obviously help.
Oop I guess I meant unprecedented as in two A24 actors getting in Best Actor since Fraser us locked.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossThe first screening of NAPOLEON was yesterday and people who saw it called Joaquin Phoenix “At The Highest Level of Marlon Brando”. I think if NAPOLEON opens, Joaquin Phoenix is easily winning this Best Actor
Just saw Aftersun, Paul Mescal, Oscar nominee… i’m just saying…
I’m curious about Mescal’s chances. He’s a great actor and will certainly have some critics push… However, “Aftersun” (regardless of how good Mescal and the film are) has very little buzz in Hollywood right now. There are no screenings for it and very little ad buys… If they really want him in the race, they need to amp up that campaign stat.
Right now, all the screening buzz and talk is Farrell, Fraser and Butler… Nighy is doing a lot of screenings Q&A’s this weekend which will help his cause as well…
I really hope Pope’s campaign steps on the gas because he was brilliant and deserves a nom…
While a bit thin category this year, it’s an exciting race (adding in Jackman, Cruise, Calva, and even um, Will Smith) this could go many ways for the noms.
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