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This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Austin Butler winning this omg. He danced, sang, changed voice, did prosthetics, portrayed the King of Rock from 18-50 years old with ease. The Academy loves that.
Did Adam or Andrew play Elvis in a smash movie?
Austin Butler is Adam Driver from 2019, Andrew Garfield from last year. Brendan Fraser has the transformation and he’s a respected veteran. Farrell is the alternative.
Ehhh…Fraser is really not this respected veteran you think he is, The Whale is way too divisive to even make Picture and I honestly think Farrell will be the crtics pick this year. It’s really down to Butler vs Farrell. Butler could take Globe and SAG whereas Farrell could have the Olivia Colman path taking Globe, BAFTA and a regionals sweep. Fraser doesn’t seem win competitive anymore unless he surprisingly wins SAG.
Fraser’s narrative and charisma remains strong, but we’re talking about A24’s second priority against Searchlight’s big movie. Farrell will also win a GG, so unlike what most thought in the beginning there’s a more interesting race now, at least until SAG.
1- Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
2- Brendan Fraser – The Whale
3- Austin Butler – Elvis
4- Bill Nighy – Living
5- Hugh Jackman – The SonPeople are really overrating Fraser’s narrative, he could easily end up like another Close, Rourke, Bosemam.
He’s a liked veteran whose filmography is not that good in the first place, and The Whale is not a a critically acclaimed film. He could win like Smith did last year but the fact he would be a first time nominee with zero awards recognition in any way for a semi decent project makes me doubt him.
Elvis and Banshees are gonna get more nods than The Whale including Picture. Butler could upset Fraser at GG and SAG (and we know how much they love musical biopics) and Farrell could pull off an Olivia Colman with GG Comedy and BAFTA.
Fraser may be the favorite but he’s not a lock in any way.
"EGOT" and "Triple Crown of Acting" winner: VIOLA DAVIS!!!!
People are really overrating Fraser’s narrative, he could easily end up like another Close, Rourke, Bosemam.
He is closer to Stewart than to Close.
Honestly, the more I think, the more logical Butler or Farrell sound. Banshees has the great cast so I suppose one acting Oscar would go to them, and Farrell has better chances than Gleeson or Condon. As for Butler… Academy has given it to Rami Malek, so Austin Butler would certainly be an improvement on that, even if it is the same fashion of awarding actor in music biopic.
I have only seen 3 performances in the top 8: Colin Farrell, Austin Butler and Paul Mescal. So my predictions are guesses at most right now: Butler, Calva, Farrell, Fraser and Nighy. I am not convinced that Hugh Jackman will get a nomination. I don’t get the love for Tom Cruise in that ridiculous movie. Paul Mescal would be the small indie nominee if he made it in. Jeremy Pope would be the only p.o.c. nominee. I am intrigued by Babylon but I will take Calva out or leave him in once I see the movie later this month. I like the idea of all five nominees being first time nominees but Cruise and/or Jackman would make that not happen.
Austin Butler is too young, and too good looking to win over veterans like Fraser and Farrell. Slap the stud syndrome is a real thing. Not to mention a music biopic performance won literally 3 years ago. The academy always punished young heartthrobs, even if he may deserve it. He will get nominated as he deserves, I’d be shocked if he beats the other 2. Elvis isn’t as loved as Queen is, even though I liked the movie better. It’s really really hard when you’re new to the club, to immediately break through and win
Academy Award Winner Brendan Fraser
As of right now I don’t think Butler is close to winning. But he is in a sweet spot where he’s playing an icon most appreciated by older voters and he himself is known amongst young people. I don’t think his age is as much of a barrier as it might be for other younger contenders in this category.
It’s Butler vs Fraser I think for the win. Ferralll could play spoiler but the other two have a bigger chance of success of winning I think
People are only rooting for Fraser cause they think Elvis. Is too problematic to win
Elvis is not problematic lol, is the typical Oscar bait movie, Austin Butler could easily win, the divisive one is The Whale, 71% on Rotten Tomatoes just right now.
As of right now I don’t think Butler is close to winning. But he is in a sweet spot where he’s playing an icon most appreciated by older voters and he himself is known amongst young people. I don’t think his age is as much of a barrier as it might be for other younger contenders in this category.
As of right now I don’t think Butler is close to winning. But he is in a sweet spot where he’s playing an icon most appreciated by older voters and he himself is known amongst young people. I don’t think his age is as much of a barrier as it might be for other younger contenders in this category.
We’ll see. I’m just going off of past history. I honestly would be happy with any of Fraser, Farrell, Butler winning so I can just sit back and enjoy
Academy Award Winner Brendan Fraser
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