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2023 Oscars: Best Actor (Part 4)

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  • Joined:
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    #1205177890
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    Bonehead
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    #1205177896

    I stick by what I said last night

    Farrell or Fraser will need to sweep in order to stop Butler

    Unless a fictional character sweeps the season, the biopic performance has always prevailed over the last 20 years

     


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    Bonehead
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    #1205177910

    Oh I see you slowly but surely coming along to the Butler side. (Evil laugh ensues) but honestly, I get the hate on here for wanting to award yet another biopic performance, but I’ll be damned if it’s another Rami Malek in BR. It’s so much more, across the board, so much more. I honestly think people are so fatigued with biopics, and particularly Rami Malek winning 3 years ago, that they are on sight ready to cancel out Austin Butler. That’s my take. His performance is a revelation. It’s too bad people can’t see it as that, and instead just automatically go to “I hate biopics” mode

    Yeah, I am. I can’t say I’m happy about it, but I’m over it. I thought Elvis and Austin Butler were fine, but not great. It’s miles better than Bohemian Rhapsody at least.

    Once I read about the Academy reaction at an Elvis screening I realized what a top 5 nominee juggernaut it’s about to be and a lot about this season started to click into place.


    Rachel615
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    #1205177916

    I remain mystified that so many people are predicting an Oscar nomination for Tom Cruise. Not only do I think there’s nothing new or special about his performance, but I also think people are overestimating the significance of TGM’s box office success on the Best Actor competition, and underestimating the significance of how strongly many AMPAS members feel about his high level role in Scientology.


    Bonehead
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    #1205177926

    I also think people are overestimating the significance of TGM’s box office success

    At the end of the day, TGM is a franchise blockbuster that was never intended to be an awards contender. It’s not – and never was – some kind of prestige picture that deserves a bunch of Oscar love in addition to its financial success. I struggle to see what seperates it from a highly successful Avengers movie, or a Star Wars movie, or a James Bond movie.

    I’ve accepted that it’s probably winning Best Picture and a bunch of techs atp, but a nomination for Tom Cruise in Best Actor? No. IMHO, that would absolutely wreck the legitimacy and integrity of the awards.

    I can’t with the Tom Cruise talk. Not when Jeremy Pope, Paul Mescal, John Boyega, Gabriel LaBelle, Timothee Chalamet, Park Hae-il, Adam Sandler, Ralph Fiennes, etc. are right there and are all more deserving. Heck, I’d rather Zac Efron over Tom Cruise.


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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1205177934

    I know I am one of a group of people holding out to see if Mescal can get in for Aftersun, but after he couldn’t win at BIFA today even as Aftersun dominated I’m worried the passion he’d need just isn’t there. He’d need a boost and I think critics awards will be split multiple ways.

    I do agree Butler is in second behind Farrell right now. I don’t like it either, and I was just whelemed by his performance, but I accept that’s probably the case.


    Rachel615
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    #1205177974

    I am honestly mystified on those not predicting him. His role in Scientology? Girl, if that isn’t the reach of reaches not to predict him. ☠️
    If Top Gun Maverick is a serious threat to win, and I think it is, he’s coming along with it. He is the movie. How do you NOT nominate him is the real question.

    We’ll see. But out of curiosity, what would you know about it? Are you in the industry? I had worked for a number of years as an attorney at an entertainment law firm and you’d be amazed at how many people have very strong feelings about Cruise’s Scientology connections to the point where they won’t work with him and in particular, despise the actions he’s taken to discourage the use of medication to ever treat a psychiatric illness. Stephen Spielberg reportedly hasn’t spoken to him since his behavior in 2005 when promoting War of the Worlds despite 2002’s Minority Report being one of the best films either has made in the last 25 years. You might not be old enough to remember bizarre interviews Cruise gave around that time to Oprah and Matt Lauer. He is a powerful figure within the industry so most comments about him quoted in the media are usually fawning, unless made by prominent outspoken former Scientologists such as Leah Remini, but there is a negative view of Cruise personally that is widespread, especially among older, white, mostly but not exclusively American AMPAS members— the type who vote, who hold grudges, and who talk to friends. So-called journalists who want to suck up to him may predict him, but I’ll be amazed if AMPAS voters actually nominate him.


    KAZ-2.5
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    #1205177984

    I have Tom Cruise at number 5 because every other choice has more negatives than him on paper. I’ll take him out and replace him if he doesn’t show up anywhere important.


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    ejaru1810
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    #1205178041

    I have Tom Cruise at number 5 because every other choice has more negatives than him on paper. I’ll take him out and replace him if he doesn’t show up anywhere important.

    Agreed. Fraser, Butler and Farrell are locks which let us 2 open slots.

    Jackman seems DOA and the reception to The Son gets worse with every passing day also the promo has apparently stopped, Mescal is in a small film that may not build enough momentum and could be easily overlooked. Nighy could take the veteran slot pushed by European voters. Everyone else is not happening.

    Cruise has a real shot for the nod, mostly due to lack of competition. I’m still not sold but if he makes it at GG/CC/SAG, he may be a strong choice.


    Bonehead
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    #1205178052

    Tom Cruise isn’t a bad actor. I admire his performance in Magnolia and Edge of Tomorrow is one of the best action movies of the last decade.

    However, a nomination in Best Actor for Top Gun: Maverick would literally be the least deserving nominee in this category since… well, possibly ever

    Seriously, I’m going through every best actor list right now and I can’t find anything as embarrassing and harmful to the institution’s reputation as a Tom Cruise nomination would be this year.


    Mladen
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    #1205178088

    Cruise is certainly a mystery. Any other year, I would be rejecting the notion of him being nominated. This year, with these performances? He is possible. We also need to take into consideration whether “Maverick” can rally Academy voters to vote for movie and its leading star. For a while now, I have this nagging feeling that we have underestimated the passion and love for “Maverick” focusing more on critics’ darlings and well, Spielberg. So, terribly weak category without much passion save perhaps Fraser (and I am even questioning that) may result that the box office darling and “the last movie star” become an Oscar-nominated actor.

    On the other hand, I have to agree with both Bonehead and Rachel. First, I can’t remember when I was so meh on Best Actor nominee performance (perhaps Rami Malek). It probably isn’t the greatest crime, but I do have trouble remembering someone as uninspiring and simply ordinary like Cruise in “Maverick”. As for Cruise not be liked by industry, this may also be a thing. We have seen industry being rather forgiving towards some men (ahem, ahem, Brad Pitt) but Cruise in 2000s was out of control. I still remember that interview with Oprah and the infamous couch-jumping. Then, there is that mess with his kids with Nicole. IDK, a lot of weird stuff that would at best, make people eyeroll and at worst, hold grudges.

    But, Cruise is a definite possibility, no doubt about that. Not for a win, sure, but for a nomination.

    Spreading the Love: Oscars 2023
    Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Best Director: The Daniels
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett


    Victor
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    #1205178108

    I think Mescal will get in GG DRAMA + CC, maybe BAFTA. Also, Aftersun is really loved and he seems like the first place AMPAS would recognize based on passion.
    That should push him to an nod, currently predicting him.

    Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!

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