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Have you watched Aftersun? Because it seems like the typical independent film that will be left out in major industry awards. I don’t see any aspect of Aftersun being strong enough to break into the Oscars race. Paul Mescal’s performance is also too subtle to make a splash out of those independent or regional critic film awards.
This. I compeltely agree. People sometimes forget how mainstream The Academy tends to be. There are hundreds of amazing indie performances each year that go unrecognized. A24 literally has a chance to win the Oscar with Fraser and devoting resources to something that might just be ignored by the Academy makes zero sense.
What could be the reasoning for some people’s hesitation to include Cruise in their predictions? From Warner’s unsuccessful attempt with Tenet to Maverick‘s box office success, the man has been the face of the whole Back to the Movies campaign. He’s a previous nominee in this year’s biggest blockbuster while competing for a slot in what seems to be a very weak lineup, I mean…
Cruise isn’t really campaigning for himself. The campaign has been centered on Picture first. The push for Original Song has even been stronger. There’s no guarantee that people checking Maverick’s box for Picture feel all that strongly about getting Cruise in here. Compare that to Sandler who is actively campaigning for this category.
Letterboxd: Brayfers
!EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE!
- SEVEN OSCARS
- BEST PICTURE
- Michelle Yeoh, Best Actress
- Ke Huy Quan, Best Supporting Actor
- Jamie Lee Curtis, Best Supporting Actress
- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Best Director & Best Original Screenplay
- Paul Rogers, Best Film EditingFYC (TV):
- Abbott Elementary
- House of the Dragon
- The White Lotus
- The Last of UsCruise isn’t really campaigning for himself. The campaign has been centered on Picture first. The push for Original Song has even been stronger. There’s no guarantee that people checking Maverick’s box for Picture feel all that strongly about getting Cruise in here. Compare that to Sandler who is actively campaigning for this category.
Cruise doesn’t need to campaign for himself like McDormand didn’t need to do so in the 2020/21 race: they’re both the faces of their respective projects competing in wide-open races. I can see TGM winning Picture before Cruise even standing a chance to beat Fraser/Farrell, but he sure is locked for a nomination.
Cruise doesn’t need to campaign for himself like McDormand didn’t need to do so in the 2020/21 race: they’re both the faces of their respective projects competing in wide-open races. I can see TGM winning Picture before Cruise even standing a chance to beat Fraser/Farrell, but he sure is locked for a nomination.
Idk about this. McDormand is a two time Oscar winner industry titan so she can afford to not campaign. Cruise has one Oscar nomination and his performance won’t get critics nominations and it’s still a blockbuster action performance.
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Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossIdk about this. McDormand is a two time Oscar winner industry titan so she can afford to not campaign. Cruise has one Oscar nomination and his performance won’t get critics nominations and it’s still a blockbuster action performance.
Cruise is also an industry titan and has three Oscar nominations under his belt, not one. My point is that if McDormand status within the industry guaranteed her a third win in an open race, Cruise’s industry status can get him a fourth nod in an (even more) open race.
He sure ain’t getting no attention from the critics (and rightly so imo), but his performance being a blockbuster action one doesn’t matter that much in a year where Davis and Mbedu (a newcomer!) are in consideration for a blockbuster action film that hasn’t been near as noisy as Maverick was despite the competitiveness of their respective categories.
Cruise is also an industry titan and has three Oscar nominations under his belt, not one. My point is that if McDormand status within the industry guaranteed her a third win in an open race, Cruise’s industry status can get him a fourth nod in an (even more) open race. He sure ain’t getting no attention from the critics (and rightly so imo), but his performance being a blockbuster action one doesn’t matter that much in a year where Davis and Mbedu (a newcomer!) are in consideration for a blockbuster action film that hasn’t been near as noisy as Maverick was despite the competitiveness of their respective categories.
Oop genuine mistake about Cruise’s oscar nominations. I think Cruise is popular within the acting branch, but isn’t nearly as venerated as McDormand so I do think he has to campaign. I remember DiCaprio was widely predicted due to his movie star status and Don’t Look Up was more acting-friendly than Top Gun, but ultimately lost the nomination because there was so little passion for his performance.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossOop genuine mistake about Cruise’s oscar nominations. I think Cruise is popular within the acting branch, but isn’t nearly as venerated as McDormand so I do think he has to campaign. I remember DiCaprio was widely predicted due to his movie star status and Don’t Look Up was more acting-friendly than Top Gun, but ultimately lost the nomination because there was so little passion for his performance.
Yeah! Leo’s case last year was much similar to Cruise’s, which is why I’m really not confident in putting him as win-competitive for now. The thing is that I see Maverick’s momentum being lit up again with all the expected guild-love and I really see the whole “Movies are back!” narrative playing an important part this year. If I’m correct, Cruise name-check votes might be irresistible to a good share of lazy Academy members.
Yeah! Leo’s case last year was much similar to Cruise’s, which is why I’m really not confident in putting him as win-competitive for now. The thing is that I see Maverick’s momentum being lit up again with all the expected guild-love and I really see the whole “Movies are back!” narrative playing an important part this year. If I’m correct, Cruise name-check votes might be irresistible to a good share of lazy Academy members.
Yeah I was pretty doubtful of DiCaprio’s chances last year and once he missed SAG, I ditched him. I definitely think some will namecheck Cruise not only for his starpower, but for his refusal to backdown from putting Maverick in theaters. I just question whether it’ll be enough votes since this isn’t exactly a coattail type of nom if he gets in (more like a career reward). If he does get into SAG, I’d take it pretty seriously.
Idk about this. McDormand is a two time Oscar winner industry titan so she can afford to not campaign. Cruise has one Oscar nomination and his performance won’t get critics nominations and it’s still a blockbuster action performance.
Cruise has three Oscar nominations, not one— he was nominated for Magnolia, Jerry McGuire, and Born on the Fourth of July.
I think there’s a different issue to consider. Cruise’s prominence in the Scientology hierarchy alienates many AMPAS members. There are some who will never vote for him for this reason.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.I think the only performances to be nominated for Best Actor from summer action/adventure movies over the last 40 years were Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean and Russell Crowe in Gladiator.
It would be so atypical for the Academy to nominate Tom Cruise for Top Gun 2 that I have a hard time seeing it happen.
It’s certainly possible though. If he makes Globe and/or SAG then I’ll take him seriously.
If he is nominated, I think it would show that Top Gun 2 has enough passion to win Best Picture.
Diego Calva is coming.
John Boyega was amazing in breaking. Had a horrible release but i wish it was in contention more
A little bit of Magic never hurt anybody.
~ MYSTIC
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