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Frontrunners
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Austin Butler, ElvisNext in line
Bill Nighy, Living
On the brink
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: MaverickStrong possibilities
Adam Sandler, Hustle
Hugh Jackman, The SonPossibilities
Jeremy Pope, Inspection
Daniel McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western FrontTheoretical possibilities
Adam Driver, White Noise
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Diego Calva, Babylon
Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness
Daniel Kaluuya, Nope
Ralph Fiennes, The MenuNighy was probably top 3 and Living is in a good place to win Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA. After he got in at SAG, I don’t really have a reason to think he’ll miss.
Once again, lots of angst over this 5th slot. Mescal has too much against him now for me to confidently predict him. He didn’t do amazingly with critics, A24 doesn’t have capacity to campaign the film, and it underperformed at BAFTA which is the biggest bummer of all. Safe to assume he was a jury pick, but I don’t know if I want to play the game of where he ranked on the longlist versus others. Doubt that matters much anyways.
ReplyCopy URLPost BAFTA Noms Predictions:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun6. Hugh Jackman, The Son
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
8. Adam Sandler, Hustle
8. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
10. Gabriel LaBelle, The FabelmansI don’t actually believe in Mescal. Aftersun should have been catnip for BAFTA’s screenplay & director categories but neither happened. He’s just the only one who’s gotten in at multiple precursors so he’s my default.
Something weird is going to happen in this category. Sandler could get a makeup nom for Uncut Gems. The Menu hit HBO Max at the exact right time. Fabelmans severely underperformed at BAFTA but it’s still top 3 everywhere else.
ReplyCopy URLNighy was probably top 3 and Living is in a good place to win Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA. After he got in at SAG, I don’t really have a reason to think he’ll miss. Once again, lots of angst over this 5th slot. Mescal has too much against him now for me to confidently predict him. He didn’t do amazingly with critics, A24 doesn’t have capacity to campaign the film, and it underperformed at BAFTA which is the biggest bummer of all. Safe to assume he was a jury pick, but I don’t know if I want to play the game of where he ranked on the longlist versus others. Doubt that matters much anyways.
are we sure that the whale won’t put a coda there
ReplyCopy URLI think Mescal can rise above the lack of campaign and unsteady footing of Aftersun just because he fits the exact “new critical darling on the block” mold the Oscars tend to push to a nomination. I acknowledge that most of my other examples came from films that were definitely stronger overall, but to me he falls into the same camp as people like Jesse Plemons, Jessie Buckley, Lakeith Stanfield, and Florence Pugh who had been doing great work on the indie scene in the couple years before their nominations and received a boost because the Academy recognizes that better than the other awards bodies.
ReplyCopy URLFYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)
I think Mescal can rise above the lack of campaign and unsteady footing of Aftersun just because he fits the exact “new critical darling on the block” mold the Oscars tend to push to a nomination. I acknowledge that most of my other examples came from films that were definitely stronger overall, but to me he falls into the same camp as people like Jesse Plemons, Jessie Buckley, Lakeith Stanfield, and Florence Pugh who had been doing great work on the indie scene in the couple years before their nominations and received a boost because the Academy recognizes that better than the other awards bodies.
True but 3/4s of those actors were in big best picture contenders. Even the Lost Daughter had actress & screenplay nominations. A better comparison to that type of nomination this year would be Keoghan in supporting actor.
ReplyCopy URLBrendan Fraser
Austin Butler
Colin Farrell
Bill Nighy
Felix Kammerer
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Zar Amir Ebrahimi - Holy Spider (Best Actress)
Ana de Armas, Julianne Nicholson - Blonde (Best Actress, Supporting Actress)
Samantha Morton - She Said (Best Supporting Actress)
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Supporting Actress)Last predictions pre-Oscar noms, post SAG and BAFTA noms/Globes/CCs
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
9. Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Diego Calva, BabylonReplyCopy URL• FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.
True but 3/4s of those actors were in big best picture contenders. Even the Lost Daughter had actress & screenplay nominations. A better comparison to that type of nomination this year would be Keoghan in supporting actor.
That is true, and I acknowledged that, but my base point is that the Academy jumps to recognize that kind of performer when they’re hovering just outside a category. Unless Kammerer or LaBelle causes a huge shocker on nomination morning, we’re already expecting that fifth slot to go to someone who isn’t in a Picture contender (or really a major contender at all). Mescal is definitely hovering around sixth or seventh at worst after CC and BAFTA, and the people in those spots who have really been putting in the work on the indie scene are usually boosted up by the Academy to a nom.
EDIT: Yes, Cruise is also there, but if TGM couldn’t even make Ensemble at the wildly populist SAG, I doubt actors care enough to nominate him.
ReplyCopy URLFYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)
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