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2023 Oscars: Best Actor (Part 7)

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  • Chris Beachum
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    May 22nd, 2011
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    #1205253634

    Continue in Part 7.

    Reply

    Bonehead
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    Jan 20th, 2021
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    #1205253639

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    Foolio
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    Jan 24th, 2017
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    #1205253737

    Frontrunners

    Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
    Brendan Fraser, The Whale
    Austin Butler, Elvis

    Next in line

    Bill Nighy, Living

    On the brink

    Paul Mescal, Aftersun
    Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

    Strong possibilities

    Adam Sandler, Hustle
    Hugh Jackman, The Son

    Possibilities

    Jeremy Pope, Inspection
    Daniel McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
    Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front

    Theoretical possibilities

    Adam Driver, White Noise
    Diego Calva, Babylon
    Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness
    Daniel Kaluuya, Nope
    Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

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    kamila
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    Dec 6th, 2021
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    #1205253780

    Nighy was probably top 3 and Living is in a good place to win Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA. After he got in at SAG, I don’t really have a reason to think he’ll miss.

    Once again, lots of angst over this 5th slot. Mescal has too much against him now for me to confidently predict him. He didn’t do amazingly with critics, A24 doesn’t have capacity to campaign the film, and it underperformed at BAFTA which is the biggest bummer of all. Safe to assume he was a jury pick, but I don’t know if I want to play the game of where he ranked on the longlist versus others. Doubt that matters much anyways.

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    DanC
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    Jun 10th, 2020
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    #1205253877

    Post BAFTA Noms Predictions:

    1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
    2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
    3. Austin Butler, Elvis
    4. Bill Nighy, Living
    5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

    6. Hugh Jackman, The Son
    7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
    8. Adam Sandler, Hustle
    8. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
    10. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

    I don’t actually believe in Mescal. Aftersun should have been catnip for BAFTA’s screenplay & director categories but neither happened. He’s just the only one who’s gotten in at multiple precursors so he’s my default.

    Something weird is going to happen in this category. Sandler could get a makeup nom for Uncut Gems. The Menu hit HBO Max at the exact right time. Fabelmans severely underperformed at BAFTA but it’s still top 3 everywhere else.

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    Setia Yasmine Khalil
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    #1205253899

    Nighy was probably top 3 and Living is in a good place to win Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA. After he got in at SAG, I don’t really have a reason to think he’ll miss. Once again, lots of angst over this 5th slot. Mescal has too much against him now for me to confidently predict him. He didn’t do amazingly with critics, A24 doesn’t have capacity to campaign the film, and it underperformed at BAFTA which is the biggest bummer of all. Safe to assume he was a jury pick, but I don’t know if I want to play the game of where he ranked on the longlist versus others. Doubt that matters much anyways.

    are we sure that the whale won’t put a coda there

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    Heptapod
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    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1205253916

    I think Mescal can rise above the lack of campaign and unsteady footing of Aftersun just because he fits the exact “new critical darling on the block” mold the Oscars tend to push to a nomination. I acknowledge that most of my other examples came from films that were definitely stronger overall, but to me he falls into the same camp as people like Jesse Plemons, Jessie Buckley, Lakeith Stanfield, and Florence Pugh who had been doing great work on the indie scene in the couple years before their nominations and received a boost because the Academy recognizes that better than the other awards bodies.

    FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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    Victor
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    Jun 18th, 2020
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    #1205253941

    Let me post my usual Colin gif

    Winning because I want him to win.

    Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!

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    DanC
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    #1205253954

    I think Mescal can rise above the lack of campaign and unsteady footing of Aftersun just because he fits the exact “new critical darling on the block” mold the Oscars tend to push to a nomination. I acknowledge that most of my other examples came from films that were definitely stronger overall, but to me he falls into the same camp as people like Jesse Plemons, Jessie Buckley, Lakeith Stanfield, and Florence Pugh who had been doing great work on the indie scene in the couple years before their nominations and received a boost because the Academy recognizes that better than the other awards bodies.

    True but 3/4s of those actors were in big best picture contenders. Even the Lost Daughter had actress & screenplay nominations. A better comparison to that type of nomination this year would be Keoghan in supporting actor.

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    Vicki Leekx
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    Aug 3rd, 2019
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    #1205253963

    Brendan Fraser

    Austin Butler

    Colin Farrell

    Bill Nighy

    Felix Kammerer

    FYC:

    Zar Amir Ebrahimi - Holy Spider (Best Actress)
    Ana de Armas, Julianne Nicholson - Blonde (Best Actress, Supporting Actress)
    Samantha Morton - She Said (Best Supporting Actress)
    Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Supporting Actress)

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    alittle03
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    Sep 16th, 2020
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    #1205253971

    Last predictions pre-Oscar noms, post SAG and BAFTA noms/Globes/CCs

    1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
    2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
    3. Austin Butler, Elvis
    4. Bill Nighy, Living
    5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

    6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
    7. Hugh Jackman, The Son
    8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
    9. Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front
    10. Diego Calva, Babylon

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    estrelas
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    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1205253990

    Austin Butler, Elvis
    Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
    Brendan Fraser, The Whale
    Paul Mescal, Aftersun
    Bill Nighy, Living

    Alt: Felix Kammerer, All Quiet On the Western Front

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    Heptapod
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    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1205254009

    True but 3/4s of those actors were in big best picture contenders. Even the Lost Daughter had actress & screenplay nominations. A better comparison to that type of nomination this year would be Keoghan in supporting actor.

    That is true, and I acknowledged that, but my base point is that the Academy jumps to recognize that kind of performer when they’re hovering just outside a category. Unless Kammerer or LaBelle causes a huge shocker on nomination morning, we’re already expecting that fifth slot to go to someone who isn’t in a Picture contender (or really a major contender at all). Mescal is definitely hovering around sixth or seventh at worst after CC and BAFTA, and the people in those spots who have really been putting in the work on the indie scene are usually boosted up by the Academy to a nom.

    EDIT: Yes, Cruise is also there, but if TGM couldn’t even make Ensemble at the wildly populist SAG, I doubt actors care enough to nominate him.

    FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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    Chitanda170
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    Apr 1st, 2020
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    #1205254013

    My God, Brendan Fraser is winning the Oscar, I can’t believe it 😳

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    abelfenty
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    Jul 14th, 2018
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    #1205254015

    The 5th slot is a real head scratcher. I was feeling Paul Mescal until Aftersun underperformed today. Tom Cruise might end up just taking it since he’s in the strongest contender. Felix Kammerer is also a possibility if All Quiet performs well here.

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