2023 Oscars: Best Actor (Part 7)

[Chris Beachum Joined: May 22nd, 2011 Topics: 802 Posts: 1321 View Predictions]

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Continue in Part 7.

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[Bonehead Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1698 View Predictions]

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[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 651 View Predictions]

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Frontrunners

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Austin Butler, Elvis

Next in line

Bill Nighy, Living

On the brink

Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Strong possibilities

Adam Sandler, Hustle
Hugh Jackman, The Son

Possibilities

Jeremy Pope, Inspection
Daniel McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front

Theoretical possibilities

Adam Driver, White Noise
Diego Calva, Babylon
Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness
Daniel Kaluuya, Nope
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

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Nighy was probably top 3 and Living is in a good place to win Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA. After he got in at SAG, I don’t really have a reason to think he’ll miss.

Once again, lots of angst over this 5th slot. Mescal has too much against him now for me to confidently predict him. He didn’t do amazingly with critics, A24 doesn’t have capacity to campaign the film, and it underperformed at BAFTA which is the biggest bummer of all. Safe to assume he was a jury pick, but I don’t know if I want to play the game of where he ranked on the longlist versus others. Doubt that matters much anyways.

[DanC Joined: Jun 10th, 2020 Topics: 2 Posts: 481 View Predictions]

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Post BAFTA Noms Predictions:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

6. Hugh Jackman, The Son
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
8. Adam Sandler, Hustle
8. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
10. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

I don’t actually believe in Mescal. Aftersun should have been catnip for BAFTA’s screenplay & director categories but neither happened. He’s just the only one who’s gotten in at multiple precursors so he’s my default.

Something weird is going to happen in this category. Sandler could get a makeup nom for Uncut Gems. The Menu hit HBO Max at the exact right time. Fabelmans severely underperformed at BAFTA but it’s still top 3 everywhere else.

[Setia Yasmine Khalil Joined: Jan 14th, 2022 Topics: 1 Posts: 1706 View Predictions]

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kamila wrote:

Nighy was probably top 3 and Living is in a good place to win Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA. After he got in at SAG, I don’t really have a reason to think he’ll miss. Once again, lots of angst over this 5th slot. Mescal has too much against him now for me to confidently predict him. He didn’t do amazingly with critics, A24 doesn’t have capacity to campaign the film, and it underperformed at BAFTA which is the biggest bummer of all. Safe to assume he was a jury pick, but I don’t know if I want to play the game of where he ranked on the longlist versus others. Doubt that matters much anyways.

are we sure that the whale won’t put a coda there

[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1069 View Predictions]

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I think Mescal can rise above the lack of campaign and unsteady footing of Aftersun just because he fits the exact “new critical darling on the block” mold the Oscars tend to push to a nomination. I acknowledge that most of my other examples came from films that were definitely stronger overall, but to me he falls into the same camp as people like Jesse Plemons, Jessie Buckley, Lakeith Stanfield, and Florence Pugh who had been doing great work on the indie scene in the couple years before their nominations and received a boost because the Academy recognizes that better than the other awards bodies.

FYC: Bad Sisters (Anne-Marie Duff) Cunk on Earth (Diane Morgan), Fleishman Is in Trouble (Lizzy Caplan/Claire Danes), Industry (Marisa Abela/Myha'la Herrold), Physical (Rose Byrne), Poker Face (Ellen Barkin/Joseph Gordon-Levitt/Chloë Sevigny), The White Lotus (Sabrina Impacciatore)

[Victor Joined: Jun 18th, 2020 Topics: 20 Posts: 9353 View Predictions]

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Let me post my usual Colin gif

Winning because I want him to win.

FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.

Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!

[DanC Joined: Jun 10th, 2020 Topics: 2 Posts: 481 View Predictions]

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Heptapod wrote:

I think Mescal can rise above the lack of campaign and unsteady footing of Aftersun just because he fits the exact “new critical darling on the block” mold the Oscars tend to push to a nomination. I acknowledge that most of my other examples came from films that were definitely stronger overall, but to me he falls into the same camp as people like Jesse Plemons, Jessie Buckley, Lakeith Stanfield, and Florence Pugh who had been doing great work on the indie scene in the couple years before their nominations and received a boost because the Academy recognizes that better than the other awards bodies.

True but 3/4s of those actors were in big best picture contenders. Even the Lost Daughter had actress & screenplay nominations. A better comparison to that type of nomination this year would be Keoghan in supporting actor.

[Vicki Leekx Joined: Aug 3rd, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 1893 View Predictions]

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Brendan Fraser

Austin Butler

Colin Farrell

Bill Nighy

Felix Kammerer

FYC:

Zar Amir Ebrahimi - Holy Spider (Best Actress)
Ana de Armas, Julianne Nicholson - Blonde (Best Actress, Supporting Actress)
Samantha Morton - She Said (Best Supporting Actress)
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Supporting Actress)

[alittle03 Joined: Sep 16th, 2020 Topics: 7 Posts: 2274 View Predictions]

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Last predictions pre-Oscar noms, post SAG and BAFTA noms/Globes/CCs

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
9. Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Diego Calva, Babylon

[estrelas Joined: Jul 25th, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 6824 View Predictions]

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Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

Alt: Felix Kammerer, All Quiet On the Western Front

[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1069 View Predictions]

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DanC wrote:

True but 3/4s of those actors were in big best picture contenders. Even the Lost Daughter had actress & screenplay nominations. A better comparison to that type of nomination this year would be Keoghan in supporting actor.

That is true, and I acknowledged that, but my base point is that the Academy jumps to recognize that kind of performer when they’re hovering just outside a category. Unless Kammerer or LaBelle causes a huge shocker on nomination morning, we’re already expecting that fifth slot to go to someone who isn’t in a Picture contender (or really a major contender at all). Mescal is definitely hovering around sixth or seventh at worst after CC and BAFTA, and the people in those spots who have really been putting in the work on the indie scene are usually boosted up by the Academy to a nom.

EDIT: Yes, Cruise is also there, but if TGM couldn’t even make Ensemble at the wildly populist SAG, I doubt actors care enough to nominate him.

FYC: Bad Sisters (Anne-Marie Duff) Cunk on Earth (Diane Morgan), Fleishman Is in Trouble (Lizzy Caplan/Claire Danes), Industry (Marisa Abela/Myha'la Herrold), Physical (Rose Byrne), Poker Face (Ellen Barkin/Joseph Gordon-Levitt/Chloë Sevigny), The White Lotus (Sabrina Impacciatore)

[Chitanda170 Joined: Apr 1st, 2020 Topics: 2 Posts: 1589 View Predictions]

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My God, Brendan Fraser is winning the Oscar, I can’t believe it 😳

[abelfenty Joined: Jul 14th, 2018 Topics: 5 Posts: 1294 View Predictions]

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The 5th slot is a real head scratcher. I was feeling Paul Mescal until Aftersun underperformed today. Tom Cruise might end up just taking it since he’s in the strongest contender. Felix Kammerer is also a possibility if All Quiet performs well here.