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I agree that Blanchett doesn’t feel like a slam dunk for the Globe. Whilst I don’t think she can win I wonder if we’re underestimating Jennifer Lawrence at the Globes. Not only do they seem to like her a lot but I get the feeling that Causeway could be the film that everyone talks about as a contender for a sole nod but then over-performs slightly with the HFPA and no one really knows why. Almost like The Mauritanian (although of course BTH will have a lot more critical support than whatever Foster and Rahim had).
If you add Lawrence, who would you remove from the 5 you have listed?
I agree that Blanchett doesn’t feel like a slam dunk for the Globe. Whilst I don’t think she can win I wonder if we’re underestimating Jennifer Lawrence at the Globes. Not only do they seem to like her a lot but I get the feeling that Causeway could be the film that everyone talks about as a contender for a sole nod but then over-performs slightly with the HFPA and no one really knows why. Almost like The Mauritanian (although of course BTH will have a lot more critical support than whatever Foster and Rahim had).
Interesting. Brian Tyree Henry makes a lot of sense for the GG and Lawrence coming along with him is not unlikely since they love her and the performance is pretty solid.
But Williams/Deadwyler/Ackie seems too GG not to be nominated. Even though I’m not confident Blanchett will win, she will definitely be nominated. The only person Lawrence could replace would be Viola Davis. I don’t know if she would have enough support for that, but she was presenting Best Film at the Gotham yesterday, so it looks like she’s willing to participate in the campaign. I think there’s a chance Carey Mulligan is nominated here and not in Supporting.Nothing is set in stone for Blanchett, save perhaps AACTA (and even there Robbie can theoretically win). BAFTA has some interesting choices and despite Cate having long relationship with them, it wouldn’t be out of ordinary for her to lose to someone like Yeoh or Deadwyler or even Williams.
As for Globes, Blanchett’s biggest competition are Deadwyler and Williams. Unless, of course, Globes go totally chaotic and award someone like Ackie, Davis or Lawrence. On the other hand, Blanchett has been nominated what, 10-12 times? won three, once for a very artistic performance – “I am Not There”. They have also added FIPRESCI members and I can see them being more receptive of Blanchett’s performance. She may not be set in stone, but she is a clear frontrunner in her category. If we see TAR getting multiple nominations and Hoss even getting in for supporting, then it’ll be clearer how Blanchett stands with HFPA.
If we are inclined to see Yeoh as winner, I think for her is better to have Blanchett win Globe Drama. It would equalize the terrain for the two, put the end to other newcomers and create “Yeoh vs Blanchett” race, hence stopping dissipation of votes. Others would have to satisfy with nomination and that’s that. Yeoh then wins SAG, Blanchett probably CCA and BAFTA, and ultimately Yeoh wins Oscar. This race will be much simpler when we find out who the Top 2 are. Globes would be perfect place to clear the air.
I’m more surprised there’s no buzz around Jennifer Lawrence for her performance in Causeway. I low key thought that she has a good shoot with dat role, especially since critics reviews are mostly positive and mixed 🤔
Nothing is set in stone for Blanchett, save perhaps AACTA (and even there Robbie can theoretically win). BAFTA has some interesting choices and despite Cate having long relationship with them, it wouldn’t be out of ordinary for her to lose to someone like Yeoh or Deadwyler or even Williams. As for Globes, Blanchett’s biggest competition are Deadwyler and Williams. Unless, of course, Globes go totally chaotic and award someone like Ackie, Davis or Lawrence. On the other hand, Blanchett has been nominated what, 10-12 times? won three, once for a very artistic performance – “I am Not There”. They have also added FIPRESCI members and I can see them being more receptive of Blanchett’s performance. She may not be set in stone, but she is a clear frontrunner in her category. If we see TAR getting multiple nominations and Hoss even getting in for supporting, then it’ll be clearer how Blanchett stands with HFPA. If we are inclined to see Yeoh as winner, I think for her is better to have Blanchett win Globe Drama. It would equalize the terrain for the two, put the end to other newcomers and create “Yeoh vs Blanchett” race, hence stopping dissipation of votes. Others would have to satisfy with nomination and that’s that. Yeoh then wins SAG, Blanchett probably CCA and BAFTA, and ultimately Yeoh wins Oscar. This race will be much simpler when we find out who the Top 2 are. Globes would be perfect place to clear the air.
Although I’m Not There is a rather artistic project, Blanchett still gives a performance with aspects that can be objectively evaluated. She’s playing a man so it’s a physically transformative performance, she uses an accent, she’s playing a very famous figure, and there’s a recreation of historical scenes that brings that feeling of perfect mimicry. And it’s a very expressive performance, which we know the Globes are fond of.
Given that the last three winners in this category are Nicole Kidman, Andra Day, and Renée Zellweger, all three with pretty average movies playing entertainment industry legends, Ackie winning is about the least chaotic thing that could happen.
As for these FIPRESCI guest voters, we don’t know who they are, if the HFPA chose people who are in line with the style of things they like or if they chose people to really diversify their thinking, but we won’t know how this addition will impact until the nominations are announced. For now it’s safest to assume the Globes will do what they always do.I agree that Blanchett doesn’t feel like a slam dunk for the Globe. Whilst I don’t think she can win I wonder if we’re underestimating Jennifer Lawrence at the Globes. Not only do they seem to like her a lot but I get the feeling that Causeway could be the film that everyone talks about as a contender for a sole nod but then over-performs slightly with the HFPA and no one really knows why. Almost like The Mauritanian (although of course BTH will have a lot more critical support than whatever Foster and Rahim had).
Apple. That’s why. A distributor with deep pockets who only has one other awards prospect which is mired in “controversy” (i.e., Emancipation). Something many of the other actresses do not have.
If Babylon’s box office is as poor as it is currently projected to be, will Paramount continue to put money behind the campaign for it? Will Searchlight pour money into Empire of Light to get Olivia Colman the nomination? I think it’s unlikely. And I really think Netflix is done with Blonde.
I mean even when The Morning Show got bad reviews for its second season, Apple still got Emmy nominations for it. Reese still got nominated. Jennifer Aniston still won the SAG. And Causeway has good reviews! There was a FYC ad in a trade magazine that legit had Apple pushing for Causeway to get in the Best Picture Top 10. They are pushing the movie and Lawrence is showing up for it a lot.
Jennifer Lawrence deserves to be nominated. She is amazing in Causeway and gives the best performance since Winter’s Bone.
I hope Apple doesn’t forget Causeway.
I really think Yeoh gets GG Comedy, CC, Indie Spirit and SAG.
Best Actress, Winner: Cate Blanchett #TÁR #SCAwards pic.twitter.com/fyL3HBaQaM
— Sunset Circle Awards (@SunsetAwards) November 30, 2022
Runner-up is Danielle Deadwyler.
If you add Lawrence, who would you remove from the 5 you have listed?
It’s a tough one. I guess either Ackie or Davis? It goes without saying that Blanchett is obviously safe and I don’t think the HFPA will want to skip over Michelle Williams in a Steven Spielberg movie that’s the current frontrunner for Best Picture and Danielle Deadwyler with a critically buzzed performance in such a socially relevant drama.
Admittedly the muted noise around Ackie a month before I Wanna Dance with Somebody‘s release is making me a lot more nervous about her chances than I was before although I think what could help her is that if she’s really that good (and the film around her isn’t a total dumpster fire) she has the exact type of role the HFPA have historically tended to go head over heels here. I’m not sure if the same can be said for Davis seeing their apathy towards genre productions on both the television and film sides historically (although the influx of new voters could give her a boost she otherwise wouldn’t have had were she competing for this film three years ago).
Solidarity with the striking writers. Pay them the wages they are owed for bringing us the content we are all on here because of!
Runner-up is Danielle Deadwyler.
Sorry didn’t see runner up, it wasn’t my intention to ignore.
Danielle Deadwyler will be the only actress in the Best Actress category this year. Sorry i don't make the rules #TillMovie #Till pic.twitter.com/39hOJntLXH
— HoliJay Greetings® 🎄 (@DiedInTheSnap) November 23, 2022
Best Actor : Cillian Murphy
Best Actress : Annette Bening Kate Winslet Fantasia Barrino
Best Actor : Cillian Murphy
Best Actress : Annette Bening Kate Winslet Fantasia Barrino
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