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TÁR also has a 7.9 on IMDb. It seems like the basics are eating the movie.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.TÁR also has a 7.9 on IMDb. It seems like the basics are eating the movie.
Exactly… In comparison:
Cate Blanchett Best Actress movies:
Blue Jasmine: 7,3
Carol 7,2Last Best Actress winners:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye: 6,6
Nomadland: 7,3
Judy: 6,8
The Favourite: 7,5
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 8,1
La La Land: 8,0
Room: 8,1
Still Alice: 7,5Even if it falls with thousands of new people rating it, it will still be above 7 which, for Best Actress vehicle is rather solid.
Spreading the Love: Oscars 2023
Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Director: The Daniels
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Angela BassettI think the 5th slot for a Best Actress Oscar nomination is still incredibly wide open between Davis, Robbie, Ackie, Colman, and Lawrence, and that right now, Lawrence might be the best prediction still available with 100 to 1 odds in ANY category.
Brian Tyree Henry has a slightly easier path, but SAG seems so gettable for both of them if Apple campaigns well. They kind of need to land there to make their case considering how long Causeway has been out.
but almost too subtle, particularly for this season given.
This is actually why I think we could be underestimating her. After becoming one of the biggest stars on the planet, getting 3 Oscar nominations and wins for David O. Russell films (one of which, Joy, was quite mixed received and a film whose only nod was for her performance) and taking a small break from acting Lawrence has come back with a film that returns to her indie roots that led to her breakout in Winter’s Bone. With that element of nostalgia along with the fact that Causeway is a passion project that she’s produced (and has gone through notorious production delays and lengthy reshoots) I can see there being a desire within the actors branch to throw her a welcome back nomination.
I find lone nominations tricky to predict because it’s so hard for a performer to essentially come from behind unless they’re a venerated Oscar veteran (like Close in Hillbilly Elegy or Bates in Richard Jewell) so if Henry is indeed happening in the supporting actor race I really just don’t see why Lawrence should be so far off. Surely she should be ahead of De Armas in a polarising arthouse movie and Colman in a panned movie in the predictions centre odds.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Spencer is far more inaccessible and divisive than TÁR please lmao. Kristen, an already divisive actress, was literally eating pearls and used pliers to self-harm. The film could be very triggering, especially when it’s in regards to an icon like Princess Diana. TÁR is arthouse but it’s not unwatchable or anything like that. It’s rather straightforward, with the downside it can be slow and uninteresting to individuals, not downright triggering. TÁR also has better reception than Spencer in every metric, audience and critics. Spencer especially took a tank in reception after it left Venice, the same can’t be said for TÁR (again box office doesn’t matter for it). I get that y’all are trolls and your one account for this is to drag TÁR but your overuse of comparing it to Spencer is tiresome.
I agree with everything you said. But the defending lol Tar getting compared to Spencer? Spencer is a critically acclaimed Oscar nominated movie. It’s not like it’s getting compared to glitter starring Mariah Carey or Gigi with Jennifer Lopez.
I don’t know if I am overthinking it but from my perspective, Lawrence’s movie being quiet is in her favor. In a year where so many different awards movies are getting what seems like high levels of bad press either due to the film itself (Blonde), or the person involved with the film (Emancipation, Amsterdam, She Said, Babylon), or the film getting bad reviews (Bardo, Empire of Light), or the film outright bombing (The Fabelmans, She Said, etc.) Then yes, Causeway is quiet. Avoiding scandal. Chugging along.
Lawrence doesn’t even need the public to see her face, she doesn’t need to promote the movie anymore than she already did, she just needs to go to the parties and be seen by the voters.
Coda was released in August of 2021 and at this point last year, most people forgot the movie existed. It still won Best Picture. Apple doesn’t need the general public to care about the movie.
We always see breakout support performances get nominated over leads.
Not as lone nominees though. When Troy Kotsur got nominated and won last year he was in the Best Picture winning film. When Yuh-jung Youn did the same Steven Yeun came along for the ride.
The only performers to get nominated in either supporting category these past 5 years without their films getting nominated for anything else or factoring into the conversation in other major categories were Plummer and Bates both of whom were venerated Academy Award winners. Even last year after making all the precursors and having strong critical support behind her Ruth Negga ended up missing out on nominations morning in favour of Jessie Buckley and Judi Dench in films that got other major nominations. Seeing as Henry has never been nominated before I just find it hard to see him getting in without Causeway getting nominated for something else and Jennifer Lawrence coming along makes the most sense right now out of any other nominations the film could get imo.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Clayton Davis predicts Deadwyler to win at NYFCC tomorrow.
Clayton Davis Lead Actress Prediction:
1. Danielle Deadwyler, “Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing)
2. Cate Blanchett, “Tár” (Focus Features)
3. Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
4. Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
5. Dale Dickey, “A Love Song” (Bleecker Street)
Deadwyler is a solid pick for NYFCC… I am honestly not sure about Williams – I would put both Tang Wei and Michelle Yeoh above her. Blanchett probably remains the best guess. That said, they are difficult to predict, especially with Lady Gaga last year.
I don’t remember who was the last NYFCC winner to have also won an Oscar. I think it’s been a while.
Spreading the Love: Oscars 2023
Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Director: The Daniels
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Angela BassettNot as lone nominees though. When Troy Kotsur got nominated and won last year he was in the Best Picture winning film. When Yuh-jung Youn did the same Steven Yeun came along for the ride. The only performers to get nominated in either supporting category these past 5 years without their films getting nominated for anything else or factoring into the conversation in other major categories were Plummer and Bates both of whom were venerated Academy Award winners. Even last year after making all the precursors and having strong critical support behind her Ruth Negga ended up missing out on nominations morning in favour of Jessie Buckley and Judi Dench in films that got other major nominations. Seeing as Henry has never been nominated before I just find it hard to see him getting in without Causeway getting nominated for something else and Jennifer Lawrence coming along makes the most sense right now out of any other nominations the film could get imo.
This is exactly what I have been thinking from the start. At first it seemed like neither would get in. The biggest concern for this movie was that it wouldn’t get a campaign. But now it seems like Henry really has a clean shot and it just doesn’t make sense for him to get nominated by himself. She is the bigger star, the lead of the movie, the producer, and the prior winner. It’s just obvious that if he has a clean shot, then she must also have a decent chance. The Academy voters that enjoyed the movie enough to write Henry’s name on the ballot, will likely also be writing down Lawrence’s.
Clayton Davis predicts Deadwyler to win at NYFCC tomorrow. Clayton Davis Lead Actress Prediction: 1. Danielle Deadwyler, “Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing) 2. Cate Blanchett, “Tár” (Focus Features) 3. Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) 4. Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) 5. Dale Dickey, “A Love Song” (Bleecker Street)
He’s also predicting Tom Cruise to win Best Actor at the NYFCC; as for his Deadwyler prediction, that might belong in the “even a stopped clock is correct twice a day” file.
The topic ‘2023 Oscars: Best Actress (Part 14)’ is closed to new replies.
