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2023 Oscars: Best Actress (Part 14)

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    #1205174366
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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1205174374

    Spencer is far more inaccessible and divisive than TÁR please lmao. Kristen, an already divisive actress, was literally eating pearls and used pliers to self-harm. The film could be very triggering, especially when it’s in regards to an icon like Princess Diana. TÁR is arthouse but it’s not unwatchable or anything like that. It’s rather straightforward, with the downside it can be slow and uninteresting to individuals, not downright triggering. TÁR also has better reception than Spencer in every metric, audience and critics. Spencer especially took a tank in reception after it left Venice, the same can’t be said for TÁR (again box office doesn’t matter for it). I get that y’all are trolls and your one account for this is to drag TÁR but your overuse of comparing it to Spencer is tiresome.


    estrelas
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    #1205174382

    TÁR also has a 7.9 on IMDb. It seems like the basics are eating the movie.


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    Mladen
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    #1205174407

    TÁR also has a 7.9 on IMDb. It seems like the basics are eating the movie.

    Exactly… In comparison:

    Cate Blanchett Best Actress movies:
    Blue Jasmine: 7,3
    Carol 7,2

    Last Best Actress winners:
    The Eyes of Tammy Faye: 6,6
    Nomadland: 7,3
    Judy: 6,8
    The Favourite: 7,5
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 8,1
    La La Land: 8,0
    Room: 8,1
    Still Alice: 7,5

    Even if it falls with thousands of new people rating it, it will still be above 7 which, for Best Actress vehicle is rather solid.

    Spreading the Love: Oscars 2023
    Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Best Director: The Daniels
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett


    kamila
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    Dec 6th, 2021
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    #1205174412

    I think the 5th slot for a Best Actress Oscar nomination is still incredibly wide open between Davis, Robbie, Ackie, Colman, and Lawrence, and that right now, Lawrence might be the best prediction still available with 100 to 1 odds in ANY category.

    Brian Tyree Henry has a slightly easier path, but SAG seems so gettable for both of them if Apple campaigns well. They kind of need to land there to make their case considering how long Causeway has been out.


    wolfali
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    #1205174436

    but almost too subtle, particularly for this season given.

    This is actually why I think we could be underestimating her. After becoming one of the biggest stars on the planet, getting 3 Oscar nominations and wins for David O. Russell films (one of which, Joy, was quite mixed received and a film whose only nod was for her performance) and taking a small break from acting Lawrence has come back with a film that returns to her indie roots that led to her breakout in Winter’s Bone. With that element of nostalgia along with the fact that Causeway is a passion project that she’s produced (and has gone through notorious production delays and lengthy reshoots) I can see there being a desire within the actors branch to throw her a welcome back nomination.

    I find lone nominations tricky to predict because it’s so hard for a performer to essentially come from behind unless they’re a venerated Oscar veteran (like Close in Hillbilly Elegy or Bates in Richard Jewell) so if Henry is indeed happening in the supporting actor race I really just don’t see why Lawrence should be so far off. Surely she should be ahead of De Armas in a polarising arthouse movie and Colman in a panned movie in the predictions centre odds.

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


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    Ash
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    #1205174462

    Spencer is far more inaccessible and divisive than TÁR please lmao. Kristen, an already divisive actress, was literally eating pearls and used pliers to self-harm. The film could be very triggering, especially when it’s in regards to an icon like Princess Diana. TÁR is arthouse but it’s not unwatchable or anything like that. It’s rather straightforward, with the downside it can be slow and uninteresting to individuals, not downright triggering. TÁR also has better reception than Spencer in every metric, audience and critics. Spencer especially took a tank in reception after it left Venice, the same can’t be said for TÁR (again box office doesn’t matter for it). I get that y’all are trolls and your one account for this is to drag TÁR but your overuse of comparing it to Spencer is tiresome.

    I agree with everything you said. But the defending lol Tar getting compared to Spencer? Spencer is a critically acclaimed Oscar nominated movie. It’s not like it’s getting compared to glitter starring Mariah Carey or Gigi with Jennifer Lopez.


    moonshineandmollyxo
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    Aug 23rd, 2022
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    #1205174465

    I don’t know if I am overthinking it but from my perspective, Lawrence’s movie being quiet is in her favor. In a year where so many different awards movies are getting what seems like high levels of bad press either due to the film itself (Blonde), or the person involved with the film (Emancipation, Amsterdam, She Said, Babylon), or the film getting bad reviews (Bardo, Empire of Light), or the film outright bombing (The Fabelmans, She Said, etc.) Then yes, Causeway is quiet. Avoiding scandal. Chugging along.

    Lawrence doesn’t even need the public to see her face, she doesn’t need to promote the movie anymore than she already did, she just needs to go to the parties and be seen by the voters.

    Coda was released in August of 2021 and at this point last year, most people forgot the movie existed. It still won Best Picture. Apple doesn’t need the general public to care about the movie.


    wolfali
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    #1205174470

    We always see breakout support performances get nominated over leads.

    Not as lone nominees though. When Troy Kotsur got nominated and won last year he was in the Best Picture winning film. When Yuh-jung Youn did the same Steven Yeun came along for the ride.

    The only performers to get nominated in either supporting category these past 5 years without their films getting nominated for anything else or factoring into the conversation in other major categories were Plummer and Bates both of whom were venerated Academy Award winners. Even last year after making all the precursors and having strong critical support behind her Ruth Negga ended up missing out on nominations morning in favour of Jessie Buckley and Judi Dench in films that got other major nominations. Seeing as Henry has never been nominated before I just find it hard to see him getting in without Causeway getting nominated for something else and Jennifer Lawrence coming along makes the most sense right now out of any other nominations the film could get imo.

    FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


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    Aaron Kalloo
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    #1205174509

    Clayton Davis predicts Deadwyler to win at NYFCC tomorrow.

    Clayton Davis Lead Actress Prediction:

    1. Danielle Deadwyler, “Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing)

    2. Cate Blanchett, “Tár” (Focus Features)

    3. Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

    4. Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

    5. Dale Dickey, “A Love Song” (Bleecker Street)


    Mladen
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    #1205174522

    Deadwyler is a solid pick for NYFCC… I am honestly not sure about Williams – I would put both Tang Wei and Michelle Yeoh above her. Blanchett probably remains the best guess. That said, they are difficult to predict, especially with Lady Gaga last year.

    I don’t remember who was the last NYFCC winner to have also won an Oscar. I think it’s been a while.

    Spreading the Love: Oscars 2023
    Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Best Director: The Daniels
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett

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