November 25, 2022 at 11:39 pm #1205166963
a) Babylon hasn’t been theatrically released so we don’t know how much money it will make b) Babylon also has a ton of built in baitiness.
Babylon is almost a guaranteed box office flop.
I’ve talked multiple times about my doubts on Yeoh getting a nomination so I don’t feel the need to rehash that. As for Robbie all we have is social media reactions on Babylon, which are indeed divisive overall but largely positive on her performance, we don’t know how the industry will react to it yet. Divisive films like Bohemian Rhapsody and Les Misérables have been embraced as top acting contenders by the Academy in recent years. You don’t have to think Margot Robbie could be a top contender, but the idea is by no means inconceivable.
Robbie has garnered positive notices, but they certainly aren’t as high as Blanchett or Yeoh’s. So I don’t k ơ how you have Robbie higher than Yeoh or Blanchett.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossNovember 25, 2022 at 11:53 pm #1205166965This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.November 26, 2022 at 12:13 am #1205166973
I fully expect Blanchett and Yeoh to do much better with critic awards than Robbie, but the Academy rarely chooses the most acclaimed performance. Robbie is a well liked prior nominee with a flashy role playing a famous classic Hollywood actress, it fits the bill of the kind of performance that consistently performs well at the Oscars. I do think Babylon being so divisive will ultimately cost her the win, but I’m sticking with her as a nominee for now.
Although the character is inspired by an amalgamation of some classic Hollywood actresses, Nellie LaRoy is still a fictional character. We can compare her to Clara Bow, but apparently the film only uses her traumatic past as a backdrop for LaRoy’s chaoticness.
And as for the polarizing nature of Babylon, I don’t think it’s such an apt comparison for Les Misérables and Bohemian Rhapsody. Not everyone liked these last two examples, but that was mostly due to a lack of inspiration and artistic identity. The reason for the criticism for Babylon seems to come mostly from its ambition to create shocking material and the apparent mess it caused in the film. Robbie is still in a good position to receive a nomination, but definitely not above Yeoh or Blanchett. But it’s your right to predict whoever you want.November 26, 2022 at 12:23 am #1205166979This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.November 26, 2022 at 12:40 am #1205166987
I actually still thought the character was explicitly Clara Bow, good to know it’s not. I personally think she’s ahead of Yeoh and in about the same position as Blanchett, but I do understand the hesitation from others on her.
I partially understand your hesitation with Yeoh, I’m pretty wary of predicting a win for her even though she would be my choice.
But EEAAO has proven itself so many times and continues to receive attention months after release. Yeoh is the main pillar and without her this movie would not make sense, I really don’t think anyone else would deliver the same mastery as her with this character.
It would be a beautiful victory and it’s been a while since the Oscars have had the chance to award something so impactful. But I understand your point of view.November 26, 2022 at 1:48 am #1205167008
wow…can’t believe people dont like Danielle Deadwyler’s performance here, i would say her acting in Till was superb than Cate tbh, you guys should watch court scene, how she managed her anger that was awesome…she brings the issue on the table, thats why i think shes gonna get nomination this year
for me Yeoh & Deadwyler are Locked while Blanchett got some help from festival honor which is her film isn’t good enough with good performance ….im sticking with these there
Still hoping Ana DeArmas got nom also, shes great as Marilyn tbh, with intents and demanding performance, on top of that how she did nude scene was fantastic. i would say shes brave as an actress at this point….
1. Ana De Armas is not happening. That ship has sailed. The movie is dead and it should stay that way.
2. Let’s not confuse how much we like the performance with its chances with Academy. I know that Tang Wei was brilliant and I would have picked her over Williams any given day, but I know that is not how Academy works. Same with Mia Goth, who would be perfect for 5th slot. But her visibility and visibility of Davis, Colman or Robbie are incomparable.
So, when it comes to Deadwyler, I think only few here didn’t like her performance. I don’t consider it better than Blanchett, nor do I think she is lock. Blanchett is in the only highbrow movie of the year, a movie that is getting significant awards across the independent scenes, and Blanchett is, at this point, more than safe for nomination as her film is getting into Best Picture, plus several other categories. Deadwyler on the other hand is the sole nominee of her movie, she is a newcomer and there are contesting narratives to her victory. I doubt she will miss, I don’t see it happening, but given the exposure Blanchett and Yeoh have been receiving lately, I doubt she is safer than those two.
3. Personal preferences are not up to debate, but there is no objective way we can say Blanchett “isn’t good in a good movie”. This is a performance of universal acclaim, with a commanding presence and it does seem that people like it more and more with streaming option. If Blanchett wins, it won’t be undeserving, no matter what anyone’s preference may be. She is simply THAT good.
Spreading the Love: Oscars 2023
Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Director: The Daniels
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Angela BassettNovember 26, 2022 at 2:13 am #1205167016
I wasn’t a fan of Danielle Deadwyler performance as well. It’s also a stereotypical performance which will hurt her when it comes to be taken seriously for the Oscar.November 26, 2022 at 2:16 am #1205167018
Huns, Michelle Williams performance in the Fablemans was bizarre and not her best.
1. Cate Blanchett- Tar
2. Margot Robbie- Babylon
3. Michelle Yeah- Everything everywhere all at once.
4. Danielle Deadwyler- Till
5. Michelle Williams- The Fablemans.November 26, 2022 at 7:31 am #1205167123
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at OnceNovember 26, 2022 at 7:41 am #1205167131
I’m still in doubt about Williams winning. Will she even make BAFTA? And before telling me it doesn’t matter, I disagree. Some of your competitors getting nominated there and one of them winning could definitely cost you the Oscar. I’m going with whoever wins the BAFTA be it Blanchett or Yeoh.November 26, 2022 at 8:19 am #1205167155This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.November 26, 2022 at 8:32 am #1205167164
Not really shocking, It’s not a film made for general audiences, a 3 hour film full of extravaganza won’t be everyone’s cup of tea. The studio’s campaign will probably focus more on the industry watching than public. Also, let’s be honest, most films are bombing this year.November 26, 2022 at 8:34 am #1205167170This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.November 26, 2022 at 9:14 am #1205167196
I don’t really agree, because if it bombs this hard, why would Paramount spend money on a campaign?
Babylon is sill a threat for tech categories like Make-Up, Costumes, Production Design and Score and even when the reception is meh about it, there seems to be a passionate group for the film that could help it for a Picture nod especially because the last 2-3 slots are quite open.
While Top Gun is better recieved and looks great for a Picture nod, it will likely be only a tech player like Babylon could be as well.
Why wouldn’t Paramount campaing it anyway? Getting nominations is still something Studios care about.
GG and CC will show if the film is DOA or not.November 26, 2022 at 9:34 am #1205167211
I honestly, won’t change my prediction for Yeoh, despite what happens at the precursors. I’m betting that if EEOA gets a lot of love the queen will come along for the ride. If I’m wrong then w/e.Not now
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