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2023 Oscars: Best Actress (Part 7)

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    ejaru1810
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    I seriously don’t see Williams being a factor in the race. The nomination is a lock tho.

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    Uri Urusha
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    If no other surprise happens, i see Michelle Williams winning.

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    DrewN92
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    Excuse me, No. Rose wasn’t a Lead character in Fences. In the original play, Mary Alice was considered supporting during the 1987 Tony’s and Viola in 2010 went Lead because she was winning in either category. The Drama Desk Awards also considered them both (Davis and Alice) supporting. So her placement during the Oscar in Supporting was the right choice for the character. Could have she beated Stone? Maybe, but the chances of Davis going empty handed were also strong.

    I mean this is always open for debate, you’re certainly entitled to your own opinion. I love Viola, but to me she is co-lead. Yes Denzel had more screentime, but she had 53:32 minutes of screentime which is quite substantial.

    Also, Tony/Drama Desk nomination category is completely irrelevant to a movie adaptation and subsequent awards bodies.

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    Uri Urusha
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    I also think this oscar will be so wildly unpredictable that film twitter,pundits r gonna look so stupid.the actress race is the tip of the iceberg.

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    Rachel615
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    Excuse me, No.

    Rose wasn’t a Lead character in Fences. In the original play, Mary Alice was considered supporting during the 1987 Tony’s and Viola in 2010 went Lead because she was winning in either category. The Drama Desk Awards also considered them both (Davis and Alice) supporting.
    So her placement during the Oscar in Supporting was the right choice for the character. Could have she beated Stone? Maybe, but the chances of Davis going empty handed were also strong.

    Dissertations could be written as to whether Rose is a co-lead or supporting character in Fences, and arguments can be made for either placement, but FYI, I’ve read that producers arranged for Mary Alice to be nominated in the Featured (Supporting) Actress in a Play category for a Tony in 1987 so as to avoid having her compete against the widely expected Lead Actress winner, Linda Lavin in Broadway Bound, and that when the revival of Fences was staged in 2010, it was decided that Viola, who was by then a major star who had previously won a Tony for August Wilson’s King Headley II, and who had recently been nominated for an Oscar for Doubt, should compete in “the more appropriate” category of Lead Actress, and that the Drama Desk nominations, which were announced before the Tony nominations in 2010, (and about which producers care far less about than the Tonys), had simply relied on the categorization that had been used in 1987, rather than reconsider the placement issue.

    (An good argument can be made that Mary Alice was the victim of race discrimination in that she wasn’t nominated as a Lead Actress in 1987– all 4 nominated lead actresses were white— but it’s also very possible that the primary motivation for placing her in the “featured” category really was to avoid running against Lavin, who was a commercial draw returning to Broadway after having spent 8 years as the lead of the hit TV series, Alice.

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    Lydia 3rd Oscar TAR
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    Meanwhile someone else wins all the precursors and gains momentum in Supporting. Will that Oscar still be such a sure thing even if she ends up back in there?

    Williams may also end up not nominated at all because of the vote split between lead and supporting

    2023 Oscar
    Best Picture: The Way of The Wind
    Best Director: Decision to Leave
    Best Actress: TAR
    Best Actor: The Whale
    Best Supporting Actress: The Whale
    Best Supporting Actor: Poor Things

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