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It’s no coincidence that Michelle Williams is going for the Lead Actress Oscar when that’s the one acting category a Spielberg movie has yet to win.
Caitriona Balfe must have received a lot of votes for best actress and with that she was snubbed, the studio is preventing Michelle Williams from splitting the votes.
I believe the studio was afraid that Michelle Williams would meet the same fate as Caitriona Balfe.
Again, I wouldn’t really agree with this. Michelle Williams i’m unequivocally a lead in The Fablemans, while Balfe had the screentime that was borderline Lead. The category placement for Williams is more focused on thr nature of the character she is playing and general sentiments surrounding the impact her character has on the events of the film—and to a certain extent, reality.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossAnd even if that’s not the argument you use, it’s still not a good comparison because Balfe was usurped by Dench. Who would’ve done that to Williams?
Once there was only Dark. If you ask me, the Light's winning.
I’m predicting Naomi Ackie to miss in spite of predicting her for months, but after Michelle Williams was announced to moving to lead I have to drop her. Ackie’s film missing festivals kills a lot of buzz for her film and it’s possible the film won’t do well at the box office to justify her nomination. I also think critics will completely annihilate the film. It’s difficult to drop her though since Ackie arguably has the baitiest role in the season in a singer-biopic. I don’t think the Hudson and Ackie comparisons are fair since while Hudson’s role was baity, she was upstaged by other biopics from the likes of Tammy Faye and Lucille Ball. No one in the current season is playing a notable figure in a biopic aside from Danielle Deadwyler playing Emmette Till’s mother (though I would argue Whitney Houston is more well-known), so this gives Ackie a huge advantage. We’ll have to see how this season unfolds, but I believe it’s too premature to write Ackie off.
Wait, people still don’t understand why Gaga/Hudson/Haim missed? MGM was pushing all 3. That’s all that is. You can spread yourself too thin. Sony had only Cruz and they almost missed (remember Cruz flopping with precursors?) but they got her in. I’m not sure who else is IWDWS’s Actress push but if it’s only Ackie than she has a good shot. Some late breaker almost always gets in cause some early frontrunners and challengers lose steam for whatever reason (including how Gaga and her MGM brethren got left out).
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Within a day of being in the predictions center as a Lead Actress Michelle Williams has gone from 100/1 odds to 16/1. Meanwhile Carey Mulligan is down to 100/1.
I wonder if Mulligan’s odds would be higher if/when it’s announced that she is running in Supporting.
I don’t think genre will be an issue for Viola Davis considering she is very safe to get a SAG nomination, which might be all she needs for an Oscar nomination.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.The Woman King also has a lot more traditional elements vs something like Mad Max. On top of all the badass fight scenes Davis gets to do the witty palace intrigue, the characater based melodrama, the rousing inspirational speeches that Charlize just didn’t get to do in Mad Max because it wasn’t that type of movie.
I don’t think genre will be an issue for Viola Davis considering she is very safe to get a SAG nomination, which might be all she needs for an Oscar nomination.
I think that Viola is likely to be nominated but it may be useful to remember that of the 10,669 AMPAS members, “only” 1,430 are in the actors branch. I sometimes think we overestimate the influence of SAG awards and SAG voters when making Oscar predictions.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.I think that Viola is likely to be nominated but it may be useful to remember that of the 10,669 AMPAS members, “only” 1,430 are in the actors branch. I sometimes think we overestimate the influence of SAG awards and SAG voters when making Oscar predictions.
I’m aware of this? SAG isn’t the end be all, but it’s certainly a strong barometer for a contender’s chances at the Oscars. SAG correctly aligned with the eventual acting winners this year as well as matching with the Best Actor lineup two years in a row.
To articulate my point more clearly, a SAG nomination for Davis would be highly reflective of her Oscar prospects because if she misses SAG, she certainly won’t make it to the Oscars. Usually performers in SAG make it in if they are in films that are embraced by the Oscars, which The Woman King looks to be (At worst, it only gets a few crafts nominations).
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossWait, people still don’t understand why Gaga/Hudson/Haim missed? MGM was pushing all 3. That’s all that is. You can spread yourself too thin. Sony had only Cruz and they almost missed (remember Cruz flopping with precursors?) but they got her in. I’m not sure who else is IWDWS’s Actress push but if it’s only Ackie than she has a good shot. Some late breaker almost always gets in cause some early frontrunners and challengers lose steam for whatever reason (including how Gaga and her MGM brethren got left out).
I don’t think it was *just* the fact that MGM was pushing all 3. Gaga was a campaign juggernaut. She was absolutely everywhere. People didn’t like House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, or Respect enough. They didn’t pull nominations that could’ve been on the table like Costumes for Gucci, Supporting for Cooper, or Song for Respect. They had populist support which is why they overperformed at SAG, but once you have the big tent voting body of AMPAS, they got ditched. Parallel Mothers was late-breaking but the film itself was very much loved.
Stewart was the only sole nominee last season, and commanding that level of passion to get in with nothing else will be difficult. I think IWDWS will need to show some potential in categories like Makeup & Hairstyling and Costumes because I don’t see Ackie getting in on her own.
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