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2023 Oscars: Best Actress (Part 8)

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    kamila
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    #1205094804

    To articulate my point more clearly, a SAG nomination for Davis would be highly reflective of her Oscar prospects because if she misses SAG, she certainly won’t make it to the Oscars. Usually performers in SAG make it in if they are in films that are embraced by the Oscars, which The Woman King looks to be (At worst, it only gets a few crafts nominations).

    This is why I felt DiCaprio was over after SAG last year. He’s the type that really has no excuse to miss.

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    Rachel615
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    #1205094816

    I’m aware of this? SAG isn’t the end be all, but it’s certainly a strong barometer for a contender’s chances at the Oscars. SAG correctly aligned with the eventual acting winners this year as well as matching with the Best Actor lineup two years in a row. To articulate my point more clearly, a SAG nomination for Davis would be highly reflective of her Oscar prospects because if she misses SAG, she certainly won’t make it to the Oscars. Usually performers in SAG make it in if they are in films that are embraced by the Oscars, which The Woman King looks to be (At worst, it only gets a few crafts nominations).

    I’m not disagreeing with you. As I said, I think Viola will be nominated, but I’m not as confident as some others that The Woman King, which I really enjoyed, will make it into BP— there are more potential blockbuster/popcorn/action type movies that have a chance at a BP nomination this year than there have been in recent years, and it seems unlikely that The Woman King, TG:Maverick, Glass Onion, Avatar: TWOW, Black Panther:WF and Elvis will all get in. Also, it remains striking, and somewhat disturbing, that within the last decade, Viola has won two SAG awards for lead film roles for which she did not wind up winning an Oscar. My only point was that we should be reflective before relying too heavily on SAG results when making predictions. They are, as you seem to agree, useful but not dispositive.

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    laslo
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    #1205094839

    Rachel just reminded me that Viola managed to snatch the SAG from Meryl Streep – who had a Weinstein campaign – in 2011. Legendary behavior.

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    Anna Delvey
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    #1205094855

    Rachel just reminded me that Viola managed to snatch the SAG from Meryl Streep – who had a Weinstein campaign – in 2011. Legendary behavior.

    Has not lost an individual award since Doubt, has won for five different projects across TV and film, including lead actress for a 20-something minute performance in Ma Rainey. Legendary behavior indeed.

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    Milk Money
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    #1205094859

    Rachel just reminded me that Viola managed to snatch the SAG from Meryl Streep – who had a Weinstein campaign – in 2011. Legendary behavior.

    To be fair, Meryl had just won SAG a few years before for Doubt.

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    Selma Linda
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    #1205094887

    To be fair, Meryl had just won SAG a few years before for Doubt.

    And The Help was a hit with the actors.

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    wolfali
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    #1205094891

    Rachel just reminded me that Viola managed to snatch the SAG from Meryl Streep – who had a Weinstein campaign – in 2011. Legendary behavior.

    Should have won the Oscar too.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    B.A.P.S
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    #1205094974

    If Viola makes Globes and SAG, she’ll be a lock for that nomination. SAG seems very likely and there are many open slots in the Drama category at the Globes seeing that Margot and Yeoh goes Comedy. So with GG and SAG, I think she gets in even if the film doesn’t make BP.

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    Selma Linda
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    #1205094985

    I believe Viola is being nominated, The Woman King is being very well received and I can see Thuso Mbedu being nominated as well.

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    Selma Linda
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    #1205094990

    I think Jennifer Lawrence chances are gone. Causeway is a very small film and with this big competition, I don’t think it has much of a chance.

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    jamjonesjames
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    #1205095118

    I think Viola is a lock for a nomination. No one has given me reason to believe she’s not other than her film is genre. If that’s the case Yeoh isn’t getting in either because EEAAO is even more so a genre film than The Woman King. A win is much more subjective but the way things are moving in Viola’s favor (BO, critical reception and industry support) I don’t see a scenario where she misses.

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    Rosso
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    #1205095124

    In terms of likelihood for a nomination

    1. Blanchett (buzz + Volpi + industry respect)
    2. Williams (solid reviews + well-loved by the Academy + the Spielberg acting nominee)
    3. Davis (box-office hit + likely edges out Yeoh in terms of being the “oddball” genre pick due to being a bigger name in general + solid reviews)
    4. Yeoh (the Academy is probably tempted to reward her with a welcome nomination + likely becomes the critics’ runner-up pick to Blanchett + box-office hit)
    5. Robbie (white-hot-it girl + meaty role probably + Babylon might flop though)

    6. Lawrence (Most of her nominations were because she was once the biggest star in Hollywood. With Causeway, she has to prove she is respected enough to still be in the Academy’s radar)

    Haven’t seen all of their performances besides Yeoh (and tbh not a fan of her and EEAAO in general so lol). Looking forward the most to Blanchett among the frontrunners as this is probably the most interesting she’s been since I’m Not There.

    If Yeoh manages to sneak in, she’s a threat. Davis is filler but safe regardless. Robbie has to depend on Babylon’s staying power to accelerate her momentum. Williams hasn’t been nominated in Lead for quite a while, and she’s firmly at the center of positive reception in one of the Picture frontrunners so she’s competitive.

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    FilmRoyalty
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    #1205095138

    If nominated, I think Yeoh could win.

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    Derrick Eoghan Oisín O'Callaghan
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    #1205095158

    I’m going to see The Woman King Saturday and glad it’s doing good in box office.  I, too, think Viola is a lock for Best Actress.

    Not sure yet if I want to see The Fabelmans.  I do want to see TAR since I’m hearing rave reviews about Cate Blanchett’s performance and of course, Empire of Light with Olivia Colman; though, I’m not sure if she will be a hit or miss with nominations!

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    wallflower
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    #1205095178

    Updating my current predictions (not on a particular order)

    1. Cate Blanchett

    2. Margot Robbie (she has the role everybody, just read the damn screenplay)

    3. Michelle Yeoh

    4. Michelle Williams (?)

    5. Viola Davis

    6. Danielle Deadwyler

    7. Naomi Ackie

    8. someone from a foreign movie

    And yes, I think Colman’s done.

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