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2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 1)

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    Rachel615
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    #1204955707

    The fact that Netflix is giving Bardo a longer than usual theatrical release. and it’s Oscar bait – who said KO2 was? That’s on you.

    Tightened-up Netflix looking at select special treatment for titles off the bat picks one for bait promo, one to shake the ol’ box office tree – done.

    Oh, and… It just picked up Batdo with a clear awareness of what it already has on the NFLX shelf – looks like the place has a sense there’s room for “strengthening” its Oscar hand this season.

    We’ll see. I don’t think Netflix is done with its buying spree yet, and while I readily concede that Bardo has an exceptional Director, Cinematographer and Production Designer, unlike Birdman and The Revenant, it does not have in it any major movie stars, and I’m unsure that the subject matter will capture the passion of the public or a large enough percentage of AMPAS voters; according to Netflix, the film is a “nostalgic comedy set against an epic personal journey. It chronicles the story of a renowned Mexican journalist and documentary filmmaker, who returns home and works through an existential crisis as he grapples with his identity, familial relationships, the folly of his memories as well as the past of his country. He seeks answers in his past to reconcile who he is in the present.”

    I suspect the main reason that Netflix and Scott Stuber are giving Bardo a longer than usual theatrical release has less to do with Oscar priorities and more to do with a desire to mend and/or build relations with prestige filmmakers and influential industry figures the streamer wants to work with in the future who (like most of us) care about preserving theatrical releases.

    I still think it’s too early to predict with any degree of confidence that Bardo will turn out to be Netflix’s main Oscar priority.

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    kbc
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    #1204955722

    We’ll see. I don’t think Netflix is done with its buying spree yet, and while I readily concede that Bardo has an exceptional Director, Cinematographer and Production Designer, unlike Birdman and The Revenant, it does not have in it any major movie stars, and I’m unsure that the subject matter will capture the passion of the public or a large enough percentage of AMPAS voters; according to Netflix, the film is a “nostalgic comedy set against an epic personal journey. It chronicles the story of a renowned Mexican journalist and documentary filmmaker, who returns home and works through an existential crisis as he grapples with his identity, familial relationships, the folly of his memories as well as the past of his country. He seeks answers in his past to reconcile who he is in the present.”

    I suspect the main reason that Netflix and Scott Stuber are giving Bardo a longer than usual theatrical release has less to do with Oscar priorities and more to do with a desire to mend and/or build relations with prestige filmmakers and influential industry figures the streamer wants to work with in the future who (like most of us) care about preserving theatrical releases.

    I still think it’s too early to predict with any degree of confidence that Bardo will turn out to be Netflix’s main Oscar priority.

    The signs are there that Bardo is a top priority – and I don’t think financially troubled Netflix will be on some sort of significant “buying spree” this year – now I definitely can see Rustin, Blonde, Shirley, Spaceman, White Noise, The Swimmers et al. getting the now apparently second-tier minimal theatrical/jump to streaming NFLX treatment, but with a lot less marketing/awards budget to split among them.

    [Also this is a likely further signal that Fincher’s The Killer won’t be popping up till 2023 – it seems NFLX has found the added Oscar heft it needs for this season from Inarritu, and will pocket Fincher for the next one).

    Oh, and…Yep, Bardo has No major movie stars …like CODA, Parasite, The Artist. Heck that factor didn’t stop most of Film Twitter from predicting BP for Roma.

    We’ll see indeed.😀

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    kamila
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    #1204955812

    What might save Rustin is its top-heavy producing team including Dustin Lance Black and the Obamas, who may help it stop from slipping through the cracks. That doesn’t mean that there still may not be a ceiling on how well it can do, but it has a SAG-friendly cast and I could see it being PGA-friendly too. The fact that the guild went with Tick Tick Boom and Being the Ricardos certainly works in its favor.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204955884

    The signs are there that Bardo is a top priority – and I don’t think financially troubled Netflix will be on some sort of significant “buying spree” this year – now I definitely can see Rustin, Blonde, Shirley, Spaceman, White Noise, The Swimmers et al. getting the now apparently second-tier minimal theatrical/jump to streaming NFLX treatment, but with a lot less marketing/awards budget to split among them….  Oh, and…Yep, Bardo has No major movie stars …like CODA, Parasite, The Artist. Heck that factor didn’t stop most of Film Twitter from predicting BP for Roma. We’ll see indeed.😀

    To clarify, I never said that Bardo won’t be “a” priority for Netflix; I merely questioned whether we can know at this time that it will be “the” priority for the streamer.  And of course, I never said that a film without a major movie star can’t be a studio or distributor’s main Oscar priority — of course one can– but it is more likely that a film starring one (such as Regina King or Adam Driver or Ana de Armas) will be their main priority than a film without <i>a single</i> actor whom the public or most AMPAS members or film critics has ever heard of.  And finally, my main point was that I don’t think there is a causal connection between Netflix’s decision to give Bardo an extended theatrical release and Netflix’s decision as to which film will be its main Oscar priority; for Netflix, it is misleading to describe a “minimal theatrical/jump to streaming” as “second tier” treatment.  That’s Netflix’s modus operandi, and even TPOTD (the highest Oscar priority of ANY film from ANY distributor this past year) was released on the streamer (on December 1, 2021) only 14 days after it was released theatrically (on November 17, 2021).

    And BTW, I am VERY MUCH looking forward to seeing Bardo, and I sincerely hope it is a great film.  (The irony about this exchange is that I usually agree with many of your comments, even if I don’t share the confidence with which you sometimes express them.)

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    M
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    #1204955907

    I haven’t seen this movie yet but it could be this year’s NTD except that it’ll do better.

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    DanC
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    #1204955959

    What might save Rustin is its top-heavy producing team including Dustin Lance Black and the Obamas, who may help it stop from slipping through the cracks. That doesn’t mean that there still may not be a ceiling on how well it can do, but it has a SAG-friendly cast and I could see it being PGA-friendly too. The fact that the guild went with Tick Tick Boom and Being the Ricardos certainly works in its favor.

    Rustin also benefits from Colman Domingo being a possible major contender in the BA race which can make or break a film’s chances at getting a BP nomination. Even the general public knows who he is because of Euphoria so Netflix could easily make him their BA priority.

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    crabbie
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    #1204956309

    Everything Everywhere All At Once continuing to be relevant in its 8th week of release.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    alittle03
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    kamila
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    #1204956749

    Rustin also benefits from Colman Domingo being a possible major contender in the BA race which can make or break a film’s chances at getting a BP nomination. Even the general public knows who he is because of Euphoria so Netflix could easily make him their BA priority.

    Agreed. I think the nomination for Domingo is the absolute minimum it could get, and it seems like it could do better than that.

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    Matheus Vaz
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    #1204956907

    soon as i get the subtitles i’m wathing everything everywhere all at once, can’t wait for it!! our bp winner incoming.

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    pedrohf2001
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    #1204957100

    Netflix push for theatrical has nothing to do with awards.

    It’s about another revenue stream. After the recent Netflix collapse in stocks and subscribers, they are looking into ways get around. And here’s the fact :

    – Throwing movies straight to streaming, it’s throwing movies into a abyss of the forgotten. A 45 days theatrical performance backed up by a actual marketing campaign, will only enhance your movie performance on streaming. It gives your movie prestige. Movies like Knives Out 2 and Bardo are meant to be seen in the big screen. Not in our pathetic couch first.

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    LAINELAVIGNE
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    #1204958840

    Everything Everywhere All At Once coming to sweep omg we’re so here for it 😍

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204958852

    I have a question for the board here as I tend to spend more time on the TV side.

    What do you think is each studios current best bet (including some of the smaller ones/indies) for Best Picture?

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    kbc
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    #1204958860

    I have a question for the board here as I tend to spend more time on the TV side.

    What do you think is each studios current best bet (including some of the smaller ones/indies) for Best Picture?

    Very good question: just spitballing here

    Apple: Killers of the Flower Moon
    Amazon: My Policeman
    Netflix: Bardo
    Warners: Elvis
    Paramount: Babylon
    Universal: The Fabelmans
    Sony: I Wanna Dance With Somebody
    Disney (including Fox): Lightyear
    Searchlight: Empire of Light
    Sony Classics: The Son
    Focus Features: Tar
    MGM/UAmazon: Thirteen Lives
    Neon: Broker
    A24: EEAAO
    Mubi: Decision to Leave
    IFC: God’s Country
    Bleecker Street: Golda

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204958942

    Pundits will be pundits. Clayton Davis thinks that “Three Thousand Years of Longing” is the first 2022 movie to have Best Picture buzz, axing “Everything Everywhere All At Once”, just because he can.

    Anne Thompson is also skeptical about EEAAO awards-wise and she prefers to predict “Top Gun: Maverick” for… ehm… Best Adapted screenplay (listen to her Indiewire’s podcast from last week).

    Clayton is also not giving a chance to James Gray’s “Armageddon Time” , with his definitive article “‘Armageddon Time’ Proves Not All Auteur Childhood Portraits Are an Oscar Slam Dunk”.

    The best thing: some others are trying to predict Oscars by timing the standing ovations at Cannes… 😂

     

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