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2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 1)

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    kbc
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    #1204958953

    Pundits will be pundits. Clayton Davis thinks that “Three Thousand Years of Longing” is the first 2022 movie to have Best Picture buzz, axing “Everything Everywhere All At Once”, just because he can.

    Anne Thompson is also skeptical about EEAAO awards-wise and she prefers to predict “Top Gun: Maverick” for… ehm… Best Adapted screenplay (listen to her Indiewire’s podcast from last week).

    Clayton is also not giving a chance to James Grey’s “Armageddon Time” , with his definitive article “‘Armageddon Time’ Proves Not All Auteur Childhood Portraits Are an Oscar Slam Dunk”.

    The best thing: some others are trying to predict Oscars by timing the standing ovations at Cannes… 😂

    Big nope to Longing.

    Clayton is apparently an MGM guy / he was going wild for HoG a year ago. That ultimately fell short, and Longing is in line for box office disappointment.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    DanC
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    #1204959054

    I have a question for the board here as I tend to spend more time on the TV side. What do you think is each studios current best bet (including some of the smaller ones/indies) for Best Picture?

    A24: EEAAO
    Apple: Killers of the Flower Moon
    Amazon: My Policeman
    Disney/Fox: Amsterdam
    Focus Features: Tar
    MGM/UA: Women Talking
    Mubi: Decision to Leave
    Neon: Broker
    Netflix: Rustin
    Paramount: Babylon
    Searchlight: Next Goal Wins
    Sony: The Woman King
    Sony Classics: The Son
    Universal: The Fabelmans
    Warners: Elvis

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    OneAndOnly
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    #1204959066

    Top Gun: Maverick, at best, reminds me of Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

    An audience-friendly, nostalgia-heavy sequel coming decades later that performs very well at the box office (especially domestically) but doesn’t get a Picture nomination, only Editing/Sound/VFX/Score.

    But I don’t think TG:M even gets there, because even with an expanded lineup, I don’t see the Academy nominating more than maybe 2 action-heavy films – and this year has a few more likely possibilities. Obviously, Avatar: The Way of Water leads that field in every regard, but Everything Everywhere All At Once (now the highest grossing A24 film) has not lost any steam and has the critics backing. There’s also other non-traditional films (action, R-rated comedy, horror/thriller, etc..) that are also more likely to factor in including The Killer, The Menu, Bros, Don’t Worry Darling, Blonde, etc… (not that I’m expecting these to get in, just that it’s a competitive field for genre films). Top Gun: Maverick also has to deal with being a June release, giving some of these other films the easier task of beating the expectation rather than setting it.

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC:
    The Great
    Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Severance
    The Batman

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    Go Yeoh!
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    #1204959073

    Pundits will be pundits. Clayton Davis thinks that “Three Thousand Years of Longing” is the first 2022 movie to have Best Picture buzz, axing “Everything Everywhere All At Once”, just because he can. Anne Thompson is also skeptical about EEAAO awards-wise and she prefers to predict “Top Gun: Maverick” for… ehm… Best Adapted screenplay (listen to her Indiewire’s podcast from last week).

    I find the whole pundit culture so frustrating and elitist!  Shouldn’t you be backing films that need your support and spotlight? Completely ignoring the existence of one of the biggest successes of this year, only to push another run-in-mill blockbuster film or director auteur pieces that will anyways get notices from Oscar is such a waste of privilege. Hope they all are proved wrong!

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    Whirlwind
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    Jan 4th, 2021
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    #1204959078

    It’s so frustrating to watch pundits year after year hyperfocus on finding the next surefire crowd-pleaser to enter the race but then run to deny EEAAO even though it has everything going for it currently. Especially when they’re backing stuff that’s clearly less likely. Truly worms for brains.

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    TrumpBiden
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    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1204959266

    Remember last year when people thought another huge blockbuster, crowd pleasing, purely nostalgic driven film could be nominated for BP? It only got a VFX nom, Spiddy.

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    Sir Shaw
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    Aug 1st, 2019
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    #1204959328

    The reek of desperation coming off everyone who really trying make fetch happen out of those spidermen.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204959338

    81 (Metacritic’s standard for Universal Acclaim) on MC and IMDB this century, English-language live-action:
    LOTR $378, $343, $316
    Django Unchained $163
    Mad Max Fury Road $154
    Departed $132
    Ford v Ferrari $118
    Million Dollar Baby $100
    No Country for Old Men $74
    Grand Budapest Hotel $59
    Twelve Years a Slave $57
    Three Billboards $55
    Spotlight $45
    There Will Be Blood $40
    Pianist $33
    Room $15
    Whiplash $13
    The Father $2

    Dark Knight $535 (S Actor)
    Deathly Hallows Pt II $381
    Everything Everywhere All at Once $50+
    Eternal Sunshine $34 (Writing/Actress)
    Before Sunset $6 (Writing)

    [Dark Knight and Eternal Sunshine would have made it in an expanded lineup.
    Potter was the second half of a franchise concluding film, and the first half was underscored so the second half was overscored. It didn’t even crack the top 30 on year end lists on Metacritic.]

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    Setia Yasmine Khalil
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    #1204959545

    81 (Metacritic’s standard for Universal Acclaim) on MC and IMDB this century, English-language live-action: LOTR $378, $343, $316 Django Unchained $163 Mad Max Fury Road $154 Departed $132 Ford v Ferrari $118 Million Dollar Baby $100 No Country for Old Men $74 Grand Budapest Hotel $59 Twelve Years a Slave $57 Three Billboards $55 Spotlight $45 There Will Be Blood $40 Pianist $33 Room $15 Whiplash $13 The Father $2 Dark Knight $535 (S Actor) Deathly Hallows Pt II $381 Everything Everywhere All at Once $50+ Eternal Sunshine $34 (Writing/Actress) Before Sunset $6 (Writing) [Dark Knight and Eternal Sunshine would have made it in an expanded lineup. Potter was the second half of a franchise concluding film, and the first half was underscored so the second half was overscored. It didn’t even crack the top 30 on year end lists on Metacritic.]

    Million Dollar baby has a 81+ on metacritic you would think it has in 70s based on how twitter treats the wins

    I know it might be shocking but surprising that king speech was in 88 metacritic and had 8/10 on IMDb and was a big box office hit too

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    wolfali
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    #1204959566

    Assuming Killers of the Flower Moon gets pushed back.

    Picture

    1. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
    2. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
    3. The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
    4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
    5. Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
    6. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
    7. White Noise (Netflix)
    8. She Said (Universal Pictures)
    9. Women Talking (MGM)
    10. Cha Cha Real Smooth (Apple)

    Director

    1. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
    2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
    3. Maria Schrader, She Said
    4. Park Chan-Wook, Decision to Leave
    5. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
    7. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
    8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
    9. Florian Zeller, The Son 
    10. Hirokazu Kore-eda, Broker

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    kbc
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    #1204959854

    1. ⁠Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
    2. ⁠Damien Chazelle, Babylon
    3. ⁠Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon*
    4. ⁠Alejandro G. Inarritu, Bardo
    5. ⁠Maria Schrader, She Said
    6. ⁠Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
    7. ⁠Florian Zeller, The Son
    8. ⁠Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
    9. ⁠James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
    10. ⁠Ron Howard, Thirteen Lives

    *Ridley Scott here if Apple swaps in Napoleon for a delayed Flower Moon

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    LAINELAVIGNE
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    Apr 27th, 2022
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    #1204960034

    I love how EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE is not oscar-baity at all. Just purely organic love from fans and critics. Truly unexpected and well-deserved. ❤

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    Brayfers
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2018
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    #1204960227

    Killers of the Flower Moon BTS:

    https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?vanity=sherrystinson&set=a.10226532062953786

    I live in Tulsa, OK and these were recently shared by people in my community.

    Coming for Production Design and Costume Design wbk

    Letterboxd: Brayfers

    Multi-Grammy Winning Artist - Olivia Rodrigo

    !! EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE - OUT NOW !!

    FYC:
    - Squid Game
    - Severance
    - This Is Us
    - Stranger Things
    - Reservation Dogs

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    TrumpBiden
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    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1204960335

    I actually have Avatar as a bp nom, like almost locked. My prediction will hold true.

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204960441

    Please.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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