2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 1)

[kbc Joined: Sep 16th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1585 View Predictions]

#1204958953

Stefania wrote:

Pundits will be pundits. Clayton Davis thinks that “Three Thousand Years of Longing” is the first 2022 movie to have Best Picture buzz, axing “Everything Everywhere All At Once”, just because he can.

Anne Thompson is also skeptical about EEAAO awards-wise and she prefers to predict “Top Gun: Maverick” for… ehm… Best Adapted screenplay (listen to her Indiewire’s podcast from last week).

Clayton is also not giving a chance to James Grey’s “Armageddon Time” , with his definitive article “‘Armageddon Time’ Proves Not All Auteur Childhood Portraits Are an Oscar Slam Dunk”.

The best thing: some others are trying to predict Oscars by timing the standing ovations at Cannes… 😂

Big nope to Longing.

Clayton is apparently an MGM guy / he was going wild for HoG a year ago. That ultimately fell short, and Longing is in line for box office disappointment.

FYC
Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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[DanC Joined: Jun 10th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 246 View Predictions]

#1204959054

kat_ebbs wrote:

I have a question for the board here as I tend to spend more time on the TV side. What do you think is each studios current best bet (including some of the smaller ones/indies) for Best Picture?

A24: EEAAO
Apple: Killers of the Flower Moon
Amazon: My Policeman
Disney/Fox: Amsterdam
Focus Features: Tar
MGM/UA: Women Talking
Mubi: Decision to Leave
Neon: Broker
Netflix: Rustin
Paramount: Babylon
Searchlight: Next Goal Wins
Sony: The Woman King
Sony Classics: The Son
Universal: The Fabelmans
Warners: Elvis

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[OneAndOnly Joined: Mar 21st, 2017 Topics: 11 Posts: 1107 View Predictions]

#1204959066

Top Gun: Maverick, at best, reminds me of Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

An audience-friendly, nostalgia-heavy sequel coming decades later that performs very well at the box office (especially domestically) but doesn’t get a Picture nomination, only Editing/Sound/VFX/Score.

But I don’t think TG:M even gets there, because even with an expanded lineup, I don’t see the Academy nominating more than maybe 2 action-heavy films – and this year has a few more likely possibilities. Obviously, Avatar: The Way of Water leads that field in every regard, but Everything Everywhere All At Once (now the highest grossing A24 film) has not lost any steam and has the critics backing. There’s also other non-traditional films (action, R-rated comedy, horror/thriller, etc..) that are also more likely to factor in including The Killer, The Menu, Bros, Don’t Worry Darling, Blonde, etc… (not that I’m expecting these to get in, just that it’s a competitive field for genre films). Top Gun: Maverick also has to deal with being a June release, giving some of these other films the easier task of beating the expectation rather than setting it.

Have a great day if you see this!

FYC:
The Great
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Severance
The Batman

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[Go Yeoh! Joined: Sep 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 904 View Predictions]

#1204959073

Stefania wrote:

Pundits will be pundits. Clayton Davis thinks that “Three Thousand Years of Longing” is the first 2022 movie to have Best Picture buzz, axing “Everything Everywhere All At Once”, just because he can. Anne Thompson is also skeptical about EEAAO awards-wise and she prefers to predict “Top Gun: Maverick” for… ehm… Best Adapted screenplay (listen to her Indiewire’s podcast from last week).

I find the whole pundit culture so frustrating and elitist!  Shouldn’t you be backing films that need your support and spotlight? Completely ignoring the existence of one of the biggest successes of this year, only to push another run-in-mill blockbuster film or director auteur pieces that will anyways get notices from Oscar is such a waste of privilege. Hope they all are proved wrong!

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[Whirlwind Joined: Jan 4th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 52 View Predictions]

#1204959078

It’s so frustrating to watch pundits year after year hyperfocus on finding the next surefire crowd-pleaser to enter the race but then run to deny EEAAO even though it has everything going for it currently. Especially when they’re backing stuff that’s clearly less likely. Truly worms for brains.

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[TrumpBiden Joined: Dec 22nd, 2020 Topics: 2 Posts: 772 View Predictions]

#1204959266

Remember last year when people thought another huge blockbuster, crowd pleasing, purely nostalgic driven film could be nominated for BP? It only got a VFX nom, Spiddy.

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[Sir Shaw Joined: Aug 1st, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 982 View Predictions]

#1204959328

The reek of desperation coming off everyone who really trying make fetch happen out of those spidermen.

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[jjjmoss Joined: Jun 2nd, 2016 Topics: 2 Posts: 791 View Predictions]

#1204959338

81 (Metacritic’s standard for Universal Acclaim) on MC and IMDB this century, English-language live-action:
LOTR $378, $343, $316
Django Unchained $163
Mad Max Fury Road $154
Departed $132
Ford v Ferrari $118
Million Dollar Baby $100
No Country for Old Men $74
Grand Budapest Hotel $59
Twelve Years a Slave $57
Three Billboards $55
Spotlight $45
There Will Be Blood $40
Pianist $33
Room $15
Whiplash $13
The Father $2

Dark Knight $535 (S Actor)
Deathly Hallows Pt II $381
Everything Everywhere All at Once $50+
Eternal Sunshine $34 (Writing/Actress)
Before Sunset $6 (Writing)

[Dark Knight and Eternal Sunshine would have made it in an expanded lineup.
Potter was the second half of a franchise concluding film, and the first half was underscored so the second half was overscored. It didn’t even crack the top 30 on year end lists on Metacritic.]

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[Setia Yasmine Khalil Joined: Jan 14th, 2022 Topics: 1 Posts: 1004 View Predictions]

#1204959545

jjjmoss wrote:

81 (Metacritic’s standard for Universal Acclaim) on MC and IMDB this century, English-language live-action: LOTR $378, $343, $316 Django Unchained $163 Mad Max Fury Road $154 Departed $132 Ford v Ferrari $118 Million Dollar Baby $100 No Country for Old Men $74 Grand Budapest Hotel $59 Twelve Years a Slave $57 Three Billboards $55 Spotlight $45 There Will Be Blood $40 Pianist $33 Room $15 Whiplash $13 The Father $2 Dark Knight $535 (S Actor) Deathly Hallows Pt II $381 Everything Everywhere All at Once $50+ Eternal Sunshine $34 (Writing/Actress) Before Sunset $6 (Writing) [Dark Knight and Eternal Sunshine would have made it in an expanded lineup. Potter was the second half of a franchise concluding film, and the first half was underscored so the second half was overscored. It didn’t even crack the top 30 on year end lists on Metacritic.]

Million Dollar baby has a 81+ on metacritic you would think it has in 70s based on how twitter treats the wins

I know it might be shocking but surprising that king speech was in 88 metacritic and had 8/10 on IMDb and was a big box office hit too

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[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 218 Posts: 33543 View Predictions]

#1204959566

Assuming Killers of the Flower Moon gets pushed back.

Picture

1. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
2. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
3. The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
5. Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
6. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
7. White Noise (Netflix)
8. She Said (Universal Pictures)
9. Women Talking (MGM)
10. Cha Cha Real Smooth (Apple)

Director

1. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
3. Maria Schrader, She Said
4. Park Chan-Wook, Decision to Leave
5. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
7. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
9. Florian Zeller, The Son 
10. Hirokazu Kore-eda, Broker

FYC:

"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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[kbc Joined: Sep 16th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1585 View Predictions]

#1204959854

1. ⁠Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
2. ⁠Damien Chazelle, Babylon
3. ⁠Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon*
4. ⁠Alejandro G. Inarritu, Bardo
5. ⁠Maria Schrader, She Said
6. ⁠Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
7. ⁠Florian Zeller, The Son
8. ⁠Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
9. ⁠James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
10. ⁠Ron Howard, Thirteen Lives

*Ridley Scott here if Apple swaps in Napoleon for a delayed Flower Moon

FYC
Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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[LAINELAVIGNE Joined: Apr 27th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 99 View Predictions]

#1204960034

I love how EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE is not oscar-baity at all. Just purely organic love from fans and critics. Truly unexpected and well-deserved. ❤

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[Brayfers Joined: Oct 19th, 2018 Topics: 12 Posts: 858 View Predictions]

#1204960227

Killers of the Flower Moon BTS:

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?vanity=sherrystinson&set=a.10226532062953786

I live in Tulsa, OK and these were recently shared by people in my community.

Coming for Production Design and Costume Design wbk

Letterboxd: Brayfers

Multi-Grammy Winning Artist - Olivia Rodrigo

!! EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE - OUT NOW !!

FYC:
- Squid Game
- Severance
- This Is Us
- Stranger Things
- Reservation Dogs

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[TrumpBiden Joined: Dec 22nd, 2020 Topics: 2 Posts: 772 View Predictions]

#1204960335

I actually have Avatar as a bp nom, like almost locked. My prediction will hold true.

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[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4170 View Predictions]

#1204960441

Please.

she gon do everything on my everywhere all at once

— ko (@makjako) May 21, 2022

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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