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2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 1)

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    DanC
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    Jun 10th, 2020
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    #1204964898

    I think there is bound to be one or two BP nominees nobody saw coming. I wonder which ones they´re every day. There has to be something we´re underestimating.

    I’m thinking…

    Napoleon
    The Killer
    Tar
    See How They Run

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    kbc
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    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204964916

    I think there is bound to be one or two BP nominees nobody saw coming. I wonder which ones they´re every day. There has to be something we´re underestimating.

    A Man Called Otto
    Bones & All
    Aftersun
    The Swimmers
    The Menu
    Tar

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    rue
    Joined:
    Oct 31st, 2019
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    #1204964935

    Finally got to see EEAAO and… yeah it’s coming.

    FYC:
    That's Where I Am by Maggie Rogers - Song of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Music Video, Best Country Song, Best Melodic Rap Performance, Best Traditional R&B Performance, Best Country Solo Performance, Best Rap Solo Performance, Best Metal Performance, Best Rock Song, Best American Roots Performance

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    LAINELAVIGNE
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    Apr 27th, 2022
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    #1204965015

    I’m not the same person as I was after watching Everything Everywhere All At Once. Truly unforgettable. ❤

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    Shrek Superslam
    Joined:
    Feb 7th, 2019
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    #1204965453

    EEAAO Picture Director Actress Original Screenplay Editing VFX Top Gun Maverick Picture Actor Cinematography Editing Sound Song

    Nah, nah, nah.

    EEAAO will get more technical nods than that, I reckon. Sound + Production Design, I reckon.

    Top Gun is not getting into Best Actor.

    However, whatever Cruise does after the next two Mission Impossibles, could be his Oscar movie, I reckon. I can see someone like PTA or Tarantino doing a semi-ironic star vehicle movie (with depth) starring him.

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    kbc
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    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204965496

    Love to see Showing Up get such an embrace at Cannes. It’s hopedicting for Williams in best actress and Reichardt in screenplay but maybe not as outlandish a prospect as before.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    pedrohf2001
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    Jan 27th, 2021
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    #1204965953

    Top Gun is a monster of a movie.

    A+ CinemaScore. This will have legs for days.

    It will do more than Doctor Strange 2 in the domestic market. This could get to 500M Domestic.

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    Bird
    Joined:
    Nov 5th, 2012
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    #1204966214

    I think this year will be a very blockbuster/genre friendly year at the Oscars. Multiple movies that make a lot of money will be in contention.

    Avatar: The Way of the Water
    Top Gun: Maverick
    Elvis
    (Assuming this makes a lot of money)
    EEAAO (I can see this pushing past $100 million with a re-release around Oscar noms)

    I believe at least 3 of these can make it into picture, and all of them will get multiple nominations. This could even be 4/5 of our editing nominations.

    Other Blockbusters that could get Oscar nominations outside Visual Effects:

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Costumes, Production Design, Make-Up)
    The Batman (Score and Cinematography)
    Nope (Original Screenplay and ???)

    And I believe there could be some breakout blockbusters in more traditional Oscar Pictures.

    Babylon (A movie starring Margot Robbie and Brad Pitt and directed by the same guy that did La La Land… Has $$$ written all over it)

    Thirteen Lives (There will be a lot of interest in this if it’s good. It’s a naturally thrilling story that captivated the world for… 13 days)

    Killers of the Flower Moon (Will be the most sought after streaming title IF it’s released this year)

    Amsterdam (I personally don’t like David O. Russel Movies, but there’s no denying the man can make a hit movie, give or take a Joy)

    I think there’s going to be a very strong “Theatrical movies are Back!” vibe going through this awards season. Also be prepared to hear the term “Maximalist” a lot.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204966299

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    CarlosEdu
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    Jan 16th, 2019
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    #1204966382

    Feeling more confident with Park Chan-wook getting a nomination in Best Director and Decision To Leave being the Cannes player of the year like Drive My Car and Parasite.

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    Vicki Leekx
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    Aug 3rd, 2019
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    #1204966386

    Feeling more confident with Park Chan-wook getting a nomination in Best Director and Decision To Leave being the Cannes player of the year like Drive My Car and Parasite.

    The taste if Park Chan-wook and Hirokazu Kore-eda both make it in…

    FYC:

    Swinton, Weerasethakul Memoria, (Best Actress, Director)
    Efira, Rampling, Wilson Benedetta (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Rapace Lamb (Best Actress)
    Stewart, Hawkins, Spall Spencer (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204966400

    Best Picture:
    Empire of Light
    Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Elvis
    The Fabelmans
    I Wanna Dance With Somebody
    Killers of the Flower Moon
    Next Goal Wins
    Rustin
    She Said
    Women Talking

    Elvis didn’t got panned as expected and Butler’s performance is getting praised, so I think Warner Bros’ track record makes it hard to bet against the movie especially if it gets a good box office run.

    I’m also willing to consider two movies that usually people in this forum would sleep on:

    Top Gun: Maverick. You can’t ignore the extremely positive critical reception (the original got a mixed reception) and the audience praise, A+ on Cinemascore and the astonishing box office results. It could be like Mad Max: Fury Road. It’s probably locked for noms in Original Song (win), VFX, Sound and Editing.

    Lightyear: It’s based on a IP that got 9 oscar nominations so it should be considered. Of course it will depend on the reception and I don’t think this will get a extremely positive one. The last Pixar movies have gotten mixed feelings from both critics/audiences.

    Not really feeling it:
    Poor Things: Too weird

    Babylon: Too weird, although Margot Robbie and the techs should be able to get in

    White Noise: Too weird

    Armaggedon Time: A snooze, like every other James Gray movie, so no.

    Canterbury Glass: Tea is that this will be a misfire

    Avatar 2: Beyond locked for a VFX win, but I’m not sure there will be urgency to recognize this sequel in ATL categories.

    Don’t Worry Darling: Too weird, and divisive

    The Son: Sure the actors and the screenplay will get in, but on the other hand I think Hopkins’ performance was The Father’s biggest selling point. The way the story was told was also a novelty.

    Best Director:
    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
    Park Chan Wook – Decision To Leave
    Sarah Polley – Women Talking
    Sam Mendes – Empire of Light
    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

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    The Way of The Wind
    Joined:
    Sep 22nd, 2011
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    #1204966414

    Late May Predix

    Tar
    Decision to Leave
    The Whale
    The Killer
    Avatar: The Way of Water
    Blonde
    Everything Everywhere All At Once
    The Son
    The Northman
    The Batman

    2023 Oscar
    Best Picture: The Way of The Wind
    Best Director: Decision to Leave
    Best Actress: TAR
    Best Actor: The Whale
    Best Supporting Actress: The Whale
    Best Supporting Actor: Poor Things

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    braydenfitzsimmons
    Joined:
    May 3rd, 2015
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    #1204966418

    Best Picture:
    Empire of Light
    Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Elvis
    The Fabelmans
    I Wanna Dance With Somebody
    Killers of the Flower Moon
    Next Goal Wins
    Rustin
    She Said
    Women Talking

    Elvis didn’t got panned as expected and Butler’s performance is getting praised, so I think Warner Bros’ track record makes it hard to bet against the movie especially if it gets a good box office run.

    It’s currently projected for $30m-$55m opening weekend, with $110m-$170m domestic total.

    If the worst case scenario of $110m remains true, it would still outgross every above-the-line nominee last year (only Dune had a domestic box office above $40m, with $108.3m) and would outgross every non-Dune nominee combined.

    Belfast – $9.25m
    Drive My Car – $2.35m
    King Richard – $15.13m
    Nightmare Alley – $11.34m
    Licorice Pizza – $17.32m
    West West Story – $38.35m
    ———————————————————————————————
    The Eyes of Tammy Faye – $2.405m
    Parallel Mothers – $2.3m
    Spencer – $7.085m
    Worst Person in the World – $3.035m

    Total BP Domestic B.O. (excluding Dune) = $93.69m

    Total ATL Domestic B.O. (excluding Dune) = $107.515m

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    jjjmoss
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2016
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    #1204966455

    Top Gun is a monster of a movie. A+ CinemaScore. This will have legs for days. It will do more than Doctor Strange 2 in the domestic market. This could get to 500M Domestic.

    a blockbuster sequel making money. news at 11.

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