2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 1)

[DanC Joined: Jun 10th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 246 View Predictions]

#1204964898

TrumpBiden wrote:

I think there is bound to be one or two BP nominees nobody saw coming. I wonder which ones they´re every day. There has to be something we´re underestimating.

I’m thinking…

Napoleon
The Killer
Tar
See How They Run

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[kbc Joined: Sep 16th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1585 View Predictions]

#1204964916

TrumpBiden wrote:

I think there is bound to be one or two BP nominees nobody saw coming. I wonder which ones they´re every day. There has to be something we´re underestimating.

A Man Called Otto
Bones & All
Aftersun
The Swimmers
The Menu
Tar

FYC
Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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[rue Joined: Oct 31st, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 4425 View Predictions]

#1204964935

Finally got to see EEAAO and… yeah it’s coming.

FYC:
That's Where I Am by Maggie Rogers - Song of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, Best Music Video, Best Country Song, Best Melodic Rap Performance, Best Traditional R&B Performance, Best Country Solo Performance, Best Rap Solo Performance, Best Metal Performance, Best Rock Song, Best American Roots Performance

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[LAINELAVIGNE Joined: Apr 27th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 99 View Predictions]

#1204965015

I’m not the same person as I was after watching Everything Everywhere All At Once. Truly unforgettable. ❤

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[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 789 View Predictions]

#1204965453

Beastialg wrote:

EEAAO Picture Director Actress Original Screenplay Editing VFX Top Gun Maverick Picture Actor Cinematography Editing Sound Song

Nah, nah, nah.

EEAAO will get more technical nods than that, I reckon. Sound + Production Design, I reckon.

Top Gun is not getting into Best Actor.

However, whatever Cruise does after the next two Mission Impossibles, could be his Oscar movie, I reckon. I can see someone like PTA or Tarantino doing a semi-ironic star vehicle movie (with depth) starring him.

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[kbc Joined: Sep 16th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1585 View Predictions]

#1204965496

Love to see Showing Up get such an embrace at Cannes. It’s hopedicting for Williams in best actress and Reichardt in screenplay but maybe not as outlandish a prospect as before.

FYC
Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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[pedrohf2001 Joined: Jan 27th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1031 View Predictions]

#1204965953

Top Gun is a monster of a movie.

A+ CinemaScore. This will have legs for days.

It will do more than Doctor Strange 2 in the domestic market. This could get to 500M Domestic.

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[Bird Joined: Nov 5th, 2012 Topics: 0 Posts: 31 View Predictions]

#1204966214

I think this year will be a very blockbuster/genre friendly year at the Oscars. Multiple movies that make a lot of money will be in contention.

Avatar: The Way of the Water
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis(Assuming this makes a lot of money)
EEAAO (I can see this pushing past $100 million with a re-release around Oscar noms)

I believe at least 3 of these can make it into picture, and all of them will get multiple nominations. This could even be 4/5 of our editing nominations.

Other Blockbusters that could get Oscar nominations outside Visual Effects:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Costumes, Production Design, Make-Up)
The Batman (Score and Cinematography)
Nope (Original Screenplay and ???)

And I believe there could be some breakout blockbusters in more traditional Oscar Pictures.

Babylon (A movie starring Margot Robbie and Brad Pitt and directed by the same guy that did La La Land… Has $$$ written all over it)

Thirteen Lives (There will be a lot of interest in this if it’s good. It’s a naturally thrilling story that captivated the world for… 13 days)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Will be the most sought after streaming title IF it’s released this year)

Amsterdam (I personally don’t like David O. Russel Movies, but there’s no denying the man can make a hit movie, give or take a Joy)

I think there’s going to be a very strong “Theatrical movies are Back!” vibe going through this awards season. Also be prepared to hear the term “Maximalist” a lot.

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[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 218 Posts: 33546 View Predictions]

#1204966299

I’m crying omg pic.twitter.com/1a2YDs3IHM

— Kiera Please (@Kieraplease) May 27, 2022

FYC:

"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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[CarlosEdu Joined: Jan 16th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 250 View Predictions]

#1204966382

Feeling more confident with Park Chan-wook getting a nomination in Best Director and Decision To Leave being the Cannes player of the year like Drive My Car and Parasite.

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[Vicki Leekx Joined: Aug 3rd, 2019 Topics: 2 Posts: 1371 View Predictions]

#1204966386

CarlosEdu wrote:

Feeling more confident with Park Chan-wook getting a nomination in Best Director and Decision To Leave being the Cannes player of the year like Drive My Car and Parasite.

The taste if Park Chan-wook and Hirokazu Kore-eda both make it in…

FYC:

Swinton, Weerasethakul Memoria, (Best Actress, Director)
Efira, Rampling, Wilson Benedetta (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
Rapace Lamb (Best Actress)
Stewart, Hawkins, Spall Spencer (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)

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[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 9 Posts: 4323 View Predictions]

#1204966400

Best Picture:
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Elvis
The Fabelmans
I Wanna Dance With Somebody
Killers of the Flower Moon
Next Goal Wins
Rustin
She Said
Women Talking

Elvis didn’t got panned as expected and Butler’s performance is getting praised, so I think Warner Bros’ track record makes it hard to bet against the movie especially if it gets a good box office run.

I’m also willing to consider two movies that usually people in this forum would sleep on:

Top Gun: Maverick. You can’t ignore the extremely positive critical reception (the original got a mixed reception) and the audience praise, A+ on Cinemascore and the astonishing box office results. It could be like Mad Max: Fury Road. It’s probably locked for noms in Original Song (win), VFX, Sound and Editing.

Lightyear: It’s based on a IP that got 9 oscar nominations so it should be considered. Of course it will depend on the reception and I don’t think this will get a extremely positive one. The last Pixar movies have gotten mixed feelings from both critics/audiences.

Not really feeling it:
Poor Things: Too weird

Babylon: Too weird, although Margot Robbie and the techs should be able to get in

White Noise: Too weird

Armaggedon Time: A snooze, like every other James Gray movie, so no.

Canterbury Glass: Tea is that this will be a misfire

Avatar 2: Beyond locked for a VFX win, but I’m not sure there will be urgency to recognize this sequel in ATL categories.

Don’t Worry Darling: Too weird, and divisive

The Son: Sure the actors and the screenplay will get in, but on the other hand I think Hopkins’ performance was The Father’s biggest selling point. The way the story was told was also a novelty.

Best Director:
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Park Chan Wook – Decision To Leave
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Sam Mendes – Empire of Light
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

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[The Way of The Wind Joined: Sep 22nd, 2011 Topics: 35 Posts: 1144 View Predictions]

#1204966414

Late May Predix

Tar
Decision to Leave
The Whale
The Killer
Avatar: The Way of Water
Blonde
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Son
The Northman
The Batman

2023 Oscar
Best Picture: The Way of The Wind
Best Director: Decision to Leave
Best Actress: TAR
Best Actor: The Whale
Best Supporting Actress: The Whale
Best Supporting Actor: Poor Things

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[braydenfitzsimmons Joined: May 3rd, 2015 Topics: 89 Posts: 7684 View Predictions]

#1204966418

JV wrote:

Best Picture:
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Elvis
The Fabelmans
I Wanna Dance With Somebody
Killers of the Flower Moon
Next Goal Wins
Rustin
She Said
Women Talking

Elvis didn’t got panned as expected and Butler’s performance is getting praised, so I think Warner Bros’ track record makes it hard to bet against the movie especially if it gets a good box office run.

It’s currently projected for $30m-$55m opening weekend, with $110m-$170m domestic total.

If the worst case scenario of $110m remains true, it would still outgross every above-the-line nominee last year (only Dune had a domestic box office above $40m, with $108.3m) and would outgross every non-Dune nominee combined.

Belfast – $9.25m
Drive My Car – $2.35m
King Richard – $15.13m
Nightmare Alley – $11.34m
Licorice Pizza – $17.32m
West West Story – $38.35m
———————————————————————————————
The Eyes of Tammy Faye – $2.405m
Parallel Mothers – $2.3m
Spencer – $7.085m
Worst Person in the World – $3.035m

Total BP Domestic B.O. (excluding Dune) = $93.69m

Total ATL Domestic B.O. (excluding Dune) = $107.515m

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[jjjmoss Joined: Jun 2nd, 2016 Topics: 2 Posts: 791 View Predictions]

#1204966455

pedrohf2001 wrote:

Top Gun is a monster of a movie. A+ CinemaScore. This will have legs for days. It will do more than Doctor Strange 2 in the domestic market. This could get to 500M Domestic.

a blockbuster sequel making money. news at 11.

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