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2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 1)

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    CarlosEdu
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    #1204966652

    Best Picture
    1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
    2. Empire of Light
    3. Killers of the Flower Moon
    4. The Fabelmans
    5. Women Talking
    6. Babylon
    7. Decision To Leave
    8. The Son
    9. Rustin
    10. The Batman

    Best Director
    1. Sam Mendes – Empire of Light
    2. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
    3. Park Chan-wook – Decision To Leave
    4. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
    5. Sarah Polley – Women Talking

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    alittle03
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    #1204969658

    June predictions.

    Picture –

    1. Killers of the Flower Moon 
    2. The Fablemans 
    3. Babylon
    4. Everything Everywhere All at Once
    5. Empire of Light 
    6. The Son 
    7. She Said
    8. Women Talking
    9. The Banshees of Insherin 
    10. Avatar: The Way of the Water

    Director –

    1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
    2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
    3. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
    4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
    5. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    6. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
    7. Steven Spielberg, The Fablemans
    8. Maria Schrader, She Said 
    9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things 
    10. Florian Zeller, The Son

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204969668

    Apparently A24 and Searchlight thought Triangle of Sadness could’ve been a contender for BP, I wonder how far NEON can take it

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    TrumpBiden
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    #1204969711

    It’s currently projected for $30m-$55m opening weekend, with $110m-$170m domestic total. If the worst case scenario of $110m remains true, it would still outgross every above-the-line nominee last year (only Dune had a domestic box office above $40m, with $108.3m) and would outgross every non-Dune nominee combined. Belfast – $9.25m Drive My Car – $2.35m King Richard – $15.13m Nightmare Alley – $11.34m Licorice Pizza – $17.32m West West Story – $38.35m ——————————————————————————————— The Eyes of Tammy Faye – $2.405m Parallel Mothers – $2.3m Spencer – $7.085m Worst Person in the World – $3.035m Total BP Domestic B.O. (excluding Dune) = $93.69m Total ATL Domestic B.O. (excluding Dune) = $107.515m

    To be fair, I fully expect most movies to do better at the box office this year. I noticed a lot more people are willing to go to a movie theater, especially now that Covid isn’t as feared as it was a year ago.

    Hell, I only went once last year and have already done it 4 times this year.

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    CarlosEdu
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    #1204970829

    Triangle of Sadness has a great shot for a nomination in Original Screenplay I would say. If the movie becomes a big contender, nominations in Best Picture, Best Director and Best Supporting Actor could happen too.

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    kbc
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    #1204972094

    MGM/UAmazon adopts a Licorice Pizza platform release, but it had its drawbacks last season, so will it pan out better for WT?

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    gorman
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    #1204972162

    Triangle of Sadness has a great shot for a nomination in Original Screenplay I would say. If the movie becomes a big contender, nominations in Best Picture, Best Director and Best Supporting Actor could happen too.

    Looking at the options in Original I think I’d agree with this. It’s at least on the periphery. Östlund fits the Pawlikowski/ Vinterberg mould as an esteemed and popular European director due Academy recognition, too – not predicting him until we see how the film plays out, but it seems like a film that will go over well with most audiences and obviously winning the Palme is an excellent start to its awards run. A wait and see, but I think it has some potential. Stumbling block is the critics, doesn’t seem like it will get too big a push from them.

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    gorman
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    #1204972166

    MGM/UAmazon adopts a Licorice Pizza platform release, but it had its drawbacks last season, so will it pan out better for WT?

    I think this will have a festival run, whereas LP emerged really late – I’ll be surprised if WT doesn’t at least hit TIFF and Venice feels possible too. I see this being the critical darling of the year, too – whilst LP was beloved by critics it never really got the TPOTD/ DMC level of love that I think WT is going to get. Right now, it seems almost too likely to me that it will get around 90 on Metacritic, lead critics awards wins, get between 7-10 nominations, be a frontrunner and then get beaten by a lighter, more crowd-pleasing film whilst Polley takes Director or Screenplay.

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    DanC
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    #1204972372

    I think this will have a festival run, whereas LP emerged really late – I’ll be surprised if WT doesn’t at least hit TIFF and Venice feels possible too. I see this being the critical darling of the year, too – whilst LP was beloved by critics it never really got the TPOTD/ DMC level of love that I think WT is going to get. Right now, it seems almost too likely to me that it will get around 90 on Metacritic, lead critics awards wins, get between 7-10 nominations, be a frontrunner and then get beaten by a lighter, more crowd-pleasing film whilst Polley takes Director or Screenplay.

    I’d argue that this movie needs a festival run. I admittedly don’t have much faith in MGM’s campaign strategies, especially after last year. PTA appreciation within the writers’ & directors’ branches is what kept LP in the conversation. WT is a heavier film from a relatively less well-known director so such a late release date is a major risk.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204972413

    MGM/UAmazon adopts a Licorice Pizza platform release, but it had its drawbacks last season, so will it pan out better for WT?

    I’m not convinced that Licorice Pizza would have won more Oscars or Oscar nominations with a different release plan (if that is what you are suggesting).

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    ScottK
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    #1204972461

    Predictions post-Cannes June 2022

    Best Picture
    1. Till
    2. The Fabelmans
    3. Killers of the Flower Moon
    4. Rustin
    5. Babylon
    6. Women Talking
    7. Avatar 2
    8. Bardo
    9. She Said
    10. The Son
    Best Director
    1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
    2. Chinonye Chukwu – Till
    3. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
    4. Damien Chazelle – Babylon
    5. Alejandro G Inarritu – Bardo

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    Setia Yasmine Khalil
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    #1204972867

    Isn’t that strange that a movie like women talking will have a Pg 13 rating I read the book and it is very edgy and dark  so I guess she won’t show the graphic details and treats the subject matter in a subtle way

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204972948

    Isn’t that strange that a movie like women talking will have a Pg 13 rating I read the book and it is very edgy and dark  so I guess she won’t show the graphic details and treats the subject matter in a subtle way

    You’re right, it would indicate it has to be showing it quite subtly. I would not have expected that to go PG-13 at all.

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    LAINELAVIGNE
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    Apr 27th, 2022
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    #1204972950

    everything everywhere all at once is the only movie that’s sent me through every single emotion so strongly. one of the best movies i’ve ever seen

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    gorman
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    #1204973032

    everything everywhere all at once is the only movie that’s sent me through every single emotion so strongly. one of the best movies i’ve ever seen

    Still haven’t made my mind up on its awards chances. It feels far removed from a standard awards player, even pretty far removed from some of the less conventional choices in recent years, but its passion does seem to be carrying and its commercial success is apparent.

    I can’t see critics championing it in categories like Picture or Director, but I think Yeoh, Quan and the Screenplay will get critic love. Obviously the chances of all early releases depend on the strength of what comes out in awards season, but I think it could get anything from zero to five/ six nominations – roughly in order of likelihood, Original Screenplay, Visual Effects, Actress, Editing, Picture, Supporting Actor maybe?

    Not sure it will hold out until next year and appeal to enough voters. It’ll need a smart campaign, at least for now A24 seems to be doing really well with it.

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