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Best Picture
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Empire of Light
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Fabelmans
5. Women Talking
6. Babylon
7. Decision To Leave
8. The Son
9. Rustin
10. The BatmanBest Director
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1. Sam Mendes – Empire of Light
2. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
3. Park Chan-wook – Decision To Leave
4. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Sarah Polley – Women TalkingJune predictions.
Picture –
1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. The Fablemans
3. Babylon
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Empire of Light
6. The Son
7. She Said
8. Women Talking
9. The Banshees of Insherin
10. Avatar: The Way of the WaterDirector –
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
3. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once6. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
7. Steven Spielberg, The Fablemans
8. Maria Schrader, She Said
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
10. Florian Zeller, The SonReplyCopy URL• FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.
Apparently A24 and Searchlight thought Triangle of Sadness could’ve been a contender for BP, I wonder how far NEON can take it
interesting return to LA note… a rival studio that didn't end up acquiring Triangle of Sadness (producer demands, just U.S. rights)
…thought it was a legit Best Picture nominee…
no pressure NEON
— Gregory Ellwood – The Playlist 🎬 (@TheGregoryE) June 1, 2022
ReplyCopy URLA24, Searchlight per @akstanwyck's reporting. After DON'T LOOK UP last year, also a critically divisive film, TRIANGLE OF SADNESS definitely has a shot with only its European provenance/director & lack of stars besides Harrelson working against it.https://t.co/8FmPy52PlI
— Ankit Jhunjhunwala (@fuzzyyarns) June 1, 2022
It’s currently projected for $30m-$55m opening weekend, with $110m-$170m domestic total. If the worst case scenario of $110m remains true, it would still outgross every above-the-line nominee last year (only Dune had a domestic box office above $40m, with $108.3m) and would outgross every non-Dune nominee combined. Belfast – $9.25m Drive My Car – $2.35m King Richard – $15.13m Nightmare Alley – $11.34m Licorice Pizza – $17.32m West West Story – $38.35m ——————————————————————————————— The Eyes of Tammy Faye – $2.405m Parallel Mothers – $2.3m Spencer – $7.085m Worst Person in the World – $3.035m Total BP Domestic B.O. (excluding Dune) = $93.69m Total ATL Domestic B.O. (excluding Dune) = $107.515m
To be fair, I fully expect most movies to do better at the box office this year. I noticed a lot more people are willing to go to a movie theater, especially now that Covid isn’t as feared as it was a year ago.
Hell, I only went once last year and have already done it 4 times this year.
ReplyCopy URLUnited Artists announced Sarah Polley's long awaited and highly anticipated "Women Talking" starring Frances McDormand, Ben Whishaw, Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley and more will be released December 2nd (Limited) and expand wide on December 25, 2022 pic.twitter.com/RWOEeX0WMU
— Jason (@jasonosia) June 3, 2022
MGM/UAmazon adopts a Licorice Pizza platform release, but it had its drawbacks last season, so will it pan out better for WT?
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Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Best Adapted Screenplay: David KajganichTriangle of Sadness has a great shot for a nomination in Original Screenplay I would say. If the movie becomes a big contender, nominations in Best Picture, Best Director and Best Supporting Actor could happen too.
Looking at the options in Original I think I’d agree with this. It’s at least on the periphery. Östlund fits the Pawlikowski/ Vinterberg mould as an esteemed and popular European director due Academy recognition, too – not predicting him until we see how the film plays out, but it seems like a film that will go over well with most audiences and obviously winning the Palme is an excellent start to its awards run. A wait and see, but I think it has some potential. Stumbling block is the critics, doesn’t seem like it will get too big a push from them.
ReplyCopy URLMGM/UAmazon adopts a Licorice Pizza platform release, but it had its drawbacks last season, so will it pan out better for WT?
I think this will have a festival run, whereas LP emerged really late – I’ll be surprised if WT doesn’t at least hit TIFF and Venice feels possible too. I see this being the critical darling of the year, too – whilst LP was beloved by critics it never really got the TPOTD/ DMC level of love that I think WT is going to get. Right now, it seems almost too likely to me that it will get around 90 on Metacritic, lead critics awards wins, get between 7-10 nominations, be a frontrunner and then get beaten by a lighter, more crowd-pleasing film whilst Polley takes Director or Screenplay.
ReplyCopy URLI think this will have a festival run, whereas LP emerged really late – I’ll be surprised if WT doesn’t at least hit TIFF and Venice feels possible too. I see this being the critical darling of the year, too – whilst LP was beloved by critics it never really got the TPOTD/ DMC level of love that I think WT is going to get. Right now, it seems almost too likely to me that it will get around 90 on Metacritic, lead critics awards wins, get between 7-10 nominations, be a frontrunner and then get beaten by a lighter, more crowd-pleasing film whilst Polley takes Director or Screenplay.
I’d argue that this movie needs a festival run. I admittedly don’t have much faith in MGM’s campaign strategies, especially after last year. PTA appreciation within the writers’ & directors’ branches is what kept LP in the conversation. WT is a heavier film from a relatively less well-known director so such a late release date is a major risk.
ReplyCopy URLPredictions post-Cannes June 2022
Best Picture
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1. Till
2. The Fabelmans
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Rustin
5. Babylon
6. Women Talking
7. Avatar 2
8. Bardo
9. She Said
10. The Son
Best Director
1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
2. Chinonye Chukwu – Till
3. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Damien Chazelle – Babylon
5. Alejandro G Inarritu – BardoIsn’t that strange that a movie like women talking will have a Pg 13 rating I read the book and it is very edgy and dark so I guess she won’t show the graphic details and treats the subject matter in a subtle way
ReplyCopy URLSarah Polley's "Women Talking" starring Frances McDormand, Ben Whishaw, Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley is completed and has received its MPA
Rating of PG-13 for mature thematic content including sexual assault, bloody images, and some strong language pic.twitter.com/1ruHMZ4Vlj
— Will Mavity (@mavericksmovies) May 11, 2022
Isn’t that strange that a movie like women talking will have a Pg 13 rating I read the book and it is very edgy and dark so I guess she won’t show the graphic details and treats the subject matter in a subtle way
You’re right, it would indicate it has to be showing it quite subtly. I would not have expected that to go PG-13 at all.
ReplyCopy URLeverything everywhere all at once is the only movie that’s sent me through every single emotion so strongly. one of the best movies i’ve ever seen
Still haven’t made my mind up on its awards chances. It feels far removed from a standard awards player, even pretty far removed from some of the less conventional choices in recent years, but its passion does seem to be carrying and its commercial success is apparent.
I can’t see critics championing it in categories like Picture or Director, but I think Yeoh, Quan and the Screenplay will get critic love. Obviously the chances of all early releases depend on the strength of what comes out in awards season, but I think it could get anything from zero to five/ six nominations – roughly in order of likelihood, Original Screenplay, Visual Effects, Actress, Editing, Picture, Supporting Actor maybe?
Not sure it will hold out until next year and appeal to enough voters. It’ll need a smart campaign, at least for now A24 seems to be doing really well with it.
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