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Just notice that every BD winner in at least this century is from a film nominated for Oscars cinematography or editing. If the stats is right, it’s gonna be between Todd Field and The Daniels this year. (McDonagh is not winning for sure)
I wouldn’t completely rule out McDonagh, but this is a fair point. I think Field is a genuine threat – I know they clearly loved EEAAO, but there’s real passion for TAR there too. Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay, Editing and Cinematography is a seriously respectable haul of nominations. This feels like the first time in a while I’ve been genuinely unsure about where BAFTA, DGA and the Oscars are going to go at this point in this race. It feels like a three-horse race to me between Daniels/ Field/ Spielberg, roughly in that order.
I can’t find the screenplay forum so i’m putting this here:
Call me crazy but I’m putting Top Gun: Maverick in my pole position for Adapted Screenplay. It has so much more support than all it’s competitors save for AQOTWF, and I don’t see them giving the screenplay award to a foreign language film unless it becomes a real threat for best picture. I think voters are going to want to give Top Gun SOME atl win, and screenplay is the only option other than picture.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.I know Women Talking’s buzz isn’t really there, but I also feel on one hand they will want to reward that movie with something. I don’t think Top Gun’s competitor is AQOTWF, it’s Women Talking. The fact that it even managed to get a Picture nom with just Screenplay is telling, idk.
You’re right I totally forgot to mention Women Talking. I was mainly just bringing up AQOTWF to explain why I’m using overall support as justification for my prediction yet not picking the MOST nominated movie.
Women Talking is definitely their main competition at the moment, but that movie SO underperformed (even failing to get would should have been an easy Best Supporting actor nomination) that even with the best picture nomination it just doesn’t feel like it will have enough support to win anything now that the whole membership is voting.
I can’t find the screenplay forum so i’m putting this here: Call me crazy but I’m putting Top Gun: Maverick in my pole position for Adapted Screenplay. It has so much more support than all its competitors save for AQOTWF, and I don’t see them giving the screenplay award to a foreign language film unless it becomes a real threat for best picture. I think voters are going to want to give Top Gun SOME atl win, and screenplay is the only option other than picture.
I actually think the fact that since last year’s adapted winner was already for a remake, it might actually hurt AQOTWF and Living a bit. Glass onion and Living being non BP nominees with the first being a lone nominee probably takes them out of the race and Women Talking underperformed. I think the fact that Top Gun missed cinematography could give some voters the makeup win here while AQOTWF wins the cinematography that probably would’ve went to Top Gun originally and they’d both walk home with a win. We already criticized CODA for being a TV movie by the books script so it’s not like this group would be completely above giving Top Gun a win.
It has so much more support than all it’s competitors save for AQOTWF, and I don’t see them giving the screenplay award to a foreign language film unless it becomes a real threat for best picture.
Talk to Her (foreign language film) never was a threat for best picture and still won over Gangs of New York, nominated for 10 including BP, directed by Scorsese and which could have been the place to not shut out the movie.
Right now I’m predicting all best picture movies (but Triangle of Sadness) to get at least one win
All Quiet on the Western Front (2) International Feature, Cinematography
Avatar: The Way of Water (1) Visual Effects
The Banshees of Inisherin (1) Original Screenplay
Elvis (2) Actor, Production Design
Everything Everywhere All at Once (4) Picture, Actress, S. Actor. Editing
The Fabelmans (1) Original Score
Tár (1) Director
Top Gun: Maverick (1) Sound
Triangle of Sadness (none)
Women Talking (1) Adapted Screenplay
Anyone know what time the César nominations are announced today?
FYC:
Zar Amir Ebrahimi - Holy Spider (Best Actress)
Ana de Armas, Julianne Nicholson - Blonde (Best Actress, Supporting Actress)
Samantha Morton - She Said (Best Supporting Actress)
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Supporting Actress)Right now I’m predicting all best picture movies (but Triangle of Sadness) to get at least one win All Quiet on the Western Front (2) International Feature, Cinematography Avatar: The Way of Water (1) Visual Effects The Banshees of Inisherin (1) Original Screenplay Elvis (2) Actor, Production Design Everything Everywhere All at Once (4) Picture, Actress, S. Actor. Editing The Fabelmans (1) Original Score Tár (1) Director Top Gun: Maverick (1) Sound Triangle of Sadness (none) Women Talking (1) Adapted Screenplay
Darling, a single directing win is very unlikely will happen again in a short time.
Talk to Her (foreign language film) never was a threat for best picture and still won over Gangs of New York, nominated for 10 including BP, directed by Scorsese and which could have been the place to not shut out the movie.
That was a very different case though because that win was as much (if not more) about Almodovar the person as it was the movie Talk To Her. Almodovar was already a FL winner at that point who had a ton of sympathy on his side after Spain chose NOT to select Talk To Her as their submission. He was an already beloved auteur who also scored a nomination in directing. Edward Berger does not have NEAR that level of name recognition, and they can already give him something when it inevitably wins the Internation Film Oscar (I know the directors don’t technically win those but that’s how we talk about them).
EEAAO came out really strong today. Ignoring its longlist snubs, it’s only real miss was sound but that was always far fetched since the category is typically dominated by loud blockbusters. Besides 12 nominations may have made the film too strong and venturing into backlash territory like when TPOTD received 12 Oscar nominations. It’s over-performance in costumes, song, and score shows immense support but probably the most telling nomination is Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress who was always a fringe contender. The entire family (excluding James Hong) getting nominated at the Oscars and it’s tech over performance makes the film really strong. Usually tech nominations are coattails to Best Picture contenders, but you can tell EEAAO’s nominations were passion picks because the crafts team are literally all unknown members to the branches.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossI don’t understand the Academy sometime. They nominated Ruben Östlund for doing that boring Triangle of Sadness. And you have James Cameron who created a whole new world, created a new technology to film underwater, spent 12 YEARS on his movie, he’s the writer, the director, the producer, the editor and worked with the special effects team and that’s not enough for a nomination. James should have been nominated over this forgettable movie he’s a TRUE director.
He’ll have his time with the next Avatar movies. I do agree though that Triangle of Sadness is boring, and I wouldn’t have personally picked it for the 5th slot. However, the whole 12 years doesn’t really hold any water for you to get a nomination. In the end, it’s the directing that matters. Even if he was part of the writing, editing, and producing team, if the branch thinks his directing was not top 5 material, then it doesn’t matter if he was a part of those teams.
Just realizing that Avatar has less noms than BPWF. It must’ve been #7-#10 in Best Picture while Wakanda Forever was probably close to the top ten, #11-#13
Darling, a single directing win is very unlikely will happen again in a short time.
well, it’s happening again this year with spielberg
I actually think the fact that since last year’s adapted winner was already for a remake, it might actually hurt AQOTWF and Living a bit. Glass onion and Living being non BP nominees with the first being a lone nominee probably takes them out of the race and Women Talking underperformed. I think the fact that Top Gun missed cinematography could give some voters the makeup win here while AQOTWF wins the cinematography that probably would’ve went to Top Gun originally and they’d both walk home with a win. We already criticized CODA for being a TV movie by the books script so it’s not like this group would be completely above giving Top Gun a win.
I could see Adapted potentially being very split. I’m curious about how Living does in Adapted at BAFTA. Kazuo Ishiguro is campaigning a lot and he could peel off votes too.
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