2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 12)

[DanC Joined: Jun 10th, 2020 Topics: 2 Posts: 481 View Predictions]

#1205253064

Since the advent of CCA, no film has ever been nominated for the Best Picture Oscar after receiving just a BAFTA BP nom and missing the CCA+GG+PGA lineups. All Quiet on the Western Front would be the first.

High BAFTA nom count aside, you’ve got to be careful counting on it.

— Matthew Stewart (@MatthewAStewart) January 19, 2023

[estrelas Joined: Jul 25th, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 6824 View Predictions]

#1205253069

DanC wrote:

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Technically speaking, the movie hasn’t been doing that well with the guilds as we thought. If I’m not mistaken, it was only nominated by the CAS. It was even snubbed by the VFX guild. With that said, the movie literally spammed BAFTA. When was the last time a movie did this well there and tanked at the Oscars?

[Victor Joined: Jun 18th, 2020 Topics: 20 Posts: 9353 View Predictions]

#1205253076

Stats are meant to be broken
AQOTWF is in, British voters are clearly passionate about it and will push it.
For my 9th and 10th I’m going with The Whale (PGA) and Women Talking (SAG Ensemble). Could be Glass Onion but that movie came and went and has mixed reception from audiences (even though I liked it). Triangle of Sadness is a question mark to me.

FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, Somebody Somewhere, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.

Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!

[Brayfers Joined: Oct 19th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 1724 View Predictions]

#1205253083

with the PGA miss and BAFTA shut out, Women Talking is sputtering out. It can pretty much only depend the support of the Acting branch for the 10th slot, if its lucky.

Letterboxd: Brayfers

!EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE!
- SEVEN OSCARS
- BEST PICTURE
- Michelle Yeoh, Best Actress
- Ke Huy Quan, Best Supporting Actor
- Jamie Lee Curtis, Best Supporting Actress
- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Best Director & Best Original Screenplay
- Paul Rogers, Best Film Editing

FYC (TV):
- Abbott Elementary
- House of the Dragon
- The White Lotus
- The Last of Us

[String Cheese Theory Joined: Aug 16th, 2020 Topics: 8 Posts: 2107 View Predictions]

#1205253087

lorelei_lor wrote:

Fabelmans bombing here should be a lesson to other filmmakers out there. People are not interested in your upbringing.

People have lost interest in movies about Hollywood and movies about filmmakers. Hopefully biopics will be the next to go.

Here for the comedies

[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4729 View Predictions]

#1205253093

DanC wrote:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1616064004358803457&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldderby.com%2Fforum%2Fmovies%2F2023-oscars-best-picture-and-director-part-12%2F&sessionId=86e636afb01195be5231e711049d32546654bbfe&siteScreenName=GoldDerby&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2b959255e8896%3A1673658205745&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

This is what happens when people can’t read stats properly. GG has disqualified foreign films from making it in the Best Picture lineup and Critics Choice…be serious.

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

[estrelas Joined: Jul 25th, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 6824 View Predictions]

#1205253095

I’ve been thinking this for a while now and today just made me even more confident WT will be a Screenplay+Score contender at best. What  a tank.

[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205253101

estrelas wrote:

I don’t buy Triangle of Sadness in BP. AQOTWF is obviously a lock at this point. It’s probably ahead of some movies we think are locked.

Triangle has not been strong enough to get that spot. It’s looking more like the lone Original Screenplay nomination with hopes that de Leon sneaks in.

[abelfenty Joined: Jul 14th, 2018 Topics: 5 Posts: 1294 View Predictions]

#1205253117

estrelas wrote:

I don’t buy Triangle of Sadness in BP. AQOTWF is obviously a lock at this point. It’s probably ahead of some movies we think are locked.

Then what takes its spot? Women Talking is done. Babylon seems unlikely with its PGA miss. Aftersun was never happening and it certainly isn’t now. Triangle could get a nice package of Picture, Supporting Actress and Screenplay.

[Butz Joined: Oct 15th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1543 View Predictions]

#1205253121

Interesting fun fact: with Colman and Buckley now decidedly out, this will be the first year after the one that came after #oscarssowhite where we have no repeated nominee from the season before.

Edit: in Acting, I should clarify. Obviously, Spielberg is going to repeat.

For Your Consideration:
The Banshees of Inisherin in ALL categories, including:
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Actor (Colin Farrell)
- Best Supporting Actor (Brendan Gleeson)
- Best Supporting Actor (Barry Keoghan)
- Best Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon)
- Best Supporting Actress (Sheila Flitton)
- Best Original Screenplay

Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 3 Posts: 69 View Predictions]

#1205253135

This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.

[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205253151

We’ll have to see who prevails at BAFTA, but this is shaping up to be a pretty split race.

And I really want to drop Avatar from my BP 10 but I’m not brave enough yet.

[estrelas Joined: Jul 25th, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 6824 View Predictions]

#1205253157

abelfenty wrote:

Then what takes its spot? Women Talking is done. Babylon seems unlikely with its PGA miss. Aftersun was never happening and it certainly isn’t now. Triangle could get a nice package of Picture, Supporting Actress and Screenplay.

I don’t know but I’m not sure if I see it. I guess it could but I wouldn’t bet on it personally. Maybe we’ll get a surprise and something we aren’t talking about happens. Weirder things have happened.

[Bonehead Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1698 View Predictions]

#1205253161

estrelas wrote:

Maybe we’ll get a surprise and something we aren’t talking about happens.

Perhaps a critically acclaimed movie with a black protagonist?

[estrelas Joined: Jul 25th, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 6824 View Predictions]

#1205253177

Bonehead wrote:

Perhaps a critically acclaimed movie with a black protagonist?

The Woman King? Yeah, it’s definitely in the running still. SAG ensemble and PGA misses are worrisome though.

Maybe She Said still happens? If Mulligan does get nominated and the Screenplay, I guess it could crack the lineup. If Triangle of Sadness can get nominated that way, I don’t see why something like She Said couldn’t.