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There doesn’t appear to have been any anti-frontrunner/ anti-nom leader tide against EEAAO like we tend to see these days. I’m pretty sure it’s going to win Picture and it has quite a few routes to the win. Supp. Actor is obvious. I think it wins at least 1 of Original or Director, too – so 3 or 4 wins. It could also ‘sweep’ with Yeoh or/ and with a tech or two (Editing and/ or Score, maybe). If it isn’t winning Picture I suspect it will only win Supp. Actor – this seems unlikely to me, although if the Academy leans a certain way this year it is feasible that Spielberg/ Field and McDonagh take Director and OS respectively. It’s still an interesting race, but it feels more EEAAO’s by the day. Banshees hasn’t faltered in itself, but the consensus seems to be celebratory and delighted for EEAAO doing so well, as opposed to targeted critiques attempting to block its win.
Let’s be real Todd Field has no chance.
the anti-frontrunner tide is for people who already got their go-around with the oscar train.
unlike daniels + michelle + jamie + ke + stephanie.
compared to Oscar Winner campion with her Oscar Nominee cumberbatch vehicle.
for a bit, it seemed like sag winner chicago 7 had an edge, with Oscar Winner Sorkin with his Oscar Nominee Cohen being the movie’s acting rep at the oscars.
or Oscar Winner sam mendes. none of the actors got traction, despite having Oscar Winner firth and Oscar Nominee cumberbatch.
or Oscar Winner alfonso cuaron.
Let’s be real Todd Field has no chance.
Sure he does. He’s an actor’s director, (they love him), Tar has performed above expectations and he’s been close before.
The Sunne in Splendour.
I prefer my roses white
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Can anybody tell me why Banshees and Farrell are rising in the odds atm? Did sth happen that I missed? I haven’t been on for a while.
For Your Consideration:
The Banshees of Inisherin in ALL categories, including:
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Actor (Colin Farrell)
- Best Supporting Actor (Brendan Gleeson)
- Best Supporting Actor (Barry Keoghan)
- Best Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon)
- Best Supporting Actress (Sheila Flitton)
- Best Original ScreenplayLetterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges
Can anybody tell me why Banshees and Farrell are rising in the odds atm? Did sth happen that I missed? I haven’t been on for a while.
I think it basically maxed itself out in nominations and has been doing well in the precursors. It and EEAAO are the only movies to hit every major precursor so far (Critics Choice, GG, BAFTA, DGA, PGA, SAG Ensemble). That means, on paper at least, those two movies are looking like they might be our 1 and 2.
I think Todd Field could upset in Best Director after those nominations for Tár in Editing and Cinematography but he needs to win something like BAFTA or DGA to be a real threat.
He’s going to vote split with Ostlund.
FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category
Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song
Edward Berger not nominated this year is a crime
I wonder if The Fabelmans will pull a Power of the Dog and only win Director.
FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category
Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song
I wonder if The Fabelmans will pull a Power of the Dog and only win Director.
That’s what I’m predicting atm.
There doesn’t appear to have been any anti-frontrunner/ anti-nom leader tide against EEAAO like we tend to see these days. I’m pretty sure it’s going to win Picture and it has quite a few routes to the win. Supp. Actor is obvious. I think it wins at least 1 of Original or Director, too – so 3 or 4 wins. It could also ‘sweep’ with Yeoh or/ and with a tech or two (Editing and/ or Score, maybe). If it isn’t winning Picture I suspect it will only win Supp. Actor – this seems unlikely to me, although if the Academy leans a certain way this year it is feasible that Spielberg/ Field and McDonagh take Director and OS respectively. It’s still an interesting race, but it feels more EEAAO’s by the day. Banshees hasn’t faltered in itself, but the consensus seems to be celebratory and delighted for EEAAO doing so well, as opposed to targeted critiques attempting to block its win.
The thing about EEAAO is that it’s so clearly not a movie that was designed to win Oscars, that the most common anti-frontrunner narratives tend not to apply to it.
That plus its Asian-centric cast and queer themes give it a lot of social credit that its main challenger doesn’t have. The reverse is often the case, which is another source of common narratives to try to punch holes in a frontrunner.
If it loses, it will be because it’s too weird for some older Academy voters, which is not the kind of sentiment that gets actively campaigned on in public, it quietly percolates in the background.
I’m just thinking about the likelihoods of each potential EEAAO win:
In the Bag:
1. Supporting ActorLet’s Go:
2. Original Screenplay
3. PictureLET’S GOOOO:
4. Director
5. ActressHypothetical Upsets:
6. Editing
7. Costume Design
8. ScoreDoubt it:
9. Supporting Actress (x2)
10. Original SongDarlings, this year picture and director will be again for two different movies. Spielberg is my predicted choice in director for Divorced Parents Trauma. Your Prime Minister still does not know what to predict in picture.
As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"
The topic ‘2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 12)’ is closed to new replies.
