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2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 5)

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  • wolfali
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    #1205106175

    couldn’t even get in Director at Critics Choice

    Or BAFTA in spite of the film being a jury pick in multiple other categories.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


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    Setia Yasmine Khalil
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    #1205106188

    Predictions for Tar/wins in bold Best Actress Best Picture- top 5 contender Best Screenplay Best Supporting Actress Best Original Screenplay Best Original Score Best Sound Best Editing

    Cinematography and directing?


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    CarlosEdu
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    #1205106260

    I hate to say and maybe I’m alone on this but Polley could miss in Best Director? Still have her in #5 in my predictions but sometimes I feel like she could be the biggest snub here, especially after the reviews saying the movie looks like a play and the cinematography is a problem.


    Heptapod
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    #1205106264

    I hate to say and maybe I’m alone on this but Polley could miss in Best Director? Still have her in #5 in my predictions but sometimes I feel like she could be the biggest snub here, especially after the reviews saying the movie looks like a play and the cinematography is a problem.

    I don’t want to sound like one of *those* people, but unless another female-helmed film catches more major heat in this category, I think Polley is in. I have a hard time seeing the Academy nominating an all-male lineup this year or in the near future.

    I think the big snub is more likely to be Damien Chazelle.

    FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)


    wolfali
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    #1205106306

    I feel like someone from that top 5 is going to get edged out but I can’t figure out who. Spielberg is safe and I’m feeling more bullish about the Daniels as time goes on but I think what makes this more interesting is that all of them seem to have auteur driven passion projects under their hands and I think that sense of snobbery is something we’ve seen the branch really gravitate towards since the membership started diversifying. There isn’t an Aaron Sorkin in this field but that arguably puts more pressure on some of these contenders. Last year many people thought Villeneuve could challenge Campion for the win and that Branagh, PTA and Spielberg were the ones in danger of being snubbed but because Dune was the start of a blockbuster franchise and Villeneuve had been recognised before by the academy (and is probably going to be recognised again for Dune 2) he was the one who get edged out.

    Currently I have Chazelle missing because the bar is much higher for him as a previous winner who will probably be in the conversation again in his career but also because I expect Babylon to be the perennial old age cinema tribute that is hyped up as a massive across the board contender but then barely scrapes above the line nominations. But even then again I wouldn’t say it’s a snub I’m confident in happening.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


    Bonehead
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    #1205106319

    If the only reason you have to not take Polley out of your five is because she’s a woman, then she should be out of your five.

     


    OscarBait
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    #1205106325

    Best Picture

    Armageddon Time
    Babylon
    Cha Cha Real Smooth
    The Fablemans
    She Said
    TÁR
    Till
    Top Gun: Maverick
    The Whale
    The Woman King

    Best Director

    Damien Chazelle, Babylon
    Steven Spielberg, The Fablemans
    Maria Schrader, She Said
    Todd Field, TÁR
    Joseph Kosinsky, Top Gun: Maverick


    OscarBait
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    #1205106327

    If the only reason you have to not take Polley out of your five is because she’s a woman, then she should be out of your five.

    Yeah I really don’t think the directors branch votes that way, if they did Greta Gerwig would’ve been nominated for Little Women.


    kamila
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    #1205106337

    I feel like someone from that top 5 is going to get edged out but I can’t figure out who. Spielberg is safe and I’m feeling more bullish about the Daniels as time goes on but I think what makes this more interesting is that all of them seem to have auteur driven passion projects under their hands and I think that sense of snobbery is something we’ve seen the branch really gravitate towards since the membership started diversifying.

    I’d love to hear your thoughts on Daniels now because I’m feeling the exact opposite as time goes on, especially since I have major doubts that they will get into the DGA 5.

    And last year was a mystery that isn’t offering me much guidance. So few of the films this season feel like director showcases even from the established veterans, and yet the ones that do are potentially polarizing and/or their directors just aren’t carrying the ideal momentum to bet on them strongly (Daniels, Field, Park). and I’ve had Chazelle missing for a while despite the fact that he passes both of those tests I laid out for myself. I agree he has a high bar to cross – maybe even higher than what Iñárritu might need to make it in here – but I’m starting to get a little worried that I’m underestimating him. I imagine PTA and Branagh comfortably got in last year in part because they’re well liked, and sometimes it feels like keeping score on which auteur projects are being better received is the wrong way to go about some of these slots.


    crabbie
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    #1205106343

    I’d love to hear your thoughts on Daniels now because I’m feeling the exact opposite as time goes on, especially since I have major doubts that they will get into the DGA 5. And last year was a mystery that isn’t offering me much guidance. So few of the films this season feel like director showcases even from the established veterans, and yet the ones that do are potentially polarizing and/or their directors just aren’t carrying the ideal momentum to bet on them strongly (Daniels, Field, Park). and I’ve had Chazelle missing for a while despite the fact that he passes both of those tests I laid out for myself. I agree he has a high bar to cross – maybe even higher than what Iñárritu might need to make it in here – but I’m starting to get a little worried that I’m underestimating him. I imagine PTA and Branagh comfortably got in last year in part because they’re well liked, and sometimes it feels like keeping score on which auteur projects are being better received is the wrong way to go about some of these slots.

    Interesting I think The Daniels can make it in at DGA as a quirky directing nomination like Waititi for Jojo Rabbit. I do agree that they are vulnerable though since we still don’t know what way the industry will swing for EEAAO. Chazelle also seems vulnerable as well if Babylon is a total misfire in execution though judging by the trailer, the directing is very flashy and “big”. So I have him in for now. Like others have mentioned, Polley to me is vulnerable due to the cinematography complaints being so pervasive in criticism of her film. I think Polley should be fine since I think she will win quite a sizable amount of critics awards, but i’m not buying the arguments that the directors branch cares about optics. They’ve snubbed Bigelow and Gerwig before for films that should have gotten in director. Field seems like a no brained nomination in director too. I still think an international slot will be open due to the recent explosion of international cinema recognition.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Director: Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss


    Milk Money
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    #1205106359

    To suggest Heder would win director if she was nominated in directing suggests she would have the same passion as Bong Joon-Ho, who won against a Globe, DGA, and Bafta winner (Sam Mendes). People genuinely believe CODA had the same passion as Parasite? CODA was only able to scrape by due to the weakkkk Best Picture slate and lacking passion in general.

    Passion is what put it ahead of the supposed best picture frontrunner POTD, which netted 12 noms. An Apple film isn’t crowned the first streamer to win BP w/o major support. CODA scraped by, really?? Sure, downplay its momentum if it makes you feel better, lol.


    crabbie
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    #1205106373

    Passion is what put it ahead of the supposed best picture frontrunner POTD, which netted 12 noms. An Apple film isn’t crowned the first streamer to win BP w/o major support. CODA scraped by, really?? Sure, downplay its momentum if it makes you feel better, lol.

    lmao just because a film wins Best Picture doesn’t mean it’s going to win every award it is nominated for. Parasite didn’t win editing or production design. Birdman didn’t win any of its acting awards. Next you’re going to suggest Emilia Jones and Marlee Matlin would have won their categories if they were nominated. Please give me a break.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Director: Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss


    Milk Money
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    #1205106375

    If Damian Chazelle and Ang Lee can still win Director despite their films sweeping BP/BD everywhere but eventually losing BP in the end to the eventual BP winner that has more than 3 Oscar nominations, Campion wasn’t going to randomly lose Director to a film that couldn’t even get in Director at Critics Choice or practically any critics circle at the bare minimum.

    The point is La La Land and Life of Pi won other Oscars BESIDES Best Director. Which is partly why it made sense that Spielberg was nipping at her heels in those anonymous ballots. Like I said before, it’s weird to award a film for its direction and absolutely nothing else. That’s a situation that’s ripe for an upset.

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