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2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 5)

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  • Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
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    #1205107493
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.

    Milk Money
    Joined:
    Oct 2nd, 2013
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    #1205107503

    That was really funny, I have to give you that. All that trouble to drag in my language. You tried it tho.

    Also, TPOTD wasn’t my fav movie of the lineup and I did predict CODA’s Oscar sweep. You can talk shit all you want honey, it won’t make your random Heder talk any less delusional. And big LOL at the Sundance Best Director prize. Where were the noms and wins for Directing after that then? Give me a break.

    And I’ll seat down whenever I want.

    Not as funny as you conceding to CODA after low key coming for anyone who dared to even suggest anything but a POTD sweep. Don’t act like we forgot, lol. I’m glad you liked estupido. It’s got a nice ring to it!

    And it wasn’t just the BD prize at Sundance. It also won the Jury and Audience prize trifecta, a first. I saw the buzz forming early on for it, unlike you. Several of those anonymous ballots also questioned why she wasn’t nominated. This sentiment was echoed by actual voters I spoke with as well, clearly disappointed with the director’s branch. By then, the CODA train was in full swing. How many did you speak with? I’ll wait.

    So, still not changing my opinion, estupido! Next time, pull up directly instead of the slick subs.

    W


    Heptapod
    Joined:
    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1205107514

    CODA

    Me the day we all finally move on from CODA vs Power of the Dog to nitpick over some other equally stupid discourse.

    FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)


    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
    Joined:
    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1205107521

    Imagine getting this heated over LAST year’s Director race…

    And more, whether or not the director in question who had almost no chance in hell of even being nominated would have won had they been nominated…

    The fact is that no Director has ever won the Oscar without being nominated at DGA. That’s 74 years. So no Sian Heder wouldn’t have won. That is just too strong of a stat. I literally think that stat may never be broken, it’s that strong. The biggest stat I can think of that has been broken is Globe Supporting Actress winner not missing for over 50 years until Jodie Foster, and that’s a fifth of a century less. You can try, and fail, to argue that CODA was having a surge of support and swept, but in every category it won at the Oscars, it had at least one win at a corresponding precursor (Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor at BAFTA and Picture at PGA). Director did not see any of that similar passion. Your argument has no merit.

    Now shut up about this.

    Top Ten 2022 Films:
    1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
    2. The Fabelmans
    3. The Banshees of Inisherin
    4. The Batman
    5. TAR
    6. Top Gun: Maverick
    7. Bros
    8. The Woman King
    9. Elvis
    10. The Menu


    Milk Money
    Joined:
    Oct 2nd, 2013
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    #1205107529

    Imagine getting this heated over LAST year’s Director race…

    And more, whether or not the director in question who had almost no chance in hell of even being nominated would have won had they been nominated…

    The fact is that no Director has ever won the Oscar without being nominated at DGA. That’s 74 years. So no Sian Heder wouldn’t have won. That is just too strong of a stat. I literally think that stat may never be broken, it’s that strong. The biggest stat I can think of that has been broken is Globe Supporting Actress winner not missing for over 50 years until Jodie Foster, and that’s a fifth of a century less. You can try, and fail, to argue that CODA was having a surge of support and swept, but in every category it won at the Oscars, it had at least one win at a corresponding precursor (Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor at BAFTA and Picture at PGA). Director did not see any of that similar passion. Your argument has no merit.

    Now shut up about this.

    Shut up?? How about you follow your own advice, bud. And here you guys go with stats. They’re made to be broken! CODA itself broke a major one with only three nominations. You all really overestimate how much actual voters care about any of that, lol. The CODA buzz peaked late and at the right time. I didn’t mind Jane winning, but she was not as much of a lock as some keep insisting. Especially with the overall weak support of her film and the backlash from that speech, which I know for a fact turned some off.


    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
    Joined:
    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1205107554

    Shut up?? How about you follow your own advice, bud. And here you guys go with stats. They’re made to be broken! CODA itself broke a major one with only three nominations. You all really overestimate how much actual voters care about any of that, lol. The CODA buzz peaked late and at the right time. I didn’t mind Jane winning, but she was not as much of a lock as some keep insisting. Especially with the overall weak support of her film and the backlash from that speech, which I know for a fact turned some off.

    One, don’t take that tone with me. My rudeness is warranted as you’re being an insufferable prick, bashing people for arguing against your stupid notion. Yours is not.

    Two, they’re also made, principally at that, to make arguments backed up by evidence too.

    Three, it did, but only in regards to the Oscars themselves, not between the Oscars and precursors which is a stronger relationship for prognosticating since it’s less internal.

    Four, I’ve never seen anybody say that voters care about stats. Voters don’t. But stats give us an idea of the minds of voters.

    Five, this is not a good enough argument to say Heder would’ve won lol. 

    She probably wasn’t a lock, but she was more of a lock than Heder was even a possibility of a win.

    You need to do some research on reasoning and fallacies, because denying what everyone’s been saying is now making you look worse than ignorant: just plain stupid.

    Now, I think I made myself clear before, but just to reiterate: SHUT UP ABOUT THIS.

    Top Ten 2022 Films:
    1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
    2. The Fabelmans
    3. The Banshees of Inisherin
    4. The Batman
    5. TAR
    6. Top Gun: Maverick
    7. Bros
    8. The Woman King
    9. Elvis
    10. The Menu


    Milk Money
    Joined:
    Oct 2nd, 2013
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    Posts:
    #1205107576

    One, don’t take that tone with me. My rudeness is warranted as you’re being an insufferable prick, bashing people for arguing against your stupid notion. Yours is not.

    Two, they’re also made, principally at that, to make arguments backed up by evidence too.

    Three, it did, but only in regards to the Oscars themselves, not between the Oscars and precursors which is a stronger relationship for prognosticating since it’s less internal.

    Four, I’ve never seen anybody say that voters care about stats. Voters don’t. But stats give us an idea of the minds of voters.

    Five, this is not a good enough argument to say Heder would’ve won lol.

    She probably wasn’t a lock, but she was more of a lock than Heder was even a possibility of a win.

    You need to do some research on reasoning and fallacies, because denying what everyone’s been saying is now making you look worse than ignorant: just plain stupid.

    Now, I think I made myself clear before, but just to reiterate: SHUT UP ABOUT THIS.

    Fuck you and you STFU. I’ll use any tone I want to while responding to your ass. You got disrespectful with me first and I got disrespectful right on back, fucker. You’re not the moderator here either, so you can’t tell anyone to shut up. Sorry.

    Research you say? How many voters do you actually talk to irl? I guarantee less than I.

    You wrote a long ass thesis on stats that actual Academy members would laugh at. Most of them hardly even consider them with casting their ballots. For example, posters on this very board swore that statistics would nix Regina King’s chances even though I repeatedly said that the support was there for a win. But do you. Lemme guess, you probably think there’s no Netflix bias in BP either, right, lol?


    Cordelia
    Joined:
    Jul 15th, 2018
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    #1205107579

    This is the thread for 2023’s Oscar ceremony, not the 2022 one. Move on nerds.

    My Favourite Albums

    Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

    Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

    Since I Left You - The Avalanches

    Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

    Vespertine - Bjork


    Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe
    Joined:
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    #1205107592

    Fuck you and you STFU. I’ll use any tone I want to while responding to your ass. You got disrespectful with me first and I got disrespectful right on back, fucker. You’re not the moderator here either, so you can’t tell anyone to shut up. Sorry. Research you say? How many voters do you actually talk to irl? I guarantee less than I. You wrote a long ass thesis on stats that actual Academy members would laugh at. Most of them hardly even consider them with casting their ballots. For example, posters on this very board swore that statistics would nix Regina King’s chances even though I repeatedly said that the support was enough for a win. Lemme guess, you probably think there’s no Netflix bias in BP either, right, lol?

    Holy shit this is too far. I actually reported this because it’s really egregious. This is the last time I’ll interact with you. I suggest therapy, as well as a logic class because you engage in fallacious thinking (ad hominem, argument from anecdote, non sequitur, straw man, among many others).

    Top Ten 2022 Films:
    1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
    2. The Fabelmans
    3. The Banshees of Inisherin
    4. The Batman
    5. TAR
    6. Top Gun: Maverick
    7. Bros
    8. The Woman King
    9. Elvis
    10. The Menu


    Milk Money
    Joined:
    Oct 2nd, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1205107600

    Holy shit this is too far. I actually reported this because it’s really egregious. This is the last time I’ll interact with you. I suggest therapy, as well as a logic class because you engage in fallacious thinking (ad hominem, argument from anecdote, non sequitur, straw man, among many others).

    And I suggest you not play moderator and demand posters to “shut up about this.” Don’t play victim. I don’t come for anyone unless they come for me first. Count stats, but keep your rude ass comments to yourself. Goodnight.


    Shrek Superslam
    Joined:
    Feb 7th, 2019
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    #1205107654

    I think only Top Gun: Maverick, Inisherin, Fabelmans and Everything Everywhere can win here, at this stage…

    babylon is probably gonna flop at the box office and even without that, I can’t imagine Chazelle winning Director twice so soon, even if I’m fully anticipating it to be one of the best of the year… If Tarantino couldn’t win for his Hollywood opus, then I don’t think Chazelle stands that much of a chance.

    TAR isn’t a movie that’ll appeal to general audiences. Like Power Of The Dog, but to the nth degree. I’m not even certain it’ll get nominated.

    Women Talking isn’t gonna happen either. The direction seems to be too insular. And I don’t think the Oscars are gonna give it to a film that sounds this maudlin. Nearly all best picture winners are films that are somewhat crowd pleasing. And the ones that aren’t are usually exceptionally well directed and have great cinematography… Women Talking, it doesn’t sound like it’s the case with this one.


    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1205107663

    TAR is going to be nominated, come on now. It placed in the top 2 of Telluride Audience polls and Top Gun is NOT going to win Best Picture in spite of the stans pushing it.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Director: Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss


    MD
    Joined:
    Dec 25th, 2017
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    #1205107670

    I think only Top Gun: Maverick, Inisherin, Fabelmans and Everything Everywhere can win here, at this stage…

    babylon is probably gonna flop at the box office and even without that, I can’t imagine Chazelle winning Director twice so soon, even if I’m fully anticipating it to be one of the best of the year… If Tarantino couldn’t win for his Hollywood opus, then I don’t think Chazelle stands that much of a chance.

    TAR isn’t a movie that’ll appeal to general audiences. Like Power Of The Dog, but to the nth degree. I’m not even certain it’ll get nominated.

    Women Talking isn’t gonna happen either. The direction seems to be too insular. And I don’t think the Oscars are gonna give it to a film that sounds this maudlin. Nearly all best picture winners are films that are somewhat crowd pleasing. And the ones that aren’t are usually exceptionally well directed and have great cinematography… Women Talking, it doesn’t sound like it’s the case with this one.

    The Power of the Dog got 12 Oscar nominations and it was less accessible and far more demanding than TAR. At this point thinking the best reviewed movie we have in the race is not happening is a bit silly. Sorry. I know you usually like posting dissenting opinions here and sometimes they do make sense but this is not it.


    The Oscarguy
    Joined:
    Jan 11th, 2021
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    #1205107722

    I really don’t get the TÁR doubt. People have tried with reasonings of too cold, heady etc. but AMPAS does like these super critically acclaimed high brow-leaning pieces a lot. They have a hard time winning Best Picture, but they will always receive plenty of nomination, The Power of the Dog last year being the obvious example. This Academy also nominated Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley over Tick, Tick…BOOM and Being the Ricardos, they will obviously go for TÁR too c’mon.

    Most compelling suggestion I’ve heard is that it’s Carol/Foxcatcher type of deal but those movies would’ve gotten nominated in the full lineup of 10.


    NevadaR
    Joined:
    Jan 13th, 2018
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    #1205107730

    I really don’t get the TÁR doubt. People have tried with reasonings of too cold, heady etc. but AMPAS does like these super critically acclaimed high brow-leaning pieces a lot. They have a hard time winning Best Picture, but they will always receive plenty of nomination, The Power of the Dog last year being the obvious example. This Academy also nominated Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley over Tick, Tick…BOOM and Being the Ricardos, they will obviously go for TÁR too c’mon. Most compelling suggestion I’ve heard is that it’s Carol/Foxcatcher type of deal but those movies would’ve gotten nominated in the full lineup of 10.

    Exactly it’s AMPAS not the MTV Movie Awards. They’ve always enjoyed their high brow food. Sure, these movies don’t usually win BP but they do well in terms of noms.

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