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EEAAO
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
TÁR
Babylon
Top Gun: Maverick
She Said
The Woman King
All Quiet on the Western FrontSpielberg
McDonagh
Daniels
Polley
ChazelleDifferent from what I have in my hub, for obvious reasons
1- Everything Everywhere All At Once
2- The Fabelmans
3- Women Talking
4- The Banshees of Inisherin
5- Top Gun: Maverick
6- TAR
7- Elvis
8- Babylon
9- Avatar: The Way of Water
10- Decision To Leave1- Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
2- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
3- Sarah Polley – Women Talking
4- James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
5- Park Chan Wook – Decision To LeaveDarling,
PICTURE
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Women Talking
Babylon
Top Gun: Maverick
TÁR
Elvis
White Noise
She Said
Decision To LeaveDIRECTING
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Park Chan-wook, Decision To Leave
Edward Berger, All Quiet On The Western FrontPICTURE
1. The Fabelmans (Universal)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Disney)
3. Women Talking (Amazon)
4. TÁR (Universal)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
7. Living (Sony)
8. Babylon (Paramount)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount)
10. Avatar: The Water of Water (Disney)DIRECTOR
1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
2. Todd Field – TÁR
3. Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Sarah Polley – Women Talking
5. Damien Chazelle – BabylonPicture 1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) 2. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) 3. Women Talking (United Artists Releasing) 4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) 5. Top Gun : Maverick (Paramount Pictures) 6. TÁR (Focus Features) 7. She Said (Universal Pictures) 8. Glass Onion : A Knives Out Story (Netflix) 9. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) 10. Decision to Leave (Neon) Director 1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans 2. Sarah Polley, Women Talking 3. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once 4. Todd Field, TÁR 5. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave 6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon 7. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin 8. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness 9. James Cameron, Avatar : The Way of Water 10. Maria Schrader, She Said
No The Woman King?
Once there was only Dark. If you ask me, the Light's winning.
Following up on the last several posts, I agree that we should wait to see White Noise’s reception at the NYFF before drawing any firm conclusions about the film’s Oscar prospects, but if White Noise isn’t better received there, then I think we can conclude that it definitely won’t be an Oscar player because NYC is the filmmakers’ home turf, and many if not most NYFF attendees share the taste and sensibilities of the movie’s target audience.
NYFF is its best chance and that’s the reason I’ve kept Driver in this whole time, but I already kind of think it’s out of the Best Picture hunt even if it has a good reception at NYFF. I don’t see how it somehow commands a lot of passion given how muted the Venice reception was and it won’t be win competitive for categories it could possibly get (Original Screenplay, Actor, etc). I think most of the films floating around the 8th to 10th slots in most people’s predictions have at least one of those two criteria met. It’s the same reason I’ve kept She Said out of my predictions as of late.
However, it will have a bunch of screenings during NYFF so if people like it, they can make a lot of noise.
No The Woman King?
Waiting to see how strong its legs end up being. It’s somewhere in my top 15 though at the moment with Avatar 2 and The Whale.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
NYFF is its best chance and that’s the reason I’ve kept Driver in this whole time, but I already kind of think it’s out of the Best Picture hunt even if it has a good reception at NYFF. I don’t see how it somehow commands a lot of passion given how muted the Venice reception was and it won’t be win competitive for categories it could possibly get (Original Screenplay, Actor, etc). I think most of the films floating around the 8th to 10th slots in most people’s predictions have at least one of those two criteria met. It’s the same reason I’ve kept She Said out of my predictions as of late. However, it will have a bunch of screenings during NYFF so if people like it, they can make a lot of noise.
I don’t understand your comment in relation to She Said. We haven’t seen any reviews yet so I think it’s currently premature to conclude that it definitely won’t be win competitive for categories it could possibly get in.
Moreover, at this point, I don’t know that there are 10 (or 5, depending on the category) choices that are WIN competitive, even if I think they are nomination competitive.
I believe White Noise has more chances than Bardo. Between these two films I believe that Netflix will prioritize the first.
I don’t understand your comment in relation to She Said. We haven’t seen any reviews yet so I think it’s currently premature to conclude that it definitely won’t be win competitive for categories it could possibly get in. Moreover, at this point, I don’t know that there are 10 (or 5, depending on the category) choices that are WIN competitive, even if I think they are nomination competitive.
I don’t think there are 10 either, but my point was just that the films at the bottom half to third of the Best Picture category are playing a different game to get into the slate than the films with broad consensus. There’s a reason that the films around 9-14 in the prediction center are more populist films that are doing well at the box office (The Woman King), getting rave reviews (The Woman King, Glass Onion, Triangle of Sadness), or have a serious contender in a category that might pull it up (The Whale).
She Said, which is also in that corridor, kind of stands out because I question whether it can sort into any of those buckets. To your point, my assessment of She Said could be way too premature. It’s definitely not fair to compare reception of a trailer to reviews, but it was markedly ho hum.
I don’t understand your comment in relation to She Said. We haven’t seen any reviews yet so I think it’s currently premature to conclude that it definitely won’t be win competitive for categories it could possibly get in. Moreover, at this point, I don’t know that there are 10 (or 5, depending on the category) choices that are WIN competitive, even if I think they are nomination competitive.
I don’t think it’s premature at all. If She Said ever was win competitive in any category, it would be in ATL categories. In looking at those categories, it’s clear She Said won’t be win competitive. Schrader just is not winning for Director. Polley’s got Adapted on lock. Actress is def not Kazan or Mulligan. And Supporting Actress has had Williams’ name attached since The Fabelmans was announced. Compare that to the stronger films that are in the winning conversation for at least one thing: Western Front (International Feature), Avatar (VFX), Babylon (Production Design), The Banshees of Inisherin (Original), Elvis (Actor), Everything Everywhere All at Once (Picture), The Fabelmans (Director), TAR (Actress), Maverick (Sound), The Whale (Actor), The Woman King (Actress), Women Talking (Adapted).
As for whether there’s passion behind it, that is yet to be seen, but the trailer didn’t inspire much confidence. And if something with passion would get in, why wouldn’t it be the film that placed at TIFF or the Palme d’Or winner?
Once there was only Dark. If you ask me, the Light's winning.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.I don’t think it’s premature at all. If She Said ever was win competitive in any category, it would be in ATL categories. In looking at those categories, it’s clear She Said won’t be win competitive. Schrader just is not winning for Director. Polley’s got Adapted on lock. Actress is def not Kazan or Mulligan. And Supporting Actress has had Williams’ name attached since The Fabelmans was announced. Compare that to the stronger films that are in the winning conversation for at least one thing: Western Front (International Feature), Avatar (VFX), Babylon (Production Design), The Banshees of Inisherin (Original), Elvis (Actor), Everything Everywhere All at Once (Picture), The Fabelmans (Director), TAR (Actress), Maverick (Sound), The Whale (Actor), The Woman King (Actress), Women Talking (Adapted).
As for whether there’s passion behind it, that is yet to be seen, but the trailer didn’t inspire much confidence. And if something with passion would get in, why wouldn’t it be the film that placed at TIFF or the Palme d’Or winner?
I don’t expect She Said to win any Oscars but I think that currently it has a realistic shot at nominations for BP, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actress, and possibly more. I was not blown away by its trailer but I also was underwhelmed by The Woman King’s trailer and that movie turned out to be MUCH better than I expected. I was also underwhelmed by the trailer for The Fabelmans and I suspect I’ll also like that movie more than I liked its trailer.
Obviously, I’m not saying She Said will turn out to be CODA but I am struck that CODA had three Oscar nominations, only one of which, at most, anyone thought was win competitive in September of last year— they’re the same type of nominations that She Said might get.
I readily concede that She Said might be terrible, or more likely good but not great, but I thought its trailer reminded me a lot of Spotlight, which won Best Picture. Yes, She Said’s subject matter may annoy and alienate a lot of AMPAS voters for a variety of reasons, some legitimate and some not, but if well made, it may also incur substantial support, some out of guilt.
My only point is that we still don’t know enough to make DEFINITIVE conclusions.
Women Talking is definitely not a lock to win Adapted Screenplay. It’s only September, it’s too early to declare that category locked when we haven’t even seen films like She Said and Till.
Till is original or adapted ?
<p style=”text-align: left;”>to be fair she said could be competitive in screenplay especially at BAFTA and also sag ensemble it’s not eligible for WGA</p>
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