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2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 5)

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  • Norma Jeane
    Joined:
    Sep 6th, 2022
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    #1205097828

    Elvis is being nominated and Warner is going to do a big campaign. I count at least 7 nominations.


    Sir Shaw
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    Aug 1st, 2019
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    #1205097865

    Not really, no. It earned $6.9M last Friday (incl. Thursday previews) and if you add Thurs. + Fri. this week it made around $4.1M. That’s not a bad drop-off, especially since there is more competition this weekend. It will probably do better Saturday & Sunday anyway–which is when the churchgoers go–and still nab around $10-11M, which it was always projected to get.

    And is pretty much on par with Where the Crawdads Sing 10 day total of $38.35m


    Frank2803
    Joined:
    Apr 5th, 2021
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    #1205097889

    After going to the re-release, I was reminded of what made Avatar such an event. It is just an extraordinary movie. I see no reason why Avatar 2 shouldn’t be in contention unless it literally gets reviled. What the first had going for it (revolutionary 3D mo-cap visual effects), the second one also has (revolutionary 3D underwater mo-cap visual effects). Doubt it at your own peril. It’s the same thing that happened to Avatar and the same thing that happened to Titanic. Look what happened with them.

    Yup I just saw Way of the Water clip. Cinematography and Visual Effects Oscars are pretty much a lock.

    I’ll go ahead and predict Best Picture and Director nods off that 5 minute clip


    Uri Urusha
    Joined:
    Sep 12th, 2022
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    #1205097921

    James cameron has 21 oscar from only 7 films he directed .its always funny to me when people don’t even include him in predictions.

    7 film,21 oscar.


    gorman
    Joined:
    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1205098012
    1. Women Talking
    2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
    3. The Fabelmans
    4. Babylon
    5. The Banshees of Inisherin
    6. TAR
    7. Top Gun: Maverick
    8. Avatar: The Way of Water
    9. She Said
    10. Empire of Light

    I’m still set on that top 7. The way the race has shifted makes me think She Said and Empire of Light are back in. The more I think about the former the less I see Hollywood missing a chance to applaud itself, even if I only have it getting 2 noms right now. Empire of Light I just about think can get Actress, Score and Cinematography, which I fancy to be enough. Avatar seems more and more likely as we close in on its release and I’m close to booting out a director for Cameron.

    Decision to Leave is a bit of an unknown quantity which I have sitting in 11th for now – I suspect critics will be high on it, which will help it a lot.  I don’t have enough confidence in one particular Netflix release yet, but whichever they prioritise will pose some threat, even if I’m increasingly of the belief they’re just going to have a bad season. I think Black Panther has a decent shot too, again the closer we get to its release the more it feels like it will have a big impact. My personal field is thinning down though – The Woman King is the only other film I see vying for a spot really.


    gorman
    Joined:
    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1205098028

    Trying to think about what will lead critics award wins in different categories because I have too much free time. Picture is obviously quite difficult, I feel like a lot of regionals will go with Women Talking and EEAAO but the bigger  groups will lean more TAR/ Decision to Leave. Director I reckon Field and Park, maybe Polley but the cinematography gives me pause.

    Actress you’d bet your house on Blanchett leading, and I suspect Yeoh won’t be too far behind. I think Tang Wei takes one of the Trifecta though and does solidly across the board. Actor seems pretty clearly Farrell at the moment – I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him sweep the Trifecta, although I think quite a few regionals will go with Fraser. The only others I see picking up much steam with major groups are Park Hae-il and Song Kang-ho, Butler will do okay with regionals.

    I still think Michelle Williams will take home most of the Supporting Actress prizes. If they tow the Academy line, then I think that category will be all over the place with Foy narrowly leading. Supporting Actor I can see a push pretty easily developing for Quan, although I think Gleeson does well with the bigger groups. I’d say Brian Tyree Henry too but that movie may fall by the (cause)wayside.

    Original seems like it’ll be a fight between EEAAO and Banshees that the former edges all the way up to the Oscars. Adapted is a Women Talking landslide followed by… I guess, Happening if it’s eligible.


    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1205098031

    Empire of Light? That ship has sailed long ago. Don’t really understand the confidence in score because we’ve seen the music branch snub films the industry did not respond well to. First Man winning at the Globes and being snubbed comes to mind. The French Dispatch is another recent example. Colman usually competes with the veteran bloc of voters that will back Blanchett and Williams this time around. The British bloc will certainly rally behind Blanchett and to some extent—Margot Robbie as well.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Director: Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss


    gorman
    Joined:
    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1205098037

    Empire of Light? That ship has sailed long ago. Don’t really understand the confidence in score because we’ve seen the music branch snub films the industry did not respond well to. First Man winning at the Globes and being snubbed comes to mind. The French Dispatch is another recent example. Colman usually competes with the veteran bloc of voters that will back Blanchett and Williams this time around. The British bloc will certainly rally behind Blanchett and to some extent—Margot Robbie as well.

    I’m not at all set on it, I just think a certain % of voters will like it and it often seems like a fairly unlikely contender slides into that 10th spot based on respect for its craft and the people involved. I could very easily see it being replaced in my next predictions once we get a bit more clarity on some films, but I don’t know if its ship has sailed – I’m still backing it for that trio of noms at least. I get the doubt though, I mostly share it, maybe I’m just too attached to the 100/1 odds I have on it and justifying keeping it in to myself.


    Bonehead
    Joined:
    Jan 20th, 2021
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    #1205098053

    Living is starting to give Philomena + The Father

    Buzz is quiet right now in September, but when the holidays roll around it could be a much bigger Picture contender than people realize


    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1205098058

    Living is starting to give Philomena + The Father

    When Nighy wins the Oscar after everyone has argued over Butler, Farrell and Fraser…

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.


    Setia Yasmine Khalil
    Joined:
    Jan 14th, 2022
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    #1205098084

    Trying to think about what will lead critics award wins in different categories because I have too much free time. Picture is obviously quite difficult, I feel like a lot of regionals will go with Women Talking and EEAAO but the bigger groups will lean more TAR/ Decision to Leave. Director I reckon Field and Park, maybe Polley but the cinematography gives me pause. Actress you’d bet your house on Blanchett leading, and I suspect Yeoh won’t be too far behind. I think Tang Wei takes one of the Trifecta though and does solidly across the board. Actor seems pretty clearly Farrell at the moment – I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him sweep the Trifecta, although I think quite a few regionals will go with Fraser. The only others I see picking up much steam with major groups are Park Hae-il and Song Kang-ho, Butler will do okay with regionals. I still think Michelle Williams will take home most of the Supporting Actress prizes. If they tow the Academy line, then I think that category will be all over the place with Foy narrowly leading. Supporting Actor I can see a push pretty easily developing for Quan, although I think Gleeson does well with the bigger groups. I’d say Brian Tyree Henry too but that movie may fall by the (cause)wayside. Original seems like it’ll be a fight between EEAAO and Banshees that the former edges all the way up to the Oscars. Adapted is a Women Talking landslide followed by… I guess, Happening if it’s eligible.

    Living and if it’s good Till can also win some regionals in adapted


    DanC
    Joined:
    Jun 10th, 2020
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    #1205098140

    Finally watched The Woman King. It was just great to see audiences fully enjoy a historical epic these days. There’s definitely a path for this crowdpleaser in the BP race considering its below the line potential and box office legs. Viola Davis is a likely contender. Lashana Lynch & Thuso Mbedu were just as excellent but I’m worried they might get lost in the shuffle. John Boyega’s good but a nomination for that character would be a “Huh?” moment.

    Before the movie itself, they showed the trailers for a bunch of contenders and half of awards prognosticating is just reading the room so that’s what I did. Till had the most palpable interest out of all of them so maybe we’re underestimating that one. She Said did ok. Tar was just met with complete bewilderment; I don’t want to be a doomsayer based on one crowd but critics groups better start rallying.


    Setia Yasmine Khalil
    Joined:
    Jan 14th, 2022
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    #1205098330

    Finally watched The Woman King. It was just great to see audiences fully enjoy a historical epic these days. There’s definitely a path for this crowdpleaser in the BP race considering its below the line potential and box office legs. Viola Davis is a likely contender. Lashana Lynch & Thuso Mbedu were just as excellent but I’m worried they might get lost in the shuffle. John Boyega’s good but a nomination for that character would be a “Huh?” moment. Before the movie itself, they showed the trailers for a bunch of contenders and half of awards prognosticating is just reading the room so that’s what I did. Till had the most palpable interest out of all of them so maybe we’re underestimating that one. She Said did ok. Tar was just met with complete bewilderment; I don’t want to be a doomsayer based on one crowd but critics groups better start rallying.

    i am toying with she said and Till they can either have 6 noms or 0 noms depends of industry and critics response


    LAINELAVIGNE
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    Apr 27th, 2022
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    #1205098342

    Babylon might tank very hard and be a failed oscar-bait. Reminds me of Cats.


    Jaket1991
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    Sep 12th, 2018
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    #1205098346

    Babylon might tank very hard and be a failed oscar-bait. Reminds me of Cats.

    Are your arms long enough for that reach? Cats was another level of bad

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